Moderna shares soared over 13% on Tuesday and extended their gains into Wednesday following an "outperform" rating from the investment bank Oppenheimer, which suggested the Covid vaccine producer could introduce five new products to the market by 2026.
Despite a challenging 2023, marked by a substantial decline in demand for Covid-related products, Moderna's stock saw a significant boost with Oppenheimer's upgrade. The pharmaceutical company, heavily reliant on its Covid shot, witnessed a nearly 45% drop in its share price last year.
Moderna rivals such have also suffered from similar factors. The Pfizer share price fell by over 40% over the past year, while BioNTech stock shed over 24.5% of its value and AstraZeneca shares declined by over 7%. Pfizer stock took its latest hit in December, when the New York-based pharma company projected 2024 revenue and profit below Wall Street's expectations due to lower Covid-related revenues.
Oppenheimer analyst Hartaj Singh acknowledged the potential for a dip in Covid sales for Moderna in 2024 due to factors like vaccine fatigue. However, the firm anticipates a resurgence in Covid vaccine sales in 2025 and beyond, fueled by increased awareness and education about the disease.
Singh expressed optimism about Moderna's pipeline, pointing to potential product launches in the next 12 to 18 months that could drive sales in 2025. This includes the potential approval of Moderna's experimental vaccine targeting respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in older adults. A decision from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is expected in April.
Singh also highlighted the possibility of FDA approval for Moderna's experimental flu vaccine in 2024 or 2025. Recent trial results indicated a stronger immune response against four flu virus strains compared to currently available vaccines.
The analyst suggested that Moderna also might seek FDA approval for its experimental personalized cancer vaccine in 2024 or 2025. The company could utilize the FDA's accelerated approval pathway, expediting the process for drugs addressing serious conditions with an unmet medical need, based on specific clinical trial metrics.
Moderna and its partner, pharma multinational Merck, are currently conducting studies on the cancer vaccine in conjunction with Merck's Keytruda therapy, targeting patients with melanoma and other cancers.
On Tuesday, Moderna reiterated its anticipation of sales growth in 2025, as outlined in a shareholder letter. The company emphasized the potential approval of its RSV vaccine and a combination shot targeting both Covid and the flu, with the latter possibly receiving approval "as early as 2025."
In its third-quarter earnings release last November, Moderna projected a decline in revenue to $4 billion in 2024 before expecting growth in 2025. The company aims to achieve a "break even" point in 2026. November's announcement also indicated that Moderna was likely to reach the lower end of its sales forecast range of $6 billion to $8 billion for 2023, reflecting diminished demand for Covid vaccines.
Moderna has also expressed its intention to introduce up to 15 products in the next five years — a goal initially outlined during its annual research and development day in September.
According to 16 analysts surveyed by TipRanks that offered 12-month Moderna share price targets, the consensus forecast for MRNA stock stands at $134.07 — a potential 23.15% upside from its current price as of January 3, 2024.
The highest listed Moderna stock price forecast on the platform is $310.00, while the lowest stands at $60. Of the 16 analysts surveyed, 8 offered a Buy rating on Moderna stock, while 6 had it as a Hold, and 2 gave it a Sell.
At the time of writing on Wednesday, Moderna shares, which trade on the Nasdaq stock market under the ticker MRNA, were close to 3.60% down on the day at $108.41, after having closed up over 13% on Tuesday at $112.50.
The MRNA share price was close to 38% down since January 3, 2023.
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