Live Chat

Europe ahead of the key US

Markets Mixed

Stocks firmed up a bit more in Europe ahead of the key US nonfarm payrolls report later. It follows a positive session driven by a decline in bond yields and the US dollar, whilst oil prices are heading for a sharp weekly reversal. US markets were basically flat, closing a tad lower in the wake of weekly jobless claims that didn’t move the needle for investors. Oil continues the aggressive reversal taking out another Fib level and the 50-day SMA on the way down, whilst gold continues to stabilise around the $1,820 level with the US 10yr Treasury hovering around the 4.75% area still.

Jobs Data is Key

We had the Jolts job openings number sparking a rout in bonds that pushed the US 10yr to a new 16-year this week, whilst the 30yr rose above 5% for the first time since the GFC. Meanwhile the UK 30yr gilt yield hit its highest since 1998. Following these sharp moves things have been a fair bit calmer as the ADP private payrolls came in soft, but the path of least of resistance is ultimately higher.

Crash Landing?

Barclays says it will take a significant stock market crash to see the bond market rally as the Fed will remain a seller and Japanese investors are pulled towards domestic bonds.

“There is no magic level of yields that, when reached, will automatically draw in enough buyers to spark a sustained bond rally,”

Ajay Rajadhyaksha wrote in a note with other analysts.

“In the short term, we can think of one scenario where bonds rally materially. If risk assets fall sharply in the coming weeks.”

Jobs Day

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 187,000 in August, while the counts for June and July were revised down. The unemployment rate was 3.8%, the highest since February 2022 as new workers arrived and failed to be absorbed. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month-on-month, and +4.3% from a year ago, slightly below forecasts.


Awaiting Data

Today the consensus is for payrolls to rise by 170K in September vs. 187K in August. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.7% while average hourly earnings are set to remain steady at 4.3% year-on-year. But this masks a very wide range of estimates - Headline number for nonfarm payrolls ranges from 90K to 256K; unemployment rate 3.4% to 3.9%, average earnings m/m 0.1% to 0.4%.

最新新聞

星期五, 22 十一月 2024

Indices

黃金價格走勢强勁突破2,688美元,地緣政治風險與科技股反彈推動市場波動

星期五, 22 十一月 2024

Indices

原油價格走勢強勁,OPEC+增產推遲與烏俄衝突推升市場風險

星期五, 22 十一月 2024

Indices

美股指數期貨下跌,字母控股公司虧損施壓科技股,利率疑慮持續影響市場

星期五, 22 十一月 2024

Indices

11月22日財經:美股三大指數表現不一,比特幣價格飆升至99000美元

Live Chat