Equities feel the hangover
Equity markets look a tad bleary-eyed and hungover this morning after a bit of binge. Call it exuberance, but the strong rally in China stoked by the state-run press left markets with only way to travel on Monday and now the price has to be paid. Meanwhile we continue to monitor the rising cases in the US and an emerging spat between the UK and China over Hong Kong and Huawei which simply evinces the fact that Covid is reshaping the world.
European stocks handed back some of Monday’s gains on the open on Tuesday after the strong start to the trading week pushed the FTSE 100 back above 6200. Energy and financials led the fall but all Stoxx 600 sectors dropped in the first hour of trade. Tokyo and Hong Kong fell, but shares in China continued to rally on very high volumes.
Nasdaq hits fresh record high, but is a correction incoming for Wall Street?
Wall Street also rallied after the bump up in China, with the Nasdaq hitting a fresh all-time high, but yesterday had a feel of a frothy move based on nothing but fumes. The put/call ratio for the S&P 500, which reflects market positioning and sentiment, has fallen to levels that have in the past indicated a correction is in the offing. Speculators have also lately aggressively cut their net long positioning on S&P 500 futures.
The upcoming earnings season will be crucial, and investors may see earnings estimates reduced given that many companies simply scrapped guidance, which could call for a rethink of valuations. Indices continue to track the ranges of June, so until we break out in either direction the pattern is one of a choppy but sideways market as investors try to figure out the balance on offer between reopening & stimulus vs cases & permanent economic damage from falling confidence and increased saving.
Recovery is happening, but is it fast enough: German industrial production rose 7.8% in May, but the figure was short of the 11% that was expected. Meanwhile, BMW Q2 sales in China rose from the same period a year ago, which might be down to the pent-up demand from the shutdown in the country in Q1, but nevertheless indicates a decent pace of recovery in the world’s second largest economy.
The UK’s Halifax mortgage survey showed prices fell for a fourth month in a row in June, but activity levels are rebounding, with enquiries up 100% from May. It’s too early to tell if this rebound can be sustained – a truism across the economic data prints we see right now.
Fed’s Bostic cautious over US recovery
Meanwhile we got another dose of salt from Raphael Bostic, the Atlanta Fed president, who warned of signs the US recovery is levelling off. Indeed, the headline nonfarm payrolls number last Thursday masks a lot of ills. Not least of which, permanent job losses are on the rise: while the number of unemployed classed as being on temporary layoff decreased by 4.8m in June to 10.6m, following a decline of 2.7m in May, the number of permanent job losers continued to rise, increasing by 588,000 to 2.9m in June.
Additionally, the data for the June report was collected largely before the spike in cases in several of the big economically important states like Texas and California. Dr Fauci said the US is still ‘knee-deep’ in the first wave.
RBA holds rates, notes increased uncertainty on rising Covid-19 cases
The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates on hold at the record low 0.25%, but noted households and businesses are worried about the state of the economy after the jump in cases in Victoria raised doubts about the country’s handling of the outbreak, which had been assumed to be as good as New Zealand.
“The downturn has been less severe than earlier expected,” RBA governor Philip Lowe said in a statement, but added that “uncertainty about the health situation and the future strength of the economy is making many households and businesses cautious, and this is affecting consumption and investment plans”. Scott Morrison’s government will deliver a statement on July 23rd outlining further support on the fiscal side.
Gold still bullish, EUR and GBP drift lower
Elsewhere, gold’s bullish bias remains intact as it consolidates around $1780 and may be preparing for a fresh run towards $1800 – first up it needs to clear the seven-year highs at $1789. WTI (Aug) is steady at $40 for now and in FX we see the majors still trading within recent ranges as the dollar recovers a little from Monday’s risk-on sell-off.
EURUSD failed to break the June swing high at 1.1345 yesterday and has pulled back towards the middle of the bullish pennant. GBPUSD has also drifted lower after several failed attempts in the last session to clear the 1.2520 resistance, finding some immediate support on the 200-period SMA on the 4-hr chart. Sterling has that RoRo feel.
Volgende week: Groeiende druk op de RBA om negatief te gaan, hoge verwachtingen voor de Amerikaanse ISM
Aankomende week – kan de detailhandel in de Eurozone Duitsland volgen, dat de voorspellingen verbrijzelde; zal de Amerikaanse ISM Non-Manufacturing Index tegen de verwachtingen in weer gaan stijgen, en neemt de druk toe op de RBA om over te gaan tot negatieve rente?
Lees verder voor een volledig overzicht van alle belangrijke gebeurtenissen om deze week in de gaten moet houden.
Vertrouwen in de Eurozone en detailhandelsverkoop
Het beleggersvertrouwen in de Eurozone verbeterde afgelopen maand, hoewel de Sentix index de verwachtingen niet waarmaakte met een stijging van -41,8 naar -24,8, terwijl een herstel naar -22,5 was voorspeld.
Dat was nog steeds een stevig herstel, nadat de index in mei nauwelijks in beweging was gekomen, en deelnemers een veel positiever vooruitzicht dan eerder rapporteerden. Sindsdien kwam er veel positieve data op het gebied van PMI’s en de Duitse detailhandelsverkoop die de voorspellingen verpletterde en in mei groeide met 13,9%, tegen een verwachting van 3,9%, wat het vertrouwen nog kan versterken als cijfers van maandag gepubliceerd worden.
De cijfers over de detailhandelsverkoop in de Eurozone worden maandag ook verwacht. Er wordt een groei voorspeld van 7,8%, na de -11,7% daling in mei.
Verrassende groei in zicht voor de Amerikaanse ISM Non-Manufacturing Index?
Vorige week verraste de Amerikaanse ISM Manufacturing Index met een onverwachte terugkeer naar groei. Economen verwachtten een herstel van de index naar 49,5 en durfden de onbeweeglijke grens van 50 niet aan, maar de index sprong naar 52,6 en de meeste sectoren rapporteerden groei, vooral op het gebied van werkgelegenheid, productie en nieuwe orders.
De Non-Manufacturing index zal deze week naar verwachting stijgen van 45,4 naar 49, maar gezien de kracht die we zagen in de Manufacturing-tegenhanger, is er op de markten hoop dat ook hier de 50 overschreden wordt en dat er een snel herstel van de Amerikaanse economie volgt.
Markten zetten in op een rentedaling bij de Reserve Bank of Australia
De Reserve Bank of Australia hield de rente op 0,25% tijdens de laatste beleidsbijeenkomst. De 30-daagse ASX Interbancaire Cash Rentefutures laten zien dat de markt rekening houdt met 60% kans op een renteverlaging door de RBA naar 0% tijdens de volgende bestuursvergadering. Dat zou in feite betekenen dat de rente negatief wordt, een stap die beleidsmakers doet aarzelen.
De druk groeit echter, nadat lokale oplevingen van infecties met het coronavirus de regering hadden gedwongen in delen van Melbourne een lockdown af te kondigen. Een verder verspreiding van infecties kan het Australische economische herstel belemmeren, wat de RBA dwingt tot meer stimuleringsmaatregelen.
Bedrijfswinsten: Paychex, Walgreens Boots Alliance
Paychex verwacht inkomsten van $0,61 per aandeel te kunnen rapporteren voor het kwartaal dat eind mei 2020 eindigde, -3,1% ten opzichte van dezelfde periode vorig jaar. De inkomsten zullen naar verwachting -7% lager zijn vergeleken met het vierde kwartaal van het vorige fiscale jaar dat werd afgesloten met $911 miljoen. Het aandeel bewoog gedurende het jaar grotendeels mee met de S&P 500, hoewel Paychex sinds de sell-off in maart moeite heeft verliezen snel terug te verdienen, waardoor het dit jaar uitkomt op -10%, vergeleken met -4% voor de S&P 500.
Het aandeel Walgreens Boots Alliance steeg 11% ten opzichte van het dieptepunt dit jaar, maar staat nog steeds 30% lager dan op 1 januari. Volgens onderzoek van Thompson Reuters geven 21 analisten gemiddeld een hold-advies – het volledige rapport is te downloaden via het menu-item Statistieken in het platform. De inkomsten voor het derde kwartaal worden verwacht voordat de markten openen op 9 juli.
Wekelijkse uitkeringsaanvragen in de VS
Het wekelijkse aantal uitkeringsaanvragen door werklozen in de VS bleef de afgelopen weken hardnekkig hoog, ondanks een aanzienlijke daling ten opzichte van het recordaantal van 6,6 miljoen dat op 5 april werd gerapporteerd. Hoewel de initiële aanvragen de voorspellingen overtroffen, ligt het aantal doorlopende aanvragen echter iets lager dan verwacht – hoewel dat met 19,5 miljoen aanvragen opvallend hoog is en laat zien hoe lang de weg nog is naar herstel van de arbeidsmarkt naar normale werkgelegenheidsniveaus.
De laatste cijfers worden donderdag verwacht.
Hoogtepunten op XRay deze week
Bekijk de volledige agenda van financiële marktanalyses en trainingen.
|07.15 UTC||Daily||European Morning Call|
|20.00 UTC||06-Jul||10 Trading Rules to Live By|
|From 15.30 UTC||07-Jul||Weekly Gold, Silver, and Oil Forecasts|
|17.00 UTC||08-Jul||Blonde Markets|
|09.00 UTC||09-Jul||How to Use the 200-day Moving Average Indicator|
Belangrijke economische agendapunten
Kijk uit naar de belangrijkste economische agendapunten deze week:
|08.30 UTC||06-Jul||Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index|
|09.00 UTC||06-Jul||Eurozone Retail Sales|
|14.00 UTC||06-Jul||US ISM Nonmanufacturing|
|14.30 UTC||06-Jul||CA BOC Business Outlook Survey|
|04.30 UTC||07-Jul||RBA Official Cash Rate Decision|
|06.00 UTC||07-Jul||German Industrial Production|
|Pre-Market||07-Jul||Paychex – Q4 2020|
|After-Market||07-Jul||Levi’s – Q2 2020|
|05.00 UTC||08-Jul||Japan Eco Watchers Survey|
|14.30 UTC||08-Jul||US EIA Crude Oil Inventories|
|08-Jul||FirstGroup – Q4 2020 (Preliminary)|
|Pre-Market||09-Jul||Walgreens Boots Alliance – Q3 2020|
|12.30 UTC||09-Jul||US Weekly Jobless Claims|
|14.30 UTC||09-Jul||US EIA Natural Gas Storage|
|12.30 UTC||10-Jul||Canada Employment Change & Unemployment Rate|
Week Ahead: RBA and BoE, Disney Earnings, US NFP
Expect policy decisions from the RBA and BoE, a host more earnings reports, the US nonmanufacturing PMI, and of course the highly anticipated/dreaded April nonfarm payrolls report. Keep track of the biggest market-moving events with the Events Calendar in the Marketsx trading platform.
Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision
Data is tentatively showing that lockdown measures in Australia might have succeeded in flattening the curve of infections, and several states have already started relaxing social distancing rules.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has previously stated that it believes the economy will begin to rebound once the outbreak was contained, therefore it seems unlikely we will be getting any further stimulus announcements as a result of this week’s meeting. It’s too early to expect the board to start tightening again, but we could see some comments regarding plans to begin tapering the quantitative easing programme.
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals is one of the leading companies in the race to find treatments and a vaccine for COVID-19. The stock is up 40% since the start of the year, and is a constituent of our Corona Blend. Analysts are expecting EPS of $5.99 per share – growth of 34.6% on the year. Revenue is forecast up 16% from the same period a year ago at $1.99 billion.
US ISM Nonmanufacturing PMI
Last month the US ISM Nonmanufacturing PMI fared much better than expected, clocking in at 52.5 versus the consensus forecast of 43.0. Companies reported a jump in supplier deliveries, with the sub–index leaping to 62.1 versus 52.4 the previous month.
Digging further into numbers, however, it’s clear to see that this helped mask wider weakness. The employment index recorded the largest drop since 2008, tumbling from 55.6 to 47.0, and the business activity index dropped almost 10 points to 48.0. New export orders and imports also collapsed.
