La settimana che ci aspetta: In primo piano i verbali del Federal Open Market Committee, gli utili di Walmart, e i prossimi dati del PMI

Questa settimana le catene americane di discount Walmart e Target, e i negozi di articoli per la casa Home Depot e Lowe’s relazioneranno sui loro utili. Quest’anno, con l’eccezione di Target, queste azioni hanno avuto prestazioni decisamente migliori rispetto all’indice S&P 500. Anche le prospettive di politica monetaria globale vedranno un aggiornamento questa settimana, grazie ai verbali del Federal Open Market Committee, della Banca Centrale Europea e della Reserve Bank of Australia, mentre gli indici Flash PMI di agosto contribuiranno a dare un’idea delle prospettive di crescita per il terzo trimestre.

Utili: Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Lowe’s

Le catene di discount Walmart e Target, e i negozi di articoli per la casa Home Depot e Lowe’s hanno avuto rialzi considerevoli dopo la caduta del mercato a marzo. Rispetto ai valori di apertura del 2020, Walmart è in guadagno dell’11%, anche se questo valore è basso se confrontato alla crescita del 28% di Home Depot e dell’ascesa di Lowe’s del 30%. Target rappresenta l’unica eccezione, anche se con guadagni da inizio anno pari al 5% il titolo sta ancora facendo leggermente meglio rispetto alla maggior parte del mercato.

Stando agli analisti della Bank of America, Target e Walmart potrebbero registrare forti utili grazie a maggiori flussi di entrate, a un passaggio tempestivo all’eCommerce, e alla contrazione della spesa – con il primo trimestre che si è fatto carico dei costi legati al Covid.

Home Depot e Lowe’s hanno registrato maggiori guadagni, e gli investitori hanno scommesso su una forte domanda da parte dei consumatori che hanno riempito le case nelle quali sono stati costretti a restare per mesi. Entrambi le aziende sono riuscite a restare aperte nel primo trimestre, mentre altre attività hanno dovuto chiudere, il che ha determinato la crescita del giro d’affari. I mercati osserveranno se questo effetto è stato mitigato nel secondo trimestre nel suo complesso, dal momento che altre aziende hanno riaperto i battenti.

I verbali del Federal Open Market Committee e la relazione della Banca Centrale Europea

Questa settimana riceveremo molte informazioni sullo stato d’animo attuale delle banche centrali mondiali, grazie agli ultimi verbali delle riunioni del Federal Open Market Committee, della Banca Centrale Europea e della Reserve Bank of Australia.

La Fed, la BCE e la RBA hanno tutte mantenuto invariate le loro politiche nelle loro più recenti riunioni, al contempo ribadendo il loro impegno a fare tutto il necessario per supportare l’economia. I verbali forniranno maggiori informazioni sulle prospettive di ciascun ente, e su quanto i decisori delle politiche sono preoccupati riguardo ad una possibile seconda ondata di contagi.

Gli indici Flash PMI permetteranno di dare forma alle previsioni sul terzo trimestre

Ora che i dati sul prodotto interno lordo del secondo trimestre nelle principali economie del mondo sono disponibili (almeno in forma preliminare), l’attenzione potrà rivolgersi sulla previsione per il terzo trimestre. La prossima serie di Flash PMI da Markit coprirà il mese di agosto, e aiuterà a modellare le aspettative relative alla velocità della ripresa in questo trimestre.

Verranno rilasciati per l’Eurozona, per il Regno Unito e per gli Stati Uniti gli ultimi dati sul manifatturiero, sui servizi e gli indicatori compositi. Le letture di luglio sugli indicatori compositi indicano che l’attività economica nell’Eurozona si è espansa al ritmo più elevato degli ultimi due anni, mentre l’incremento nel Regno Unito è stato il più alto da giugno 2015.

Inflazione nel Regno Unito e vendite al dettaglio

La crescita dei prezzi nel Regno Unito è stata leggermente superiore alle previsioni a giugno, passando dallo 0,5% allo 0,6% su base annua rispetto alle aspettative di un decremento dello 0,4%. Tuttavia, l’inflazione è tuttora ai livelli più bassi da quattro anni a questa parte, e gli analisti non ritengono che l’aumento di giugno sia da leggere come l’inizio di un trend costante verso l’alto. Si prevede che le potenzialità non utilizzate nell’economia mantengano un freno alla crescita dei prezzi, o addirittura che il tasso rallenti ulteriormente.

Le vendite al dettaglio hanno mostrato un aumento maggiore del previsto a giugno, con un balzo del 13,9% sul mese, che fa seguito a un aumento del 12,3% a maggio. Nonostante questi dati positivi, molti negozi hanno recentemente annunciato tagli ai posti di lavoro. I dati del British Retail Consortium indicano un’ulteriore crescita delle vendite a luglio, ma con il mercato dell’online che ancora fa la parte del leone, la minaccia sui negozi tradizionali del Regno Unito rimane intatta.

In evidenza su XRay questa settimana

Leggi il programma completo dell’analisi e formazione del mercato finanziario.

07.15 UTC Daily European Morning Call
12.00 UTC 17⁠-⁠⁠Aug Master the Markets
From 15.30 UTC 18-⁠⁠Aug Weekly Gold, Silver, and Oil Forecasts
17.00 UTC 19-⁠⁠Aug Using candlestick charts to form the basis of your trading analysis
17.00 UTC 20⁠-⁠⁠Aug Election2020 Weekly

I principali rapporti sugli utili di questa settimana

22.30 GMT 17-Aug BHP Billiton – Q4 2020
Pre-Market 18-Aug Walmart – Q2 2021
Pre-Market 18-Aug Home Depot – Q2 2020
Pre-Market 19-Aug Lowe’s Companies – Q2 2020
Pre-Market 19-Aug Target Corp – Q2 2020
After-Market 19-Aug NVIDIA – Q2 2021
After-Market 20-Aug Ross Stores – Q2 2020

Eventi economici principali

Presta attenzione agli eventi più importanti sul calendario economico di questa settimana:

01.30 GMT 18-Aug RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
06.00 GMT 19-Aug UK Inflation
14.30 GMT 19-Aug US EIA Crude Oil Inventories
18.00 GMT 19-Aug US FOMC Meeting Minutes
11.30 GMT 20-Aug ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
12.30 GMT 20-Aug US Weekly Jobless Claims
14.30 GMT 20-Aug US EIA Natural Gas Storage
06.00 GMT 21-Aug UK Retail Sales
07.15 – 08.00 GMT 21-Aug Eurozone Flash PMIs (Composite, Manufacturing, Services)
08.30 GMT 21-Aug UK Flash PMIs (Composite, Manufacturing, Services)
12.30 GMT 21-Aug Canada Core Retail Sales
13.45 GMT 21-Aug US Flash Manufacturing PMI

Week Ahead: Walmart and Home Depot Earnings, UK April Jobless Claims, May PMIs

We may be reaching the tail end of earnings season, but there are still some eagerly awaited releases lined up this week. Highlights will be reports from Walmart and Home Depot; stock in these companies has seen strong bid even as the wider market has tanked. 

We also have the FOMC minutes, a host of PMIs, and jobless claims data from the UK for April. Here’s your full breakdown of the coming events you need to know about. 

Japan Q1 GDP estimate 

Preliminary Q1 GDP data for Japan is due early on Monday, but as with all Q1 growth data it will serve as the prelude to something much worse. The economy is expected to have contracted -1.2% on the quarter, after a -1.8% decline in the final three months of 2019. Annualised growth is expected to print at -4.6%, again a slowdown from the -7.1% drop recorded in 2019 Q4. 

Forecasts for Q2 expect a 22% decline, the worst since the end of the Second World War. Will the Q1 figures give us any indication of how accurate those estimates might be, or will markets ignore the data and wait for more clarity? 

How many UK jobs have been lost in lockdown? 

The UK reports jobless claims data for April, when the workforce suffered an entire month of lockdown. The number of people filing jobless claims grew by over 12,000 in March: April’s figure is likely to print around 650,000. Unemployment rate figures are also scheduled, but these cover March and so are extremely backwards-looking by this point. A little later on Tuesday morning, the Labour Productivity Index for the first quarter is expected to print at -2.6%. 

UK inflation set to collapse 

April UK inflation data will feel the impact of collapsing retail sales, shuttered businesses, climbing unemployment and furloughed workers. Annualised price growth is expected to slump from 1.5% in May to 0.2% last month, with prices predicted to shrink -0.7% on the month after stagnating in April. The core inflation rate is predicted to drop to 1% on an annualised basis and -0.3% on the month. The contraction in producer prices is predicted to have accelerated to -3.9% on the year, and to have doubled to -0.4% on the month. 

High hopes for Walmart, Home Depot earnings 

Markets think Walmart and Home Depot are well-positioned to weather the coronavirus pandemic. Both stocks are over 4% higher year-to-date at the time of writing, compared to a -13% drop for the S&P 500. Walmart actually hit record highs at the end of April. 

The Wall Street Journal recently reported that Walmart saw a 20% increase in sales during March alone. Markets clearly expect a lot from the leading retailers, but can Walmart and Home Depot deliver? 

Both Walmart and Home Depot have “Strong Buy” ratings according to our Analyst Recommendations tool. Walmart has an average price target of $132.79 which represents a 7% upside on prices at the time of writing. Home Depot has a target price of $238.15, a 4% upside. 

Lowe’s, Target, and Best Buy are amongst the other companies reporting this week. 

FOMC meeting minutes 

We already know a lot more about the current thinking of the Federal Reserve thanks to last week’s speech from chair Jerome Powell. The minutes of the meeting at the end of April could be moot: Powell’s speech gave away what would likely have been the headlines from the minutes, namely that it was likely more stimulus would be necessary, but negative interest rates are not something being considered at this time. 

Eurozone economic sentiment set to go negative again 

April’s ZEW Economic Sentiment surveys for the Eurozone and Germany unexpectedly leapt back into positive territory. Assessment of current conditions remained dire, but investors began to focus on recovery. 

But the reality of the recession that lies between where we are now and where we’re trying to get back to is expected to hit sentiment hard again this month, with the German reading forecast to plummet back to -14 and the Eurozone wide reading dropping to -10. 

UK PMIs headed lower, Eurozone set to bounce off lows 

This week we get the flash PMI readings for May. UK manufacturing is expected to drop to 26.6, while the services index will slip to 9. The overall composite PMI is expected to drop from 13.8 to 9.2. 

Manufacturing and services in the Eurozone and its member states, however, are expected to rebound from their lows as economies began relaxing lockdown measures. Germany’s manufacturing index is predicted to jump around 10 points to 45, while services is forecast to more than double to 37 points. Overall the composite index is expected to climb from 17.4 to 40. The Eurozone composite is expected to rise from 13.6 to 34. 

It’s worth remembering that these figures still represent a huge rate of contraction across all areas of the economy. The Eurozone economy may have bounced back from the initial shock of COVID-19, but there is still a long road ahead – and expectations for how long are getting bigger all the time.

Heads-Up on Earnings 

The following companies are set to publish their quarterly earnings reports this week: 

18-May Ryanair – FY 2020
Pre-Market 19-May Walmart – Q1 2021
Pre-Market 19-May Home Depot – Q1 2020
19-May Imperial Brands – Q2 2020
Pre-Market 20-May Lowe’s – Q1 2020
Pre-Market 20-May Target Corp – Q1 2020
Pre-Market 20-May Analog Devices – Q2 2020
20-May Experian – FY 2020
Pre-Market 21-May Medtronic – Q4 2020
Pre-Market 21-May Best Buy – Q1 2021
After-Market 21-May Intuit – Q3 2020
After-Market 21-May Ross Stores – Q1 2020
After-Market 21-May Agilent Technologies – Q2 2020
After-Market 21-May Hewlett Packard Enterprise – Q2 2020
After-Market 21-May NVIDIA – Q1 2021
22-May Deere & Co – Q2 2020

