Sunday Mar 27 2022 07:41
11 min
With the Federal Reserve going all-in with the hawkish language, traders will be watching a barrel-load of key US economic data this week for clues as to the likely course of action by the central bank in the months ahead. PCE inflation, PMI releases and the all-important nonfarm payrolls report mean this will be a busy week ahead.
Inflation
US CPI inflation hit 7.9% in February, the highest level for 40 years. Now the focus will be on this week’s PCE inflation report, which is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.
Last month’s report covering the month of January showed the PCE price index increased 6.1 percent from one year ago, reflecting increases in both goods and services. Energy prices increased 25.9 percent while food prices increased 6.7 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index for January increased 5.2 percent from one year ago.
Market pricing suggests the Fed could do two back-to-back 50bps hikes at the next two meetings. Recent rhetoric from several Fed officials indicate growing support for a more hawkish move. Jay Powell left the door open to 50bps hikes last week, saying inflation was much too high. The core PCE inflation number will help policymakers decide.
Jobs
The jobs report has arguably taken on a little less significance of late, since we know the labour market is extremely tight and inflation is the main worry for the Fed. The last two reports have indicated very strong labour market growth at the start of the year and this trend is likely to Nevertheless, there is still a tendency for volatility around the release and traders will be paying extra close attention to the wage data for signs of a wage price spiral so feared by policymakers. continue.
Other data
Market participants will also be watching for the ISM manufacturing PMI from the US, as well as the Chicago PMI. Ahead of the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, we get the ADP jobs number, whilst JOLTS job openings are released on Tuesday.
Ukraine
Oil markets and other commodities will continue to remain sensitive headlines from the Ukraine conflict. Peace talks have yielded little and increasing concerns about tightness in the physical market were evident last week with steep backwardation emerging again in the futures curve.
Major economic data
| Sun Mar 27 | 2:00am | CHF | Daylight Saving Time Shift |
| EUR | Daylight Saving Time Shift | ||
| GBP | Daylight Saving Time Shift | ||
| Mon Mar 28 | Tentative | EUR | German Import Prices m/m |
| 12:00pm | GBP | BOE Gov Bailey Speaks | |
| 1:30pm | USD | Goods Trade Balance | |
| USD | Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m | ||
| Tue Mar 29 | 12:30am | JPY | Unemployment Rate |
| 12:50am | JPY | BOJ Summary of Opinions | |
| 1:30am | AUD | Retail Sales m/m | |
| 7:00am | EUR | German GfK Consumer Climate | |
| EUR | German Retail Sales m/m | ||
| GBP | Nationwide HPI m/m | ||
| 9:30am | GBP | M4 Money Supply m/m | |
| GBP | Mortgage Approvals | ||
| GBP | Net Lending to Individuals m/m | ||
| 2:00pm | USD | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | |
| USD | HPI m/m | ||
| USD | S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y | ||
| 3:00pm | USD | JOLTS Job Openings | |
| USD | CB Consumer Confidence | ||
| 10:45pm | NZD | Building Consents m/m | |
| Wed Mar 30 | 12:01am | GBP | BRC Shop Price Index y/y |
| 12:50am | JPY | Retail Sales y/y | |
| 1:00am | NZD | ANZ Business Confidence | |
| All Day | EUR | German Prelim CPI m/m | |
| 8:00am | CHF | KOF Economic Barometer | |
| EUR | Spanish Flash CPI y/y | ||
| 9:00am | CHF | Credit Suisse Economic Expectations | |
| 10:10am | GBP | MPC Member Broadbent Speaks | |
| Tentative | EUR | Italian 10-y Bond Auction | |
| 1:15pm | USD | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | |
| 1:30pm | USD | Final GDP q/q | |
| USD | Final GDP Price Index q/q | ||
| 2:00pm | CHF | SNB Quarterly Bulletin | |
| 3:30pm | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | |
| Thu Mar 31 | 12:50am | JPY | Prelim Industrial Production m/m |
| 1:30am | AUD | Building Approvals m/m | |
| AUD | Private Sector Credit m/m | ||
| 2:00am | CNH | Manufacturing PMI | |
| CNH | Non-Manufacturing PMI | ||
| 6:00am | JPY | Housing Starts y/y | |
| 7:00am | GBP | Current Account | |
| GBP | Final GDP q/q | ||
| GBP | Revised Business Investment q/q | ||
| 7:45am | EUR | French Consumer Spending m/m | |
| EUR | French Prelim CPI m/m | ||
| 8:55am | EUR | German Unemployment Change | |
| 9:00am | EUR | Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate | |
| 10:00am | EUR | Italian Prelim CPI m/m | |
| EUR | Unemployment Rate | ||
| Tentative | GBP | 10-y Bond Auction | |
| Tentative | EUR | German 30-y Bond Auction | |
| 12:30pm | USD | Challenger Job Cuts y/y | |
| 1:30pm | CAD | GDP m/m | |
| USD | Core PCE Price Index m/m | ||
| USD | Unemployment Claims | ||
| USD | Personal Income m/m | ||
| USD | Personal Spending m/m | ||
| 2:00pm | USD | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | |
| 2:45pm | USD | Chicago PMI | |
| 3:30pm | USD | Natural Gas Storage | |
| 4:00pm | CHF | Gov Board Member Maechler Speaks | |
| Tentative | CAD | Annual Budget Release | |
| 10:30pm | AUD | AIG Manufacturing Index | |
| Fri Apr 1 | 12:50am | JPY | Tankan Manufacturing Index |
| JPY | Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index | ||
| 1:30am | JPY | Final Manufacturing PMI | |
| 2:45am | CNH | Caixin Manufacturing PMI | |
| 6:30am | AUD | Commodity Prices y/y | |
| 7:45am | EUR | French Gov Budget Balance | |
| 8:15am | EUR | Spanish Manufacturing PMI | |
| 8:30am | CHF | Manufacturing PMI | |
| 8:45am | EUR | Italian Manufacturing PMI | |
| 8:50am | EUR | French Final Manufacturing PMI | |
| 8:55am | EUR | German Final Manufacturing PMI | |
| 9:00am | EUR | Final Manufacturing PMI | |
| 9:30am | GBP | Final Manufacturing PMI | |
| 10:00am | EUR | CPI Flash Estimate y/y | |
| EUR | Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y | ||
| 1:30pm | USD | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | |
| USD | Non-Farm Employment Change | ||
| USD | Unemployment Rate | ||
| 2:30pm | CAD | Manufacturing PMI | |
| 2:45pm | USD | Final Manufacturing PMI | |
| 3:00pm | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI | |
| USD | Construction Spending m/m | ||
| USD | ISM Manufacturing Prices | ||
| All Day | USD | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | |
| Sat Apr 2 | 3:00pm | NZD | Daylight Saving Time Shift |
| 5:00pm | AUD | Daylight Saving Time Shift | |
| 6:00pm | USD | FOMC Member Williams Speaks |
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