April’s report is likely to see the headline number more accurately reflecting the weakness in the sub-indices – some forecasts suggest a drop to as low as 32.0.
Walt Disney earnings
Disney’s latest earnings report will be more of a preview than the main event. The company’s second-quarter period ends just a couple of weeks after social distancing measures and business closures were enforced. Like so much of the current data and reports, the rule is to expect bad news now, and brace for even worse to come.
Business closures and social distancing will have hit Disney from all directions, forcing closures of its parks, curtailing or delaying theatrical releases of its latest films, and hurting demand in its retail stores.
The effect has clearly been significant: the company has already announced that it would slash executive salaries.
The one positive in the report is likely to be the strong performance of the company’s streaming service, Disney+. The service enjoyed a strong launch, and demand is likely to have been bolstered even further thanks to global lockdowns.
Guidance for the next quarter won’t be able to answer all investor’s questions – such as whether parks will be able to reopen in time for the busy summer season – but will give details on how the company plans to endure these punishing conditions until the economy gets back to something that vaguely resembles normality.
PayPal stock has been one of the most resilient of those belonging to the payment processing industry. The company is likely to benefit from a surge in online shopping and demand for online services.
However, PayPal has also announced various measures to support its smaller partners, such as deferring business loan payments and waving certain fees for small business customers who are most affected by the impact of COVID-19. This will hit the company’s bottom line and revenue growth is expected to be negative for the quarter.
Bank of England interest rate decision
The Bank of England faces the same situation as the Fed and ECB – interest rates are already as low as policymakers are willing to go (for the time being, at least), so it’s unlikely we will see any change to the base rate on Thursday. We could see an increase in the size of the asset purchasing programme, however, or alterations to its short-term repo operations.
The BoE also publishes its latest Inflation Report, which will detail the expected hit to the UK economy from the coronavirus pandemic. The latest decision and report will be announced at 06.00 UTC on Thursday May 7th, instead of the usual time of 11.00 UTC.
Last month, the nonfarm payrolls report showed a drop of 701,000 jobs in March. The unemployment rate leapt past expectations to 4.4%. The market reaction was muted, however, because everyone from economists to traders knew that there was far worse to come.
Since the 21st of March, over 25 million Americans have filed jobless claims. March’s NFP may have been the worst report since 2009, but the numbers will seem trifling compared to those reported for April.
We’ve seen recently that markets are able to shrug off backward-looking data even if the readings are dire. It was the fear of numbers like these, after all, that saw stock markets posting record declines in Q1.
It is also worth noting that, since late March, the number of Americans filing for new jobless claims has fallen each week, suggesting the worst of the job losses may be behind us.
But there is a risk that the numbers will be so appalling that markets will have to rethink their already bearish forecasts.
Heads-Up on Earnings
The following companies are set to publish their quarterly earnings reports this week:
|Pre-Market||05-May||Thompson Reuters – Q1 2020|
|Pre-Market||05-May||Regeneron Pharmaceuticals – Q1 2020|
|12.00 UTC||05-May||BNP Paribas – Q1 2020|
|By 13.00 UTC||05-May||Fiat Chrysler – Q1 2020|
|After-Market||05-May||Walt Disney – Q2 2020|
|After-Market||05-May||Activision Blizzard – Q1 2020|
|After-Market||05-May||Prudential Financial – Q1 2020|
|After-Market||05-May||Occidental Petroleum – Q1 2020|
|Pre-Market (Europe)||06-May||BMW – Q1 2020|
|06-May||Credit Agricole – Q1 2020|
|06-May||Shopify – Q1 2020|
|Pre-Market||06-May||General Motors – Q1 2020|
|After-Market||06-May||PayPal – Q1 2020|
|After-Market||06-May||T-Mobile US – Q1 2020|
|After-Market||06-May||Lyft – Q1 2020|
|07-May||BT Group – Q4 2020|
|Pre-Market||07-May||Wheaton Precious Metals – Q1 2020|
|08-May||Siemens – Q2 2020|
Highlights on XRay this Week
|07.15 UTC||Daily||European Morning Call|
|09.00 UTC||Daily||Earnings Season Daily Special|
