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Big tech weighs, Natwest rounds off solid quarter for UK banks
European shares once again fell and then tried to come off the flatline in early trade on Friday after another down day in the previous session, but the mood is pessimistic.
The FTSE 100 is trading above 5,500 but with little support under 5,400 we could yet see a retest of the March lows at 5,000-4,800.
Wall Street rallied as the bulls put in a solid defence with the S&P 500 recovering 3,300. Big tech earnings beat expectations yet shares fell after hours and this weighed on the futures, which are pointing to a weak open for the US market. Bear in mind also month-end flows which are helping muddy the waters.
The US dollar surged with US yields moving higher yesterday. DXY advanced to near-term resistance at the top of the October range at 94. WTI (Dec) sank amid the broad risk-off tone yesterday and demand fears were to the fore.
US jobless claims fell and GDP in the world’s largest economy rebounded a little more than expected in the third quarter, but none of this matters much since the market is entirely focused on the spread of new cases and lockdown measures.
The annualized 33.1% bounce in the third quarter masks the fact the economy is 15% smaller than it was before the pandemic hit. The pace of the recovery is slowing in the fourth quarter albeit it remains on a sure enough footing compared to Europe (lockdowns to blame there), whilst the glow from the $600-a-week stimulus cheques (which stopped at the end of July) is dimming quickly. And whilst we believe new stimulus measures are coming over the hill, the longer the delay the tougher it becomes for Main Street.
The European Central Bank (ECB) didn’t do anything but sounded more dovish and signalled it is ready to act in December by pumping up its emergency quantitative easing programme.
In fact, there was overall a surprisingly strong pre-commitment to taking additional easing measures in December. It’s all but a down deal now that France and Germany have locked down and the economy is heading for another recession.
The euro fell, weighed down by the dollar’s advance but also because of the ECB’s stance. Christine Lagarde said staff were working on recalibrating all instruments, which means even interest rates could be cut further in addition to expanding QE envelopes.
EURUSD dropped to take a 1.16 handle but found support at the 100-day SMA at 1.1650. Cable traded weaker, briefly taking a 1.28 handle but caught some bid around the 1.29 level to steady the ship. 100-day SMA at 1.2877 offers the near-term support under here.
More upbeat numbers from the high street banks with Natwest this morning reporting Q3 operating profit more than twice market estimates at £355m vs ~£130m expected.
Impairments were half the market expectations at £254m vs over £550m expected. CET1 very strong at 18.2%, net interest margin down 2bps to 1.65%. A good set of numbers to round off a strong performance by the UK banks but doubts remain about a potential increase in impairments down the road, weak economic growth in the UK, Brexit challenges, and the threat of negative rates eating away at margins.
Big tech reported earnings that showed its resilience to the virus but also betrayed just how richly priced these stocks are in the wake of the pandemic. With the exception of Google parent Alphabet, shares fell across the board after hours, which weighed on US futures overnight.
Alphabet shares rose over 6% in after-hours trading as earnings indicated a bounce back in the search business. EPS of $16.40 beat the $11.29 expected, on revenues of $46.17bn. Advertising revenue rose to $37.10bn, compared to $33.80 bn in the year-ago quarter. YouTube +32% was notably strong. Alphabet will start breaking out its cloud earnings performance from the next quarter.
Amazon posted a blowout third quarter of revenue growth and is poised to capitalise on a record Christmas shopping season. Net income rose to $6.3bn vs $2.1bn in the same quarter a year before despite spending significant amounts on coping with the virus.
In total, Amazon has incurred more than $7.5bn in incremental Covid-related costs in the first three quarters of 2020, and expects to incur approximately $4bn in Q4, CFO Brian Olsavsky said. AWS net sales rose 29% to $11.bn. Shars slipped almost 2% in the after-hours market.
Facebook shares fell 3% after-market as it posted a decline in North American users and signalled more uncertainty ahead. Revenue +22% to $21.47bn was a beat to expectations, whilst net income was +29% to $7.85bn. Whilst the shift offline to online among business and retail is a powerful tailwind for the advertising earnings, shares priced for lots of growth are just as sensitive to user numbers and the drop in core US/Canada users is a concern.
Similarly, Twitter shares got whacked after hours as it too posted a disappointing user growth story. Revenues rose 14% to $936m in the quarter, but the +1m gain on daily active users to 187m was short of the 195m expected.
Finally, Apple shares fell 5% after hours as a 20% decline in iPhone revenues weighed on the stock, whilst the lack of any guidance for 2021 was taken as a negative.
Whilst Mac and iPad sales rose strongly over the company’s fiscal fourth quarter, it was not enough to offset the drop in iPhone sales. However, with the quarter covering the period immediately before the launch of the iPhone 12, we would think that weakness in iPhones will prove fleeting.
Mac revenues +28% to $9bn and iPad sales +46% to $6.8bn partially offset iPhone’s –20.7% to $26.44bn. EPS of $0.73 beat the $0.70 expected, whilst overall group revenues rose 1%. Services continues to do well, with revenues +16.3% to $14.55bn.
Uncertainty around the virus means Apple continues to not offer guidance, however Tim Cook said he was optimistic about the iPhone 12 and is ‘confident’ Apple will grow in Q1 2021. Ecosystem is still the biggest draw and should support the multiple expansion.
Volgende week: cijfers Big Tech zorgen voor volatiliteit voorafgaand aan verkiezingen
Het gaat een volatiele week worden voor de Amerikaanse markten nu Big Tech met cijfers naar Wall Street zal komen. Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet en Facebook zijn de grootste namen die hun kwartaalupdates publiceren. Tussendoor komen ook de centrale banken in actie. De Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada en de Europese Centrale Bank houden allemaal beleidsvergaderingen. Natuurlijk tellen we ook af naar de Amerikaanse presidentsverkiezingen op 3 november en gaat onze aandacht uit naar de Vix.
Cijfers van Big Tech
Het wordt een drukke week voor de beurzen. Ongetwijfeld zullen de meeste ogen zijn gericht op de FAANG’s: donderdag rapporteren Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) en Facebook (FB) allemaal hun kwartaalcijfers. De cijfers van Big Tech liggen onder een vergrootglas nu het Amerikaanse ministerie van Justitie een antitrustonderzoek heeft geopend naar het Alphabet, het moederbedrijf van Google, vanwege het vermoeden dat er overeenkomsten zijn gesloten met fabrikanten van mobiele telefoons en telecomproviders om Google als standaard zoekmachine te gebruiken. Hoewel beleggers vooralsnog niet onder de indruk lijken, kunnen de cijfers wellicht zorgen voor meer volatiliteit op de aandelenmarkten.
Ondertussen groeit de angst dat het onderzoek ook impact op de diensten van Apple kan hebben. Volgens het ministerie van Justitie verdient Apple tussen $ 8 en $ 12 miljard per jaar via Google, ongeveer 17 tot 26 procent van de totale omzet die het bedrijf vorig jaar uit diensten haalde. Apple kondigde onlangs weliswaar de iPhone 12 aan, maar een steeds groter deel van de aandelenprijs wordt bepaald door het ecosysteem en de omzet uit diensten. Desalniettemin zijn beleggers nog altijd bullish op de techgiganten en behoren deze aandelen tot de grootste stijgers van het jaar. Microsoft komt dinsdag met cijfers. Ook de dagen daarna zullen talloze large caps met hun kwartaalupdates komen.
Nu de euro weer terrein wint ten opzichte van de Amerikaanse dollar, zullen de FX-markten de uitkomst van de vergadering van de Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) op donderdag nauwgezet volgen. De verwachting van de markten is dat de ECB zal doorgaan met stimuleringsmaatregelen om de tegenvallende economische groei en afnemende inflatie op te vangen. In de eurozone is er nu twee maanden op rij sprake geweest van deflatie. Nu steeds meer landen te maken krijgen met nieuwe lockdowns, is de economische outlook sinds de laatste beleidsvergadering duidelijk verslechterd. De dreiging van een double-dip-recessie is reëel: Christine Lagarde van de ECB vertelde onlangs dat de heropleving van het virus een groot economisch risico is. Gezien de troebele vooruitzichten en met de zorgwekkende inflatiecijfers in het achterhoofd lijkt het vrijwel zeker dat de ECB tot aan december het opkoopprogramma met nog eens € 500 miljard zal verhogen.
Om een idee te krijgen van de stemming in de ECB, zei de doorgaans uitgesproken directeur van de Oostenrijkse centrale bank, Robert Holzmann, het volgende: „Duurzame, uitgebreide of strenge beheersingsmaatregelen zullen op korte termijn waarschijnlijk meer monetaire en fiscale inschikkelijkheid vereisen.”
Ook de Bank of Japan en de Bank of Canada houden deze week hun beleidsvergaderingen.
De verwachte groei van het Amerikaanse BBP in het derde kwartaal zal veel aandacht krijgen, nu de markten op zoek zijn naar handvatten over de snelheid en duurzaamheid van het economisch herstel. Naar verwachting zal de economische groei rond de 30 procent bedragen omdat bedrijven weer zijn opengegaan na het opheffen van de lockdowns. De federale bank van Atlanta voorspelt dat de economie op kwartaalbasis met 35 procent is gegroeid, al moet dit wel worden afgezet tegen een krimp van 31 procent in het tweede kwartaal. De BBP-cijfers komen op een goed moment voor Donald Trump, die het economisch herstel graag op zijn conto zal willen schrijven.
De laatste loodjes: de peilingen zullen weinig veranderen, aangezien het aantal zwevende kiezers nog altijd zeer laag is. Nationaal gezien gaat Biden met een ruime marge aan de leiding, maar in de belangrijkste staten zijn de verschillen klein. We organiseren een speciale live-uitzending over de verkiezingen op 2 november om de impact op de markten te bespreken.
