How does inflation affect stocks: higher inflation, more pain for stocks

How does inflation affect stocks, inflation, the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services rises, can have significant implications for the stock market.

Financial markets news: the financial markets have been experiencing significant volatility, driven by various economic data releases. With mixed signals coming from different reports, navigating the market has become increasingly complex. Key reports, such as the JOLTS and ISM Services data, have triggered notable market movements, giving investors much to consider as they assess the economic landscape.

JOLTS and ISM Services Data

JOLTS Report Insights
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report revealed better-than-expected results, indicating a robust labor market. This data is critical as it provides insights into job openings, hires, quits, and layoffs, helping analysts gauge labor market dynamics.

ISM Services Index Highlights
The ISM Services Index also reported strong performance, with the Prices Paid Index making headlines. It surged to 64.4, significantly above the expected 57.5 and last month’s reading of 58.2. This marks the highest level since February 2023, suggesting potential inflationary pressures ahead.

Implications for CPI

The increase in the Prices Paid Index could foreshadow another elevated Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading. Analysts are keenly awaiting next week’s CPI data, with swaps predicting a 0.4% month-over-month increase for December. This figure will be crucial for understanding the inflation trajectory.

Bond Market Reactions

Rising Yields
The bond market reacted negatively to the economic data, with 10-year Treasury yields rising to 4.69%, an increase of six basis points in a single day. This rise in yields points to heightened concerns about inflation and its impact on monetary policy.

Treasury Auctions
The day's events included a 10-year Treasury auction, which, while not stellar, passed with a reasonable grade. Looking ahead, a 30-year Treasury auction is scheduled, which will be closely watched for further indications of market sentiment.

Upcoming Economic Data

ADP and Jobless Claims
Today’s economic calendar includes the ADP employment report at 8:15 AM, followed by initial and continuing jobless claims. The market has been particularly focused on jobless claims, noting a significant drop in continuing claims. Initial claims are expected to come in at 215,000, with continuing claims at 1.86 million.

FOMC Minutes
At 2 PM, the release of the FOMC minutes will further influence market dynamics, especially in relation to the upcoming auction. Investors will be looking for insights into the Federal Reserve's thinking on interest rates and inflation.

Fed Rate Cut Expectations

Market Pricing Adjustments
Following the recent JOLTS and ISM data, markets have adjusted their expectations for the next Federal Reserve rate cut, now anticipated for July 2025, a shift from previous expectations of June. There's also about a 50% chance of a second cut by December, although these odds have been fluctuating, reflecting market uncertainty.

Yield Trends
The 10-year yield has broken above 4.62%, with resistance levels now at 4.75%. The 30-year yield closed at 4.92%, surpassing the 4.82% resistance level, indicating a broader trend of rising yields across the board.

Global Yield Movements

International Perspectives
Globally, yields are also on the rise. The UK’s 30-year gilt reached 5.25%, the highest since 1998. Japan's yields also saw significant increases, with the 10-year closing at 1.13% and the 30-year at 2.31%, levels not observed in years. The only outlier in this trend appears to be China, where yields are declining.

Inflation Expectations
Five-Year Inflation Swaps
Five-year inflation swaps, which recently formed a bull flag pattern, broke out to the upside, rising four basis points to 2.49%. If healthy economic data continues, a move towards 2.60% seems plausible, with Friday’s wage data likely playing a crucial role in shaping these expectations.

Equity Market Reactions

Stock Market Performance
With the backdrop of rising rates and inflation expectations, equities struggled. The S&P 500 fell over 1%, while the Nasdaq dropped 1.8%. The S&P briefly reclaimed its 10-day exponential moving average but fell below it, along with the 50-day simple moving average.

Options Market Dynamics
A key question for investors is whether the options market will permit further declines in the S&P 500. The most substantial concentration of put gamma is at 5,900, acting as a support level. A break below 5,875 could signal a more bearish shift, potentially leading to lower levels.

The Impact of Nvidia

Nvidia's Market Influence
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) played a significant role in yesterday's market decline, contributing 40% of the total downturn. The stock fell over 6%, reflecting its substantial influence on broader market movements. Among the Bloomberg 500, only 197 stocks advanced while 301 declined, indicating negative breadth in the market.

Market Breadth Without Nvidia
Without Nvidia's performance, the S&P 500's decline would have been limited to only 33 basis points, highlighting the stock's outsized impact. The bearish engulfing candle formed by Nvidia’s decline further underscores the stock's importance as a market driver.

Conclusion

The current market atmosphere is heavily influenced by economic data, interest rates, and inflation expectations. With significant movements in yields and the equity markets reacting negatively to rising rates, investors must remain vigilant. Future economic data releases will be pivotal in shaping market sentiment and determining the trajectory of both interest rates and stock prices. As inflationary pressures loom, understanding these dynamics will be essential for navigating the evolving financial landscape.

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Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice.