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Broad rally for equities as UK goes for lockdown-lite, Tesla fails to spark, precious metals under pressure
European markets rose 1% in early trade on Wednesday, extending mild gains from the previous sessions following the steep selling on Monday. Yesterday, the S&P 500 rose 1%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.7%, whilst markets across Europe were a little more mixed with London and Frankfurt higher but Paris lower.
Today sees solid bid across sectors and bourses with a slate of manufacturing and services PMIs in focus. The FTSE 100 recovered the 5,900 level, with even IAG and easyJet getting in on the action, rising 6% each. Safe-haven play Fresnillo was off by a similar margin as silver and gold prices come under a good deal of pressure again today.
There is no clear evidence for the airlines to rally except that perhaps there was an overreaction earlier in the week.
PMIs underline the fragility of the recovery
I will issue the usual caveat about extrapolating too much from these diffusion indices, but they do highlight an interesting trend. The manufacturing sector can sustain a recovery as firms can work out how to function in the new environment, but it’s harder for many service sector businesses to operate at all, which drags on the number.
Service sector companies are also much more exposed to the caprice of lockdowns. Both German and French services PMIs came in under 50, indicating contraction (survey respondents think things are worse than the month before), while both countries’ manufacturing PMIs pointed to expansion.
The UK is heading for a second lockdown-lite
This will dent the recovery and hit some sectors especially hard, but perhaps more importantly this is spurring the chancellor into action. With the furlough scheme slated to end in October, there is a risk of a jobs calamity even without further lockdown restrictions, which are a possibility.
Rishi Sunak is reported to be working on new plans to support jobs, which may ease worries among investors that the UK economy could fall off a cliff for a second time just as the Brexit process reaches its finale.
Individual stocks are putting some very big moves daily which only indicates the kind of dislocation in market pricing, uncertainty about the path of the pandemic and the fact that no one really knows where a lot of these securities ought to be trading.
Whether it’s value or growth, tech or travel, the unevenness of both the recovery and government policy means it’s hard to know what a fair value is. Trying to extrapolate a narrative to fit all of this is often a fool’s errand.
Tesla stock tumbles after Battery Day reveals fall flat
A case in point: Tesla shares fell over 5% and extended their decline by a further 7% in after-hours trading, despite Elon Musk outlining the company’s plans to halve the cost of battery manufacturing and market an electric car at $25,000. The new battery tech would deliver 16% more range and x6 more power, but the company said production in volume is three years away.
There is some debate about whether Tesla’s Battery Day announcements amount to incremental or revolutionary changes to battery technology, but two things are clear: Tesla has not suddenly acquired warp speed capability, but clearly the company has a roadmap to cheaper, longer life battery technology that it will make itself and will allow it to lead the EV field for a while longer.
Panasonic and other suppliers were hit with Tesla planning to make its own battery. Nevertheless, given all the anticipation around a potential game-changer in battery technology, investors were a little underwhelmed by the news. Tesla’s Frankfurt-listed shares declined 7% at the open, before paring losses a touch.
Nike climbs as online sales surge, Ant Group takes another IPO step
Nike shares shot higher after-market following an 82% rise in online sales, with the company expecting to benefit from a permanent shift to direct online sales. EPS of $0.95 beat the $0.47 expected, on revenues of $10.6bn vs the $9bn expected. Nike continues to benefit from its strong brand presence that is akin to Apple in the smartphone space, as well as large investments in its web and mobile platforms. Shares in Adidas and Puma rose about 4% on the read-across.
Ant Group took a step closer to its mega-IPO after it submitted documents for registrations of the Shanghai side of the listing. The company plans to list both on Shanghai’s STAR Market and in Hong Kong, with valuation estimates in the region of $250bn-$300bn.
Cable softens, BoE Baily fails to quell negative rate fears
In FX, GBPUSD traded under 1.27 in early European trade after the downside breach of the 200-day EMA presented bears with an obvious momentum play. Yesterday’s move under the 1.2760 level has opened up the path to further losses and today the pair is trading through the 100-day line and testing the 38.,2% retracement at 1.2690.
Whilst Andrew Bailey attempted some push back on negative rates, saying they are not imminent, the takeaway from his comments was that this unorthodox and dangerous tool is very much being actively considered by the bank’s Monetary Policy Committee.
Chart: GBPUSD downside exposed
The USD continues to find bid, which is weighing on gold. DXY extended its push out of the channel, forcing gold to trade under $1,900 and test the 50% retracement around $1875, corresponding with the horizontal support of the descending triangle formed by the August lows. Silver has a bearish bias after breaching the August low.
Chart: Dollar continues breakout
Chart: Gold tests 50% retracement
Chart: Silver breaks August lows
La settimana che ci aspetta: Il Battery Day di Tesla susciterà l’interesse degli investitori
Martedì Tesla terrà il tanto atteso e tanto pubblicizzato Battery Day, con gli investitori in attesa della possibile rivelazione di una nuova tecnologia rivoluzionaria. Nel frattempo, il flusso dei dati economici proseguirà con i flash PMI relativi all’Eurozona, con la decisione sui tassi di interesse della Reserve of Bank della Nuova Zelanda e con il rapporto settimanale sull’occupazione negli Stati Uniti.
Nei prossimi giorni, il presidente della FED Jay Powell e il governatore della Banca d’Inghilterra Andrew Bailey dovrebbero rilasciare delle dichiarazioni dopo gli incontri del Federal Open Market Committee del Monetary Policy Committee della scorsa settimana.
