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Khamis Jun 22 2023 12:27
3 min.
The Bank of England fears inflation but loathes doing anything about it. Today it hiked by 50bps to 5.0%, with the customary 7-2 split with the usual suspects backing a hold.
They’ve gone big today but are hardly leaning into the market pricing towards 6% - guidance is still pretty nebulous...I find it hard to think they will stop now with core inflation where it is…but they continue to point to lagged effects and don’t want to commit and send market pricing even higher.
Nutshell: The MPC is in panic mode and probably thinks that by going big today they can trim a few bps of the eventual terminal rate...maybe that ought to have been the thinking from the very start of the hiking cycle. This ought to have been the approach from the start to get in front of the steam roller. I think we call this the recession hike – throw in the towel, admit you cannot get a soft landing and create a recession to tame inflation.
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