Bitcoin price forecast for November based on historical BTC performance

Bitcoin price (BTC) kicked off November by surpassing the key $70,000 psychological resistance level, maintaining this position for several days. As the new month begins, Finbold has analyzed Bitcoin’s historical returns to offer a price projection for BTC by November 30.

Looking back, Bitcoin closed October with a 10.76% gain, nearly half of its average and median returns for "Uptober." According to data from Coinglass, November typically sees even higher average returns, although its median gains tend to be lower than October's.

Historically, Bitcoin has posted an average gain of 42.78% in November since 2013. With seven positive years out of eleven, the median return for November stands at 7.12%, based on the difference between the opening and closing prices of the month.

In particular, November’s best year was 2013 with staggering 449.35% gains from day one to 30, followed by 2017 and 2020, with 53.48% and 42.95%, respectively. Meanwhile, 2018’s bear market resulted in -36.57% returns in November for Bitcoin, being its worst year followers by 2019.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction for November 30

As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $69,495, slightly below its opening price of $70,272 for November. The leading cryptocurrency has shown resilience after breaking out of both high- and low-timeframe downtrends, successfully retesting the lower time frame (LTF) support.

Given its current momentum and based on historical returns, Bitcoin is projected to trade between $75,275 and $100,334 by the end of November. This prediction uses the median and average historical returns from previous Novembers, assuming BTC maintains its upward trajectory throughout the month.

While this analysis provides useful insights, it should not be viewed in isolation. Bitcoin's historical returns can offer valuable context for what traders and investors might expect as the price action unfolds throughout the month.

Interestingly, Finbold shared two related analyses earlier this Saturday, November 2, discussing Bitcoin's $100,000 price target. The first analysis, from the AI model ChatGPT, predicts that BTC could reach this milestone by mid-to-late 2025. A second analysis by Alan Santana presents a similar outlook, though he cautions that the current rally may be a potential bull trap.

That being said, predicting Bitcoin's price with any degree of certainty is inherently difficult, given the extreme volatility and uncertainty of the market. Investors should approach with caution, fully understanding what they are investing in and considering a range of factors before making any financial decisions.

Bitcoin price volatility expected ahead of US elections

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price experienced a sharp 8% correction between October 29 and November 3, briefly dropping to $67,446 over the weekend. Despite this pullback, the higher time frame (HTF) market structure remains bullish, and the market is bracing for volatility as the U.S. presidential election results are anticipated on November 5.

Bitcoin’s current uptrend began from the lows of $52,510 on September 6. Since then, each correction within its higher high (HH) and higher low (HL) structure has consistently retraced to the Fibonacci "golden zone" between the 0.5 and 0.618 levels.

As shown in the chart, Bitcoin has displayed similar behavior, closing above the 0.618 level over the weekend. A daily close above $68,500 within the next 48 hours would confirm the completion of the lower time frame (LTF) bullish structure, allowing BTC to quickly recover and move back above the key $70,000 psychological level.

When considering shares, indices, forex (foreign exchange) and commodities for trading and price predictions, remember that trading CFDs involves a significant degree of risk and could result in capital loss.

Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice. Trading cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets is restricted for all UK retail clients.