Belangrijke economische data deze week
Open de economische kalender op het platform voor een volledig overzicht van alle belangrijke data.
|Oct 26th||German Ifo business climate|
|Oct 26th||UK Nationwide house price index|
|Oct 26th||US new home sales|
|Oct 26th||SNB Chairman Jordan speaks|
|Oct 27th||BoJ core CPI|
|Oct 27th||US durable goods, core durable goods|
|Oct 27th||US CB consumer confidence|
|Oct 28th||Australia CPI inflation|
|Oct 28th||Bank of Canada rate decision|
|Oct 28th||EIA crude oil inventories|
|Oct 28th||FOMC member Kaplan speaks|
|Oct 29th||Bank of Japan policy statement & economic outlook|
|Oct 29th||German preliminary CPI inflation|
|Oct 29th||UK mortgage approvals & lending figures|
|Oct 29th||US advanced GDP – Q3|
|Oct 29th||US weekly jobless claims|
|Oct 29th||ECB policy decision & press conference|
|Oct 29th||US pending home sales|
|Oct 29th||US natural gas storage|
|Oct 30th||Tokyo core CPI|
|Oct 30th||Japan industrial production|
|Oct 30th||French flash GDP|
|Oct 30th||German preliminary GDP|
|Oct 30th||Eurozone CPI flash estimates|
|Oct 30th||Canada GDP|
|Oct 30th||US personal spending & core PCE price index|
|Oct 30th||Chicago PMI|
|Oct 30th||UoM consumer sentiment|
Belangrijke cijfers deze week
Denk ook aan onze dagelijkse winstcijfer-specials op XRay voor meer updates
|26-Oct||SAP SE||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|27-Oct||Microsoft Corp.||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|27-Oct||Pfizer Inc.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|27-Oct||Ping An Insurance Co.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|27-Oct||Merck Co.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|27-Oct||Novartis AG||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|27-Oct||Eli Lilly and Co.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|27-Oct||3M Co.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|27-Oct||AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) Inc.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|27-Oct||Caterpillar Inc.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|27-Oct||HSBC Holdings plc||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|27-Oct||S&P Global Inc||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|27-Oct||BP plc||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|28-Oct||Visa Inc.||Q4 2020 Earnings|
|28-Oct||MasterCard Inc.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|28-Oct||United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS)||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|28-Oct||Amgen Inc.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|28-Oct||ServiceNow Inc||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|28-Oct||Boeing Co.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|28-Oct||Sony Corp.||Q2 2020 Earnings|
|28-Oct||GlaxoSmithKline plc (GSK)||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|28-Oct||Gilead Sciences Inc.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|28-Oct||Anthem Inc.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|28-Oct||Equinix Inc||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|29-Oct||Apple Inc.||Q4 2020 Earnings|
|29-Oct||Amazon||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|29-Oct||Alphabet||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|29-Oct||Facebook Inc.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|29-Oct||Samsung||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|29-Oct||China Life Insurance Co Ltd (A)||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|29-Oct||Comcast Corp. (Class A)||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|29-Oct||Shopify Inc (A)||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|29-Oct||Sanofi S.A.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|29-Oct||AB InBev SA-NV (Anheuser-Busch InBev)||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|29-Oct||American Tower Corp.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|29-Oct||Starbucks Corp.||Q4 2020 Earnings|
|29-Oct||Shell (Royal Dutch Shell)||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|29-Oct||Volkswagen (VW) St.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|29-Oct||Stryker Corp.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|29-Oct||China Petroleum & Chemical (Sinopec) (A)||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|29-Oct||China Life Insurance Co. Ltd.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|30-Oct||China Construction Bank Corp.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|30-Oct||AbbVie Inc||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|30-Oct||ExxonMobil Corp. (Exxon Mobil)||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|30-Oct||Chevron Corp.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|30-Oct||Honeywell||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|30-Oct||PetroChina Co Ltd (A)||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|30-Oct||Postal Savings Bank of China Registered Shs -A-||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|30-Oct||TOTAL S.A.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|30-Oct||AUDI AG||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|30-Oct||Altria Inc.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|30-Oct||Colgate-Palmolive Co.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|31-Oct||Berkshire Hathaway Inc.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|31-Oct||Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd (A)||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|31-Oct||Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|31-Oct||China Merchants Bank Co Ltd.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|31-Oct||Bank of China Ltd||Q3 2020 Earnings|
Nikola shares tumble (again)
Volume leaders today include Apple as normal, as well as Peloton after a blow-out earnings report – EPS of $0.27 almost treble the street consensus of $0.10 indicating the stay-at-home Covid trend is playing out well for the brand. A new cheaper version of its bike should help, too. Apple shares were flat, with Peloton up just +1%, well below its highs.
Hidenburg Research slams Nikola, shares tumble
Nikola shares fell about 15% on high volumes after the Hindenburg Research article. Whilst shares had fallen yesterday following publication, it seems investors have taken fright at the lack of any detailed refutation by Nikola.
A statement today from the company only said the allegations are not accurate and described the report as a ‘hit job’. If it is a hit job, it’s been a very well timed one with the stock having jumped only a couple of days prior on the tie-up with GM. But the lack of detail from the company so far has left investors unimpressed.
Without being able to comment on the details of the report, short attacks can and do happen, and more often than often there is rarely smoke without fire.
Equities move higher into the weekend
Elsewhere, the S&P 500 ticked higher after testing yesterday’s cash close at 3,339, with the 50-day line offering further support untested at 3,321.90. Yesterday’s tap on the 21-day SMA at 3,425 looks a long way off. Nasdaq also higher as risk is catching some bid into the weekend.
European equity markets are closing the day out with some decent weekly gains in the bag. Overall we have seen a real divergence between the US and Europe this week with equity markets this side of the pond doing better. Partly that is down to the rotation out of tech, but also we need to be aware of election risk that will play an increasing role in driving sentiment over the next month and a half.
Crude oil found some bid as the risk sentiment improved as the US session progressed.
Listening to the usual talking heads it seems there is more appetite for value after the three-day tech rout saw the penny drop for many that valuations had gotten out of hand. Let’s see how that goes with Ocado and Next on stage next week.
Brexit headline risk keeps pressure on GBPUSD
In FX, DXY ran out of gas at 93.38 as it tries to make another stab at the top of the descending wedge. GBPUSD tried three times to break below 1.2770 today but the level has just about held for now – sterling remains exposed to Brexit headline risks and bulls may be thin on the ground.
Post fix it looks pretty meek and liable to further downside into the weekend with UK-EU trade talks next week in focus. The current consolidation range looks pretty bearish and flaggy but we should always caution that sellers can get exhausted into the weekend just much as buyers can and there may be some profits being taken.
FTSE lags as dollar continues to drop
Back to school: the unruly mob are back. But that is enough about MPs going back to work – children start the autumn term this week and the furlough scheme starts to unwind with the government reducing its contribution to employees’ wages to 70% in September.
Furlough forever is simply not an option – zombie staff, zombie businesses. But it means unemployment is surely set to rise – and consumer confidence always follows. The chancellor is floating a tax raid – better to monetize the debt surely?
Stocks soft after strong August
Stocks were a tad weaker on Monday, but August was a great month. The MSCI World index rose 6.6% and the S&P rallied over 7% to record their best August since 1986. The Nasdaq rose 10%. August is usually a poor month for stocks.
Tuesday morning saw a firm bounce for the major European bourses, though the FTSE 100 lagged as it played catchup following the bank holiday. A stronger sterling is also dragging on the big dollar earners. AstraZeneca has started large-scale human trials of its coronavirus candidate vaccine in the US.
The Federal Reserve has put a floor under markets and a ceiling on rates, delivering conditions where stocks can only float higher. We call this TINA – There Is No Alternative. It’s not sustainable of course, but it won’t stop the Fed and other central banks continuing to inflate the bubble. The Fed’s policy shift on inflation has marked a important change for the central bank and it may be followed by the ECB and others.
Vix futures – the so-called ‘fear gauge’ are telling another story. These have started to grind higher despite stocks rallying, which raises a warning about the future path of the market. As previously mentioned, volatility should rise as the election approaches and the races proves far tighter than it currently looks. In summary, the options market is sending a signal that the stock market is not.
Strong China manufacturing PMI lifts sentiment, despite soft readings from France, Spain
Sentiment this morning is helped by data showing Chinese factory activity rose at the fastest pace since 2011. French and Spanish manufacturing PMIs softened, dropping under 50 to signal contraction, while Italy’s was a little better than expected at 53.1.
Some of the moves in US shares are striking. Apple rose over 3% to $129 after splitting, whilst Tesla shares rocketed 13% on its busiest day ever. Stock splits shouldn’t make a difference, except this time they have. Tesla is up 74% for the month.
Zoom races higher after smashing earnings forecasts
Zoom rose almost 23% in after-hours trade after it reported a 355% rise in revenues to $663.5m for the July quarter, smashing forecasts for around $500m. Zoom has proved to be a Covid winner of epic proportions – but shouldn’t we all be going back to the office by now? The UK significantly lags Europe and others in ‘getting back to work’ statistics – this has a huge implication for productivity and for the wider economy.
The dollar continues to soften and trying to guess the bottom is akin to catching a falling knife. The dollar index sank to fresh two-year lows in the wake of the Fed’s inflation shift. Perennial dollar bulls have been caught off guard with the unwind, however the Fed’s recent shift on inflation targeting only underlines that bears called this early.
More inflation and a central bank prepared to let it happen should reduce the purchasing power of the dollar and therefore it ought to weaken. However, with the buck usually a safe harbour, it shouldn’t soften too much more.
The pound was up, with GBPUSD pressing on the post-election euphoria high of last December a little above 1.34. There are Brexit risks ahead – talks recommence next week – but for the moment the major driver of this is the dollar’s weakness. Gold futures rose to $2,000/oz as the weaker dollar lifted commodity markets and US real rates – 10-year TIPS – have sunk again as inflation expectations rise.
Volgende week: Aandelensplitsing AAPL & TSLA, herschikking Dow, focus op NFP
Wat kunnen we verwachten van Apple en Tesla na de aandelensplitsing? Hoe zal de Dow nieuwe-stijl reageren op de laatste marktupdates? En blijft de Amerikaanse werkgelegenheid buiten de landbouwsector sterk groeien?
Aandelensplitsing Apple en Tesla
Vanaf deze week worden Apple en Tesla verhandeld tegen hun nieuwe prijs, die van na de recente splitsing. AAPL zal met een kwart dalen, TSLA met een vijfde. Beide aandelen zagen een hoge waardering sinds de aankondiging van de splitsing, waarbij Apple vorige week boven de $500 per aandeel steeg en Tesla bleef klimmen nadat het aandeel recentelijk de $2000 passeerde.
Aandelen dalen vaak na een splitsing, omdat aandeelhouders dan winst nemen op een deel van hun aandelen, maar dit kan tijdelijk zijn. Apple zal binnenkort de laatste serie iPhones onthullen, inclusief de langverwachte 5G-modellen. Bij Tesla is het aandeelhoudersevent Battery Day gepland op 22 september, en wellicht worden daar innovaties gepresenteerd die het bereik en de prestaties van de auto’s verbeteren.
Meer over de aandelensplitsing en de invloed hiervan op lopende transacties vindt u hier.
De Dow Jones Index nieuwe-stijl
Na de aandelensplitsing van Apple is ook de Dow Jones Index niet meer hetzelfde vanaf deze week. Anders dan de S&P 500, die zich baseert op marktkapitalisatie, is de Dow Jones een prijsgewogen index; als de aandelen Apple 75% minder waard zijn, heeft dat diverse gevolgen.
Ten eerste heeft Apple niet meer het meeste gewicht in de index, en daalt het aandeel van de eerste naar ongeveer de 17e plaats. Dit betekent dat volatiliteit van het aandeel minder impact heeft op de Dow dan voorheen. United Health wordt het grootste aandeel in de index, en krijgt dus meer gewicht.
Daar komt bij dat diverse aandelen uit de index zijn verdwenen om plaats te maken voor nieuwe, om zo de samenstelling met ruwweg een kwart techaandelen in stand te houden. Meer over de veranderingen leest u hier.
Resultaten Zoom Video Communications
Na het begin van de pandemie groeide Zoom uit tot een essentiële dienst voor bedrijven wereldwijd. Ook het privégebruik groeide sterk; consumenten gebruikten de dienst voor van alles, van online dates tot het streamen van bruiloften en zelfs begrafenissen. Het aantal gebruikers groeide met 354% ten opzichte van vorig jaar in het eerste kwartaal, en de omzet steeg met 169%.
Investeerders doken daarom op het aandeel, met als gevolg een spectaculaire stijging van 330% tot nu toe dit jaar.
Momenteel rekenen analisten op een omzet van bijna $500 en een winst per aandeel van $0,45 – wat neerkomt op een groei van 462,5% ten opzichte van het vorige jaar.
Gaat de Reserve Bank of Australia de beleidsrente aanpassen?
De Reserve Bank of Australia vergadert deze week. Vorige maand besloten beleidsmakers tot meer kwantitatieve versoepeling en erkenden ze dat een economische klap zou volgen na het instellen van een volledige lockdown in Victoria – de op één na grootste staat qua bevolking en economie – maar lieten ze de rente onaangeroerd.
De ASX cash rentefutures laten zien dat een kleine meerderheid van de marktparticipanten verwacht dat de RBA de rente deze keer op 0% zet. Gouverneur Philip Love liet eerder echter doorschemeren te denken aan een renteverlaging naar 0,1%, mocht verdere bijstelling nodig zijn, dus zelfs als beleidsmakers de noodzaak van verdere versoepeling zien, leidt die weg misschien niet naar nul.
Banen buiten de agrarische sector in de VS
De aandacht gaat uiteraard vooral uit naar gegevens die vrijdag gepubliceerd worden over banen buiten de agrarische sector in de VS. De banengroei overtrof vorige maand opnieuw de verwachtingen, hoewel herstel van de arbeidsmarkt beperkt bleef tot 1,763 miljoen en een oplopend aantal corona-gevallen de invulling van vacatures hinderde.
Uit recente data blijkt een daling van het aantal initiële en doorlopende uitkeringsaanvragen: het aantal nieuwe aanvragen voor een werkloosheidsuitkering daalde – voor het eerst sinds de start van de pandemie – onder 1 miljoen in de week die eindigde op 8 augustus. Het vierwekelijkse gemiddelde van de aanvragen daalde consistent gedurende een aantal weken, en ook het aantal doorlopende aanvragen.
Hoogtepunten op XRay deze week
Bekijk de volledige agenda van financiële marktanalyses en trainingen.
|07.15 UTC||Daily||European Morning Call|
|12.00 UTC||31-Aug||Master the Markets|
|From 15.30 UTC||1-Sep||Weekly Gold, Silver, and Oil Forecasts|
|17.00 UTC||3-Sep||Election2020 Weekly|
Belangrijke economische agendapunten
Kijk uit naar de belangrijkste economische agendapunten deze week:
|12.00 UTC||31-Aug||German Preliminary CPI|
|After-Market||31-Aug||Zoom Video Communications – Q2 2021|
|00.45 UTC||01-Sep||China Caixin Manufacturing PMI|
|4.30 UTC||01-Sep||RBA Official Cash Rate Decision|
|7.15 – 8.00 UTC||01-Sep||Finalised Eurozone Manufacturing PMIS|
|8.30 UTC||01-Sep||Finalised UK Manufacturing PMI|
|10.00 UTC||01-Sep||Eurozone Flash CPI|
|14.00 UTC||01-Sep||US ISM Manufacturing PMI|
|1.30 UTC||02-Sep||Australia Quarterly GDP|
|14.30 UTC||02-Sep||US EIA Crude Oil Inventories|
|1.30 UTC||03-Sep||Australia Trade Balance|
|00.45 UTC||03-Sep||China Caixin Services PMI|
|7.15 – 8.00 UTC||03-Sep||Finalised Eurozone Services PMIs|
|8.30 UTC||03-Sep||Finalised UK Services PMI|
|12.30 UTC||03-Sep||US Jobless Claims|
|14.00 UTC||03-Sep||US ISM Nonmanufacturing PMI|
|14.30 UTC||03-Sep||US EIA Natural Gas Storage|
|1.30 UTC||04-Sep||Australia Retail Sales|
|6.00 UTC||04-Sep||German Factory Orders|
|12.30 UTC||04-Sep||US Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate|
Dow reshuffle: Exxon, Pfizer, Raytheon out; Amgen, Salesforce.com, Honeywell in
Exxon Mobil, Raytheon and Pfizer are to be dropped – all stocks dropped on Tuesday after the announcement late on Monday. As of August 31st, they will be replaced by Honeywell, Salesforce.com and Amgen. All three rose sharply on anticipated rebalancing into these stocks by passive and tracker funds.
It leaves United Health the largest stock on the Dow, with the Apple stock split reducing its weighting as the Dow is a price-weighted index. Many may question why the likes of Amazon, Facebook or Alphabet have not been included instead, but the thinking around index composition for the Dow has never been entirely clear.
What do hedge funds, analysts and insiders say about these new Dow components?
Apple and Tesla announce stock splits – here’s what you need to know
Apple and Tesla have both announced that they will split their stocks at the end of this month. Apple shareholders will be granted three additional shares for each one they hold, while Tesla shareholders will receive another four shares for each one they hold.
The price of each share will be divided by the size of the split to reflect the increased supply: AAPL will start trading at 0.25 times the pre-split price, while Tesla stock will trade at 0.2 times the pre-split price.
But why are Apple and Tesla splitting their stocks, and how will this affect your trades?
Why are Apple and Tesla splitting their stocks?
Apple was the first to announce its stock split earlier this month, followed a few days later by Tesla. Both shares have rallied hard since the announcements although a split shouldn’t theoretically affect their value.
Stock splits usually happen for two reasons: to increase liquidity and to make the stock more attractive to retail investors.
An asset’s liquidity refers to how easily it can be bought and sold without impacting its price. Putting more shares into circulation often increases its trading volume, which can narrow the spread between bid and ask prices. This could make it easier for buyers and sellers to get a fair price for the shares they want or have.
Apple stock currently trades for around $430 per share, while Tesla has surged towards $2,000 recently. The high valuation could be putting investors off. Shares are often bought and sold in standardised blocks – a “board lot” of 100 shares would cost an investor $43,000. If the stock were split today, 100 shares would cost $10,750.
However, modern ways of trading shares (such as leveraged products like Contracts for Difference) have made it more affordable to trade even expensive stocks, so the benefit isn’t as obvious as it used to be
Regardless of the why the decision was made, investors have taken it as a sign of confidence in the stock – Apple and Tesla wouldn’t want to lower their share price if the companies felt that there wasn’t the potential for further appreciation.
How will the stock splits affect my trades?
On August 31st Apple stock will start trading at a quarter of the pre-split price, and Tesla will begin trading at a fifth of the pre-split price.
Any existing positions on AAPL CFDs will be closed at the original opening price and new positions opened at the new split-adjusted price but for four times more units. The same will happen with positions on TSLA CFDs, but with five times more units.
See below for an example – note that the prices given are based upon the market value as of August 20th and are for indicative purposes only.
- Before the split you have 100 units of Apple CFDs, each valued at $462 for a total value of $46,200.
- When the stock is split your position for 100 units will be closed at the original opening price (so P&L will display as zero) and a new position will be opened that is four times larger. In this instance your holdings would now be for 400 units of Apple CFDs.
- The price of each unit will be worth a quarter of the pre-split price, meaning in this example each unit is valued at $115.50 for a total for $46,200 – exactly as before.
If you didn’t already have a position in Apple and wanted to trade it, or want to expand an existing position, you would be able to buy the same quantity of units for a lower price, or more units for the same cost as before.
In effect, the size of your AAPL and TSLA positions will be multiplied by the same quantity as the stock prices are divided by, meaning the value of your holdings will not change.
How the Apple split will impact the Dow
Anyone trading the Dow will also need to pay attention to the Apple stock split.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index, so when Apple’s stock price drops thanks to the split the company will no longer be the index’s biggest constituent (that will be UnitedHealth).
Moves in Apple stock will therefore have less of an influence on the Dow than they currently do.
Will other companies copy Apple and Tesla?
Investors are now looking to other tech giants to see whether they decide to follow suit. Amazon and Alphabet will be of particular interest – Amazon’s stock price is over $3,100, while Alphabet is trading near $1,500 at the time of writing.
A lower stock price for Apple would make the stock more attractive, and Amazon and Alphabet may want to ensure they aren’t pricing potential investors out of the market. However, as the huge cost of an individual share in either of them proves, neither Amazon nor Alphabet has felt the need to resist high prices in the past.
Fed minutes waltz away with risk appetite
FOMC minutes are casting a shadow over markets and underline that any recovery is not going to be a straight line of advances. The Fed layered on the risks and caution thick, but didn’t come up with any sweeteners for the market in the shape of more easing.
The US dollar roared back, gold tanked, and stocks are wobbling after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting left investors a little disappointed. Members clearly backed away from yield curve control and seemed to be in less of a hurry to push for clearer forward guidance.
‘With regard to the outlook for monetary policy beyond this meeting, a number of participants noted that providing greater clarity regarding the likely path of the target range for the federal funds rate would be appropriate at some point,” the minutes said. This use of the phrase ‘at some point’ indicated members are not in a rush to tie rate hikes to specific economic goals. The Fed also noted that most members judged yield curve control ‘would likely provide only modest benefits in the current environment’.
The FOMC meets again in mid-September and will be reviewing the recent economic progress. For now it seems the Fed doesn’t feel the need to go quickly on more explicit forward guidance as the economy is still ‘in’ the pandemic – as long as cases rage we know what the Fed will do. The question comes on the exit – how quickly does the economy need to recover into the autumn for the Fed to feel the need to tie tightening to specific economic goals – the purpose of which would be to keep markets on an even keel.
Equities trip on FOMC minutes
The S&P 500 flirted with 3,400 in the early part of Wednesday’s session but shot 50pts lower after the minutes were released, ending down 0.44% to 3,374.85. The Dow and Nasdaq both tripped up as well. Asian markets fell overnight. European equity indices are taking their cue from this weak handover and dropped over 1% in early trade, before stocks pulled off the lows after China’s ministry of commerce said this morning that US-China trade talks would resume in the coming days. Vix futures are still pointing to increased volatility as we head towards the US election in November.
Apple hits $2tn market cap
Apple advanced to a new record high and became the world’s first $2tn company as it rose above $467 but closed flat at $462.83. There is a lot going on here – some of which is driven by Apple’s business and some of which is due to external factors. Apple has created a brand with immense power, and investors have really bought into the pivot towards Services to generate more sustainable revenues than being a pure play hardware manufacturer.
The upcoming rollout of 5G iPhones is a prime factor, as is its very strong balance sheet. I also think we could throw in the upcoming stock split as a factor as despite the fact it ought not to matter to the share price, it will undoubtedly make it easier for retail investors – a growing crop of US day traders – to buy the shares. Cf Tesla. And it’s a Covid-winner – the thirst for high quality growth has been well documented.
Dollar up, Brexit headline risks could weigh on sterling
The dollar caught a strong bid after the minutes. EURUSD fell from 1.1940 to 1.1840 where it has found support and is pushing off this level to pare some of the losses this morning. Cable also shipped two big figures in the last day and is now under 1.31 with near-term horizontal support at 1.3050. Brexit headline risks remain as trade talks continue this week – update coming tomorrow but we could get wire reports to knock the stuffing out of sterling. Overall if this is a cyclical dollar bear market then we would see this as a temporary blip.
Delivery Hero – a beneficiary of an increase in orders due to the pandemic – has been named the replacement for the disastrous, scandal ridden Wirecard on the DAX. The food delivery company will join the German blue-chip index on Monday. Delivery Hero is on course to deliver one billion orders this year, thanks in large part to the lockdowns.
Another sub-1m print for US jobless figures?
US initial jobless claims today are expected to come in under 1m again, with continuing claims at 15m. Last week’s report showed jobless claims fell under 1m for the first time since the pandemic, but unemployment levels remain exceptionally high and the concern is that temporary layoffs become permanent. The rate of change is not going to improve – the easy wins are behind us and the hard slog lies in front.
EIA crude oil inventories showed a draw of 1.6m barrels last week, while gasoline stocks declined by 3.3m barrels. WTI crude prices nudged up to $43.20 before pulling back as risk assets came under pressure from the Fed minutes. Copper prices broke above $3 for the first time in over two years but failed to sustain the move after the minutes and pared gains.
Tomorrow morning watch for Eurozone PMIs (ignore) and UK retail sales. Sales rebounded 13.9% in June after May’s 12.3% jump, which almost took total sales back to where they were before the pandemic. We know however that these masks huge shifts in how people spend their money. We also know that when furlough schemes end and we get a real increase in unemployment, people will be tightening their belts.
FTSE 100 completes 400pt round trip this week
Stocks turned broadly weaker yesterday as investors reacted to some stinky data from Europe and the US. Overnight Asian data has also had the whiff of soft cheese that’s been left out too long. Stocks are softer once more, though most of Europe is on holiday so the focus is on London until New York opens.
The S&P 500 eased back almost 1% to relinquish the 61.8% retracement at 2934 but closing at 2912 it finished well off the lows. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 recorded their best months since 1987 as equity markets rebounded on central bank largesse, government bailouts and the outperformance of US tech over just about anything else. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was up 19% for the month and is nearly flat for the year. It’s shame we don’t really have any tech firms left, as nothing else is growing.
The FTSE 100 endured a terrible session, finishing 3.5% weaker as Shell tumbled, just holding onto 5900 and the 38.2% retracement of the drawdown. At Friday’s open the index shipped another 2% to break under 5800 and move back to where it opened on Monday at 5,752, completing a 400-pt round trip this week. This will be a level bulls will seek to defend. RBS shares rallied 3%, whilst Lloyds fell 4%. RBS said profits fell 59% to £288m as it set aside £800 for loan losses. But revenues were down just 1.6% at £3.2bn – Lloyds reported an 11% decline in revenues. Something doesn’t look right.
South Korean exports declined 24.3%, the worst slump in 11 years. Japanese factory activity fell to its lowest since 2009. The AIG Australian PMI dropped by 17.9 points to 35.8 in April, its largest month-to-month fall in the 28 years since it began. New Zealand consumer confidence fell 21 points in April to 84.8, where it troughed in 2008. Today’s main event will be the US ISM manufacturing PMI, which is seen declining to 36.7 from 49.1 a month ago.