|10.00 UTC||May 6th||Live Market Analysis with Neil Wilson|
|12.20 UTC||May 8th||Platform Walkthrough|
|12.30 UTC||May 8th||US Nonfarm Payrolls Live|
Key Economic Events
Watch out for the biggest events on the economic calendar this week:
|08.15 – 09.00 UTC||04-May||Finalised Eurozone Member / Bloc Manufacturing PMIs|
|04.30 UTC||05-May||Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision|
|14.00 UTC||05-May||US ISM Nonmanufacturing PMI|
|08.15 – 09.00 UTC||06-May||Finalised Eurozone Member / Bloc Services PMIs|
|14.30 UTC||06-May||US EIA crude Oil Inventories|
|01.30 UTC||07-May||Australia Trade Balance|
|01.45 UTC||07-May||Caixin Services PMI|
|10.00 UTC||07-May||EU Economic Forecasts|
|06.00 UTC||07-May||Bank of England Interest Rate Decision|
|12.30 UTC||07-May||US Jobless Claims|
|01.30 UTC||08-May||Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Statement|
|12.30 UTC||08-May||US Nonfarm Payrolls / Unemployment Rate|
RBA expected to hold policy, but for how long?
Up until a couple of weeks ago markets were pricing in strong odds that the Reserve Bank of Australia would cut the Official Cash Rate to 0.50% from 0.75%.
All that changed after December’s labour market data was released. Unemployment dropped for a second consecutive month, hitting the lowest levels since April 2019 at 5.1%. Unemployment decreased by 13,000, largely thanks to a 29,000 increase in the number of workers employed part-time.
While still leaving the jobless rate significantly above 4.5% – a level be RBA believes will prompt an acceleration in wage growth – the unexpectedly strong report saw markets slashing odds of further easing in February.
The Australian dollar snapped a 5-day downtrend against the US dollar, spiking to test 0.6880, but the selloff quickly resumed as the focus returned to the viral outbreak in China.
Bets on easing in February drop after jobs data
According to ASX 30 day interbank cash rate futures contracts for February 2020, the probability of a cut has fallen from 56% as of January 16th to 30% by January 28th.
Westpac also noted that the strong data lowered the odds of further accommodation, with chief economist Bill Evans stating:
“Prior to the release of the surprisingly strong December Employment Report we had expected the cuts to be timed for February and June.”
“Given this strength and the significance of the labour market in the mind of the RBA, we have consequently decided to push out our forecast for two further cash rate cuts from February and June to April and August 2020.”
However, Westpac believes that the recent strength in the labour market won’t last, supporting the call for further easing. Evans explained:
“The importance of the April date is that the Board will have seen another print of the national accounts for the December quarter which is likely to highlight the soft growth environment while we expect that the surprise improvement in the unemployment rate will be unravelling.”
Consensus: cuts are still coming
The general consensus is that the RBA will have to ease further as the year progresses. While some parts of the economy are stabilising, particularly the property market (which has of course been helped by 75 basis points worth of easing during 2019), others are flagging.
Construction and consumer confidence are weak, and expectations for retail sales over the Christmas period are low. Construction output has declined for five straight quarters, while consumer confidence has erased most of the rebound recorded after hitting the lowest levels since mid-2015 in October.
There are also questions over the impact of the bushfires upon monetary policy. It is believed that, despite the economic damage estimated to be in the region of $100 billion, the bushfires will have only a short-term impact and therefore may not have any bearing on monetary policy. However, if it serves to further knock consumer confidence, it could be a contributing factor in any decision to ease policy.
The Chinese coronavirus outbreak is another large unknown; Australia trades heavily with China, so talk of factory shutdowns and a reduction in consumption could hurt the Australian economy.
What will the guidance say?
It can take 12 to 18 months for the impact of monetary policy adjustments to be fully known, so the RBA is likely to claim next month that it needs more time to assess the effects of 2019’s trifecta of cuts.
But how much time? Some analysts, like Evans at Westpac, believe the RBA will tee up a cut for April, while others think we may have to wait until the second half of the year to see further easing.