星期一 Jul 1 2024 12:49
5 最小
The euro surged on Monday following a notable victory by the French far-right in the first round of parliamentary elections — though the result slightly fell short of some projections.
This leaves the final French election result dependent on party negotiations ahead of the second round next weekend.
Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) party secured a significant lead in the initial round on Sunday, according to exit polls cited by Reuters. However, analysts observed that the party's share of the vote was less than some projections, leading to a boost in stocks and bonds.
The euro rose 0.43% against the U.S. dollar to $1.0762, marking a two-week high.
It had previously declined by about 1.2% since the French far-right's victory in the European parliamentary elections in early June, which led President Emmanuel Macron to call a snap election.
如果您今天進行了交易，請計算您的假設損益（總成本和費用）.
市場
金融工具
帳戶類型
方向
數量
金額必須等於或高於
金額必須小於
金額應為最小手數增量的倍數
USD
EUR
GBP
CAD
AUD
CHF
ZAR
MXN
JPY
值
佣金
點差
槓桿
手續費
所需保證金
隔夜利息
過去的表現並不是未來結果的可靠指標。
所有與你帳戶貨幣不相同貨幣計價的金融商品的倉位，在平倉時將被收取轉換費用。
Markets.com Chief Market Analyst Neil Wilson shared his thoughts on the French election's first-round results in a note on Monday, noting the likelihood of a hung parliament and the precariousness of the French fiscal position:
“French stocks surging, euro gapping up, spreads narrowing again — a relief rally of sorts for assets exposed to French politics, but the centre of gravity has shifted and the Rassemblement National (National Rally) could secure a majority still. [...]
There will be an unusually high number of three-way run-offs due in part to the very big turnout. It is unclear how the Leftists and Centrists will work together to form a “Republican Front” to defeat RN. A hung parliament looks very possible. This could reduce the chance of a big spending splurge, but wouldn’t exactly help sort France’s fiscal position, which is already quite fragile”.
France’s benchmark CAC 40 index surged 2.4% in early trade on Monday — its best one-day rise in close to two years. It later pared its gains but was still up over 1.6% on the day as of 12:30 GMT.
Investors are now concerned that the RN might gain power through a "cohabitation" with incumbent president Emmanuel Macron, potentially advancing a high-spending and euro-sceptic agenda.
"First round results are not offering much certainty about the composition of the parliament, and the second round scheduled for next weekend is the big risk event," said Francesco Pesole, currency strategist at ING.
He added that the left-wing coalition's lower-than-expected vote share was also likely supporting the euro:
“It appears that EUR/USD is getting rid of some political risk premium this morning after preliminary results from the first round of French parliamentary elections came in close to pre-vote polls. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally is projected at 34%, followed by the leftist New Popular Front at 29% and President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance at 22%. The positive reaction in the euro is, in our view, primarily due to some market relief for the New Popular Front not gaining more than expected”.
The euro's rise pushed the dollar slightly lower against a basket of currencies. The greenback was already weakened after data on Friday showed U.S. inflation cooled in May, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this year.
The dollar index (DXY) was down 0.14% at 105.57, a one-week low. Against the dollar, sterling increased by 0.27% to $1.268, while the Australian dollar rose 0.1% to $0.6677.
Market predictions now indicate a 63% chance of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, up from a 55% chance a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
When considering shares, indices, forex (foreign exchange) and commodities for trading and price predictions, remember that trading CFDs involves a significant degree of risk and could result in capital loss.
Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice.
標籤
查看全部最新
查看全部
星期四, 21 十一月 2024
3 最小
星期四, 21 十一月 2024
3 最小
星期三, 20 十一月 2024
2 最小
ZH
