Week Ahead: ECB to tilt after strategic shift?

The ECB clarifies its policy position following June’s strategic shift this week. Data is dominated by UK monthly retail sales following a bumper second quarter, and a flurry of PMI reports. Meanwhile, Q2 earnings season heats up on Wall Street.

Let’s start with the major central bank announcement of the week. This time, it’s the turn of the European Central Bank. Markets will be watching the ECB’s next moves with additional scrutiny as it committed to a strategic refresh earlier last month.

We’ve seen inflation rates rise in the UK and US recently. While Eurozone inflation dipped away from a two-year high a couple of weeks ago, inflation and its effects have been brought to the fore of EU monetary policymakers’ thinking.

Following an 18-month strategic review, the EU has shifted its inflation target to 2%. According to observers, that would give the bloc enough wiggle room to a) accept temporary inflation rates above that and b) keep interest rates near or at historic lows.

Could this feed into a change in pandemic monetary policy? It’s possible, but the fact there is space for ECB policymakers to keep rates low suggests there’ll be no major change from the bloc’s current monetary trajectory.

At June’s meeting, the European Central Bank reiterated its commitment to €1.85 trillion in asset purchases under its PEPP mechanism. This was said to remain in place until March 2022.

Turning to data, one of the week’s key releases is UK retail sales for June and the month-to-month comparisons.

We can gauge June’s figures by looking at the recently-released Q2 2021 retail numbers reported by the British Retail Consortium alongside KPMG.

According to BRC, retail sales jumped 10.4% between April-June when weighted against the same period in 2019. This was the fastest quarterly growth reported since records began back in 1995.

The report also comes with an initial British retail health check for June too. KPMG reports that, against 2019’s levels, retail sales in June shot up 13.1%.

For context, BRC and KMPG are weighing retail sales against 2019’s numbers, as 2020’s numbers have been distorted by the Covid-19 pandemic.

A combination of lockdown easing, warmer summer temperatures, and Euro 2020 contributed to the rise in retail spending. Additionally, many UK holidaymakers have had no choice but to stay at home, thus keeping money that would be spent overseas in the local economy.

All of this is down to pent up demand being unleashed as lockdown restrictions lift. From Monday, nearly all of the major restrictions on British life are being removed, so the battle for wallets is now on.

What will be interesting to see is any change in habits from retail spending to experiences. This was the trend in the US for the past couple of months, so UK may shoppers may also move towards doing things rather than buying things.

We also have a wealth of PMI reports coming in from the US, UK, and the EU on Friday.

For the UK, both services and manufacturing IHS Markit PMIs showed the UK is still very much on a growth footing.

Starting with manufacturing, June’s reading came in at 63.9, a touch lower than May’s all-time high of 65.6, but still one of the highest rates in the survey’s 30-year history. However, industry insiders warned supply chain snarls and high input costs meeting surging demand could cause a slowdown in factory output going forward.

June’s services PMI reading was in line with UK manufacturing: a slight dip away from May’s high, but still showing strong growth. The actual reading came in at 62.4. However, rising operational expenses and staff shortages could impact growth in the short term, as could rising inflation. We’ll get a clearer picture with July’s reading.

The EU will be hoping to keep the momentum rolling into July too. June’s readings were some of the most positive for years. June’s composite flash index was 59.2 – an increase over the 57.1 registered in May. Services bounced from 55.2 to 58.0, suggesting pent up demand is driving the hospitality and services sector forward.

The US, while thriving, could have reached its peak, according to PMI releases. Its composite score for June was 63.7 – the second-fastest rate of expansion on record.

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit, said: “June saw another month of impressive output growth across the manufacturing and services sectors of the US economy, rounding off the strongest quarterly expansion since data were first available in 2009.”

“The rate of growth cooled compared to May’s record high, however, adding to signs that the economy’s recovery bounce peaked in the second quarter.”

Inflation will no doubt play a big role in July’s PMI calculations. Core and non-core prices are up in the economies mentioned above, but Friday’s release will give us a better understanding of its impact on US economic activity.

We also transition into the second week of US Q2 earning season. A mixture of tech and FMCG firms are reporting this week, including the likes of Netflix, Twitter, Intel, Johnson & Johnson, and Coca-Cola.

Oilfield services and engineering firm Schlumberger may be one to watch. Oil prices have gone from strength to strength this the tail end of last year. Has this fed into increased activity for multinationals like Schlumberger and consequently better financial results?

You can find a run down of the large caps reporting on Wall Street this week below, but you can also see our full US earnings calendar here.

Major economic data

Key earnings data