Trump Media Stock Surges Following Sudden Shift in Election Odds

Shares of Trump Media and Technology Group, the parent company of Truth Social, have jumped over the past week as betting markets started tilting toward former President Donald Trump.

On Friday, the stock surged 4.8% to close at $25.28, up 53% from last Friday’s closing price.

Trump’s odds of victory on top betting sites

This shift coincided with a notable improvement in Trump’s chances of winning, as reflected on major betting platforms. For instance, Vice President Kamala Harris held a lead on PredictIt last weekend but was tied by Wednesday and was surpassed by Trump the next day.

Similarly, Harris had a slight advantage on Polymarket on October 4 but lost ground over the weekend, with Trump steadily increasing his lead throughout the week. Currently, Trump stands at 55% compared to Harris’s 44.7%.

On Kalshi, the race was close between Harris and Trump, but by mid-week, Trump began to pull ahead, now leading 53% to 47%.

Meanwhile, Thomas Miller, a prominent data scientist and professor at Northwestern University, told Fortune’s Shawn Tully on Thursday that Trump's odds have surged over the past week, providing him with a two-vote lead in the Electoral College.

Miller argues that his model, which relies on political betting data, is a more accurate predictor than individual polls.

Although nationwide opinion polls have not shown a significant shift, with Harris maintaining a narrow lead, surveys in critical swing states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania indicate that her advantage is diminishing. Trump has managed to maintain leads in other battleground states, including Georgia and North Carolina.

Trump Media shares performance this year

Trump Media stock has experienced significant volatility this year, serving as a barometer for Trump's election prospects. The stock surged after Trump's first debate with President Joe Biden in June and again following an assassination attempt in July.

Trump Media shares have seen considerable volatility in 2024, acting as a barometer for Trump's election prospects. The stock surged after Trump's first debate with President Joe Biden in June and again following an assassination attempt in July. However, the shares declined after Biden stepped aside and Kamala Harris entered the presidential race. The stock faced additional pressure as the end of the lockup period approached, allowing insiders to sell their shares. Since hitting a low on September 23, Trump Media has rebounded dramatically, rising 115%. Trump holds approximately 59% of the outstanding shares, valued at nearly $3 billion.

However, after Biden withdrew from the race and Harris entered, Trump Media's stock took a downturn. The shares declined further last month as the end of the lockup period neared, permitting company insiders to sell their holdings.

Last month, Trump announced that he would not sell his stock, alleviating concerns that he might liquidate his holdings to cover legal or campaign expenses. Since reaching a low on September 23, Trump Media shares have soared by 115%.

Trump holds approximately 59% of the outstanding shares, bringing the value of his stake to nearly $3 billion.

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Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice.