Morning Note: UK GDP Data, NVDA Stock Dip, & CAD Weakness Amid Oil Decline

Investors Eye U.K GDP Data

The UK's month-on-month GDP growth for December was recorded at 0.4%, while the forecast for January stands at a modest 0.1%. This data is scheduled for release on March 14 at 07:00 GMT. The expected slowdown in GDP growth can be attributed to several factors. January typically experiences weaker economic activity following the holiday-driven boost in December, as consumer spending declines post-festive season. Additionally, adverse weather conditions may have disrupted business operations and retail activity.

(GBP/USD Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, the GBP/USD currency pair has been transitioning from a bearish to a bullish trend since mid-January 2025, as evidenced by higher highs and higher lows within an ascending channel. Recently, bullish momentum has sustained its upward movement, potentially leading to a retest of the resistance zone at 1.0340–1.0370. If the pair breaks above this resistance zone, it could have the potential for further upward movement.

NVDA Slides from Peak: Is This a Smart Entry Point?

Over the last two years, NVDA has produced an outstanding gain of more than 405%. But the stock has recently experienced a decline, falling over 24% from its 52-week peak. Nvidia's fundamentals are still solid, but several factors have made investors less optimistic. Concerns about a potential slowdown in AI infrastructure spending, short-term margin pressures, export restrictions to China, and broader macroeconomic uncertainties such as tariffs have all contributed to its recent decline.

NVDA's long-term appeal is unaffected by this setback. With demand for its chips far exceeding supply, the company is still at the forefront of the AI revolution. Thanks to the rapid scaling of its next-generation Blackwell architecture, Nvidia is positioned for another period of strong growth.

(NVDA Shares Price Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, NVDA's share price has been in a bearish trend since mid-January, as indicated by the formation of lower highs and lower lows. Currently, the price is retesting the swap zone at 113 – 116. If it can break above this zone, it could potentially retest the resistance zone at 128 – 131. Conversely, if it fails to close above this level, the bearish momentum may continue, pushing the price downward to retest the support zone at 92 – 96.

Canadian Dollar Slips as Oil Drops and Trade Tensions Rise

The Canadian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, driven by falling oil prices and escalating trade tensions between the United States and its trading partners, including Canada. Investor sentiment soured after the latest round of tariffs, introduced by U.S. President Donald Trump, took effect on Wednesday, raising duties on all U.S. steel and aluminium imports. In response, Canada plans to impose reciprocal tariffs starting April 2. With nearly 75% of Canada’s exports, particularly oil, heading to the United States, concerns over trade disruptions added further pressure on the currency.

(USD/CAD Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, the overall trend of the USD/CAD currency pair has been bullish since the beginning of October 2024, as indicated by the formation of higher highs and higher lows. However, strong bearish momentum pushed the price downward at the start of February 2025, and the candlestick pattern has begun to shift to a bearish structure, as evidenced by the lower high pattern formed in March 2025.

Recently, it managed to close above the swap zone of 1.4300 – 1.4340 at the end of last week and is now nearing the resistance zone of 1.4480 – 1.4520. If it fails to break above this resistance zone in the near term, this indicates that bearish momentum persists, potentially pushing the rate downward.

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Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice.