Week ahead: Trump trade, inflation data, Disney earnings

The fallout from the US election, Trump Trade, and the Federal Reserve decision continue to drive price action, but this week, the focus shifts to some more mundane economic data. In the US, consumer price inflation and retail sales figures will be among the highlights. In the UK, wage growth and employment figures will be pored over in the wake of the Bank of England decision and recent Budget.

Here are the week’s key events:

Monday, Nov 11th: After the US Election

After the excitement of the US presidential elections last week, we’re back to the more mundane this week, and there are few more humdrum bits of data than the New Zealand inflation expectations to get the week going. It’s a bond market holiday in the US for Veteran’s Day, but the Cleveland Fed’s quarterly inflation expectations survey should be worth watching. The stock market remains open and we continue to monitor for volatility in the wake of the election.

Tuesday, November 12th: German CPI & UK Employment

Germany’s final CPI inflation report is due ahead of UK employment figures, which will be closely watched as they come in the wake of the recent Budget and BoE decision. UK inflation has started to come down below the BoE’s target, so markets will be eyeing wage data for clues about whether this can continue, particularly given the government raised the minimum wage significantly. Earnings are due from Shopify, Spotify, The Home Depot, Marathon Digital and Occidental Petroleum.

Wednesday, November 13th: US Consumer Inflation Data

US consumer inflation is the big ticket item on Wednesday. The September Consumer Price Index rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year, which was slightly higher than expected. Although it declined from the 2.5% registered in the prior month, core inflation accelerated to 3.3% from 3.2%. “The uptick in core CPI reminds us that inflation pressure hasn’t fully dissipated, which should keep the Fed on a gradual pace of rate cuts going forward,” JPMorgan analysts wrote at the time.

Thursday, November 14th: Global GDP & Earnings

Australian employment figures set the tone for the Asian session, ahead of UK GDP figures due out ahead of the market open in Europe. Producer price inflation data from the US will form the focus for the session later on. Earnings season on Wall Street is nearing its end, but The Walt Disney Company, JD.com, and Applied Materials are due to report earnings.

Friday, November 15th: China and US Retail Data

China’s industrial production data and retail sales figures provide the latest snapshot of the state of the world’s second-largest economy. Then, it’s the turn of the UK to release retail sales data ahead of the main event on Wall Street. US retail sales in August were stronger than expected, rising by 0.1% month-on-month vs. the –0.2% consensus. US industrial production data and the Empire State manufacturing index will provide some more colour.

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