Donald Trump is threatening new tariffs on China in retaliation for the coronavirus – trade tensions back on the agenda won’t be terribly positive for risk appetite but for now remains something on the margins. But the US and Europe will demand China steps up – if we talk about what permanent changes are taking place or what trends have accelerated sharply, then deglobalisation has to be at the forefront.
Apple shares declined in extended trading after it reported a slowdown in revenue growth and declined to offer guidance for the June quarter. It will however continue to buy back stock and increased its share repurchase programme by $50bn. Revenues from iPhones declined 7% to $29bn, but Services revenues rose 16% to $13.3bn. Overall revenue growth was down to +0.5% vs 9% in the previous quarter.
Amazon shares also dipped after hours as it warned massive costs incurred because of Covid-19 could lead it to a first quarterly loss in 5 years. Amazon always spends big when required and is prepared to make the investment at the expense of short-term earnings per share metrics.
Despite these results, both Apple and Amazon are in the camp where you think they will be thriving under the new world order. More smartphone time – yes, more home delivery – yes, more cloud servers required – yes.
Crude oil continues to find bid with front month WTI running to $20 before dropping back to $19. Crude prices are stabilising as OPEC+ cuts begin to take effect this month, potentially easing the supply-demand imbalance. Markets are also more confident about US states reopening for business, which will fuel demand for crude products like gasoline. Texas oil regulators don’t seem prepared to mandate production cuts, with chairman Wayne Christian against plans for 1m bpd reduction.
In FX, yesterday saw a pretty aggressive 4pm fix as we approached the month end. GBPUSD made a big-figure move and rallied through 1.25 and beyond 1.26 but turned back as it approached the Apr 14th swing high at 1.2650 and the 200-day SMA. It looked an easy fade but the euro also spiked but has held its gains, with EURUSD trading at 1.0960, having briefly dipped to 1.0830 after the ECB decision.
GBPUSD fades after hitting near-term resistance
EURUSD – clears 50-day SMA, looking to scale Apr 14th high
Week Ahead: Bumper week with FOMC, ECB, FAANGS & GDP
Welcome to your guide to the week ahead in the markets. Remember you can now find all the key events affecting the markets in our new Events Calendar in the platform.
European Central Bank rate decision
Last week ECB president Christine Lagarde allegedly told EU leaders during a private video summit that the bloc could be facing a drop in GDP of up to 15%, and that their efforts to contain the outbreak have been both too little and too late. Monetary policy can only go so far, but the ECB does still have room to manoeuvre. Expansion of QE will likely be the first port of call if policymakers decide more needs to be done, but minutes from the March 18th meeting show that cutting rates was floated, too.
FOMC decision – has the Fed got any ammunition left?
What’s left for the Federal Reserve to do? Rates have been slashed to zero, and that’s where futures markets see them staying well into 2021 at least. And it’s hard to announce more QE when you’ve already committed to unlimited asset purchases. The key question is what the FOMC has left in reserve in case its vast stimulus measures aren’t enough. Will policymakers set negative rates? Will they buy corporate stocks? Will they explicitly target yields on government bonds? Markets will be looking for reassurance that policymakers still have plenty of ammunition left.
Bumper week of earnings with Apple, Alphabet, Facebook reporting
Netflix has already reported earnings, but this week sees the rest of the FAANG group offering up their quarterly figures. Tesla and Microsoft are also amongst the heavy hitters providing updates this week.
US, Eurozone GDP
We’ve seen piecemeal evidence of the impact COVID-19 has had on the US and Eurozone economies thanks to industrial data, PMIs, and business sentiment figures. But now it’s time to get the full picture, as the US and Eurozone will both publish estimates of Q1 growth. It was initially believed that moderate growth in January and February would have softened the blow from social distancing and widespread lockdowns that went into effect in March. Now the consensus is that the recession expected in Q2 arrived much earlier. Estimates vary wildly, but no matter how dire the results, the figures for Q2 are likely to be way worse.
Heads-Up on Earnings
|After-Market||28-Apr||Alphabet – Q1 2020|
|After-Market||29-Apr||Microsoft – Q3 2020|
|After-Market||29-Apr||Facebook – Q1 2020|
|After-Market||29-Apr||Tesla – Q1 2020|
|After-Market||30-Apr||Apple – Q2 2020|
|After-Market||30-Apr||Amazon – Q1 2020|
|03.00 UTC||28-Apr||BOJ Rate Decision & Outlook Report|
|07.00 UTC||28-Apr||Spanish Unemployment Rate Q1|
|14.00 UTC||28-Apr||US CB Consumer Confidence|
|01.30 UTC||29-Apr||Australia Quarterly CPI|
|12.00 UTC||29-Apr||Germany Preliminary CPI|
|12.30 UTC||29-Apr||US Advance GDP QoQ|
|14.30 UTC||29-Apr||US EIA Crude Oil Inventories|
|18.00 UTC||29-Apr||FOMC Rate Decision|
|09.00 UTC||30-Apr||Eurozone Flash GDP|
|11.45 UTC||30-Apr||ECB Rate Decision and Statement|
|12.30 UTC||30-Apr||US Initial Jobless Claims|
|14.30 UTC||30-Apr||US EIA Natural Gas Storage|