Highlights on XRay this Week 

17.00 UTC   18-May  Blonde Markets
18.00 UTC  18-May   The Ten Rules of Trading
 15.30 UTC 19-May   Weekly Gold Forecast
 18.00 UTC 19-May Reading Candlestick Charts: Trading Patterns and Trends
11.00 UTC  20-May Midweek Lunch Wrap

Key Economic Events

Watch out for the biggest events on the economic calendar this week:

23.50 UTC 17-May Japan Preliminary Quarterly GDP
01.30 UTC 19-May RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
06.00 UTC 19-May UK Claimant Count Change / Unemployment Rate
09.00 UTC 19-May Germany / Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment
06.00 UTC 20-May UK Inflation
12.30 UTC 20-May Canada Inflation
14.30 UTC 20-May US EIA Crude Oil Inventories
18.00 UTC 20-May FOMC Meeting Minutes
07.15 – 08.00 UTC 21-May FR, DE, Eurozone Flash Services and Manufacturing PMIs
08.30 UTC 21-May UK Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs
12.30 UTC 21-May US Jobless Claims
13.45 UTC 21-May US Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs
22.45 UTC 21-May New Zealand Quarterly Retail Sales
06.00 UTC 22-May UK Retail Sales
12.30 UTC 22-May Canada Core Retail Sales

Week Ahead: Inflation readings to shape central bank views

There are a lot of things going on this week, with inflation leading the headlines.

Inflation 

With investors betting the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in September, Tuesday’s US inflation figures will be of key importance for the direction of global markets. Core CPI advanced 2.1% in June, its biggest increase in a year and a half. If inflation pressures continue to build, it could undermine doves on the FOMC calling for more hikes. UK inflation figures are released on Wednesday. 

China and Germany growth 

Fears about a slowdown in China and Germany are at the heart of investor concerns for the global economy. As such a batch of data from the two countries this week will be important for risk assets. China’s industrial production figures and the German preliminary GDP print on Wednesday will be the most closely watched. 

Walmart and US retail sales  

Q2 earnings season is well past its peak but US retail giant Walmart delivers its quarterly numbers on Thursday before the market opens. Q1 earnings were a positive surprise with EPS of $1.13 beating expectations of $1.02. The key comp sales number hit 3.4%, making it the best quarter in 9 years. Despite fears for the US economy, consumer confidence and retail sales gauges remain robust. On that front, US retail sales numbers are due on Thursday shortly after Walmart reports. 

Tencent and Alibaba 

We’ll also be watching earnings from China giants Tencent and Alibaba. The ongoing trade dispute between the US and China is sure to be a weight, however Chinese consumers have remained relatively robust. For Alibaba, in addition to its ecommerce platform, we’ll be watching to see how well its cloud computing business is doing. Both represent important bellwethers for the Chinese economy. 

Corporate Diary

Earnings season is still going strong, with these earnings releases in the next week.

Pre-Market14th AugustTencent Holdings Ltd – Q2 Earnings
After-Market14th AugustCisco Inc – Q2 Earnings
Pre-Market15th AugustWalmart – Q2 Earnings
15th AugustAlibaba – Q2 Earnings
After-Market15th AugustNVIDIA Corp – Q2 Earnings
XRay

Tune in live or watch on catch-up.

07.15 GMT12th AugustEuropean Morning Call
17.00 GMT12th AugustBlonde Markets
12.30 GMT13th AugustLIVE: US CPI Coverage
15.30 GMT13th AugustAsset of the Day: Bullion Billions
10.00 GMT15th AugustWalmart Earnings Preview: LIVE
Key Economic Events

Watch out for the following economic events in the coming week.

08.30 GMT13th AugustUK Average Earnings
12.30 GMT13th AugustUS CPI Inflation
09.00 GMT13th AugustGermany ZEW Economic Sentiment
01.30 GMT14th AugustAustralia Wage Price Index
02.00 GMT14th AugustChina Industrial Production
08.30 GMT14th AugustUS CPI Inflation
01.30 GMT15th AugustAustralia Unemployment Rate
08.30 GMT15th AugustUK Retail Sales
12.30 GMT15th AugustUS Retail Sales, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

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