Trump's Campaign Promises in Peril: Tariffs and Ukraine Conflict at a Standstill

Trump's Campaign Promises Face Headwinds: Tariffs and Ukraine in the Crosshairs

Two of former US President Donald Trump's most prominent campaign promises – using tariffs to reshape the American economy and ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict – appear to be encountering harsh realities and grinding to a halt. The deadline set by Trump for a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has passed without any prospect of talks. Meanwhile, a US appeals court has ruled that much of Trump's tariff regime is illegal. With Trump's push to deport undocumented immigrants also facing court setbacks, his path to delivering on his high-profile promises made during his first year in office looks precarious, especially as the midterm elections approach.

Legal Challenges Threaten Trump's Policies

"I have the right to do whatever I want," Trump said recently. But just days later, a judge's ruling threatened one of the main pillars of his economic policies. For Trump, the stakes are high now as he begins to position himself for the midterm elections. Trump has been unambiguous about the consequences of failure, even suggesting that losing his grip on tariffs would be a "complete disaster" for the United States.

Tariff Ruling Sparks Controversy

An appeals court ruled that Trump had wrongly invoked a rarely used emergency law as the basis for his global tariffs, but it kept the tariffs in place during the case review. However, this ruling casts a shadow of doubt and uncertainty on US international trade, especially after tariff rates seemed to be stabilizing for most trading partners in August. If this ruling is ultimately upheld, Trump would not only lose his vision for a new American economy but also the funding rationale for his only legislative achievement – a $3.4 trillion "big and beautiful" bill, which cut taxes and federal spending. As a candidate, Trump promised that his tariffs would also be part of his "Make America Great Again" revolution, leading to a resurgence of domestic manufacturing.

The Ukraine Conflict Stalls

During his 2024 campaign, Trump repeatedly pledged to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict "on day one," citing his legendary negotiating skills and his friendly relationship with Putin. In his eight months in office, Trump rebuked Zelenskyy and tried to persuade Putin to reach an agreement to end the conflict, even giving Putin the red carpet treatment and holding a summit in Alaska. Putin gave Trump the impression that he would hold direct talks with Zelenskyy to negotiate a land swap that could end the conflict, but Zelenskyy remained opposed to ceding more territory, and Russian officials said shortly after the summit that no talks were imminent. Trump occasionally expressed disappointment with the Russian leader, setting a two-week deadline for Putin to agree to talks, which expired on Monday. Signaling the continued escalation of tensions, Russia recently launched one of the most intense missile and drone attacks this year, killing at least four children in a Ukrainian apartment building. European leaders have expressed growing frustration with Trump's efforts to resolve the conflict, suggesting that Putin "played President Trump."

Immigration and Crime... More Contentious Issues

Some of Trump's priorities are also facing sharp disagreements, with courts adding more judicial resistance to his deportation operations. A judge blocked the government from using so-called "expedited removal" for undocumented immigrants who have lived in the United States for some time. Another judge prevented the deportation of Guatemalan children without due process. Other cases are still under consideration. The ongoing legal and political challenges facing Trump's policies, coupled with complex geopolitical tensions, make it difficult to predict the course of events in the near future. Investors and stakeholders should monitor ongoing developments and adapt to any changes that may occur. **Note:** This analysis provides an overview of the current situation and does not constitute investment advice. Financial experts should be consulted before making any investment decisions.