Il Battery Day di Tesla
L’assemblea annuale 2020 degli azionisti di Tesla si terrà martedì 22 settembre alle 13:30 Pacific Time. Subito dopo questo appuntamento, Tesla terrà l’evento chiamato Battery Day, che ha generato una notevole quantità di speculazioni azionarie per ciò che il CEO Elon Musk potrebbe rivelare.
Potrai trovare la nostra guida completa all’evento cliccando qui.
Come sta andando la ripresa economica?
La ripresa economica globale sta perdendo slancio? Sebbene la ripresa immediatamente dopo i vari lockdown sia stata relativamente facile, sarà molto più complicato ritornare ai livelli del 2019. I guadagni marginali stanno diventando più difficili da ottenere, e alcuni indicatori economici ad alta frequenza stanno iniziando a stabilizzarsi. Ad esempio, i PMI dell’Eurozona hanno iniziato ad indebolirsi.
L’ultimo ciclo di indagini flash su produzione e servizi nell’Eurozona, nel Regno Unito e negli Stati Uniti è previsto per mercoledì. Nel frattempo, giovedì gli operatori osserveranno con attenzione le cifre settimanali relative alle richieste di sussidio di disoccupazione negli Stati Uniti, mentre venerdì gli ordini di beni durevoli statunitensi offriranno un utile indicatore in grado di anticipare la domanda delle imprese.
Come stanno rispondendo le banche centrali?
La settimana scorsa la Federal Reserve e la Banca d’Inghilterra hanno rivelato di essere pronte a fare di più come richiesto, e che i tassi di interesse dovrebbero rimanere bassi per molto tempo. Questa settimana la Reserve Bank della Nuova Zelanda entrerà in azione dopo che il paese ha registrato la peggiore recessione degli ultimi decenni.
L’economia del paese si è contratta del 12,2% tra aprile e giugno, registrando il calo più netto dall’inizio dell’attuale sistema di misurazione nel 1987, poiché le rigide misure di lockdown hanno paralizzato le attività.
La Reserve Bank della Nuova Zelanda ha esaminato i tassi negativi con il vicegovernatore Christian Hawkesby che il mese scorso ha affermato che la banca centrale sta “preparando le basi” per ulteriori strumenti relativi alla politica monetaria, tra i quali tassi negativi. Il cambio di passo avverrà adesso, oppure verranno effettuate altre valutazioni e l’economia si riprenderà grazie al numero molto basso di casi?
In evidenza su XRay questa settimana
Leggi il programma completo dell’analisi e formazione del mercato finanziario.
|15.00 UTC||21-Sep||Tesla Battery Day Preview|
|17.00 UTC||21-Sep||Blonde Markets|
|17.00 UTC||22-Sep||Webinar: Identify Trends and Choose Technical Indicators|
|14.45 UTC||24-Sep||Master the Markets|
|17.00 UTC||24-Sep||Election2020 Weekly|
Eventi economici principali
Presta attenzione agli eventi più importanti sul calendario economico di questa settimana. Un calendario completo degli eventi economici e aziendali è disponibile sulla piattaforma.
|22-Sep||Kingfisher – Half-Year Results|
|14.00 UTC||22-Sep||Eurozone Consumer Confidence|
|02.00 UTC||23-Sep||Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision|
|07.15 – 08.00 UTC||23-Sep||Eurozone Flash Services / Manufacturing PMIs|
|Pre-Market||23-Sep||General Mills – Q1 2021|
|08.30 UTC||23-Sep||UK Flash Services / Manufacturing PMIs|
|14.30 UTC||23-Sep||US EIA Crude Oil Inventories|
|23.50 UTC||23-Sep||Bank of Japan Meeting Minutes|
|08.00 UTC||24-Sep||German Ifo Business Climate|
|Pre-Market||24-Sep||Accenture – Q4 2020|
|12.30 UTC||24-Sep||US Weekly Jobless Claims|
|14.30 UTC||24-Sep||US EIA Natural Gas Storage|
|After-Market||24-Sep||Costco Wholesale Corp – Q4 2020|
|11.00 UTC||25-Sep||Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin|
|12.30 UTC||25-Sep||US Durable Goods Orders|
Tesla Battery Day primer: Can Musk deliver as TSLA rallies on event hype?
Tesla Battery Day primer
- Battery Day event scheduled for Sep 22nd
- Signs of speculative buying ahead of event
- Elon Musk hints at more energy dense batteries
Investors are charged up with excitement ahead of Tesla’s Battery Day event. Shares have rallied about 25% in the last week after the stock tapped on the 50-day simple moving average following some heavy selling in the middle of the Nasdaq’s early September pullback.
This of course followed disappointment at missing out on S&P 500 inclusion, and some very aggressive bid that took place in and around the stock split. So is Battery Day all hype, or is there something to it?
Tesla’s 2020 annual meeting of stockholders will be held on Tuesday, September 22, 2020, at 13:30 Pacific Time. Immediately after this meeting, Tesla will hold the Battery Day event.
CEO Elon Musk, in his usual caution, said in January that the event will ‘blow your mind’. Recently he toned it down a bit, teasing ‘many exciting things’. Whilst we should always take his pronouncements on Twitter with a pinch of salt, clearly there is a high degree of expectation and speculation – and speculative buying of TSLA stock – taking place in the run-up to the event.
To deliver on its EV promise, Tesla needs to own the battery space. Without this, it’s not so different to an OEM. Musk commented on this at Tesla’s Q4 2019 earnings call in January, explaining that in order to ramp up Model Y production, introduce the Cybertruck and launch the Semi electric truck, a lot more batteries would be needed.
“So, the thing we’re going to be really focused on is increasing battery production capacity because that’s very fundamental because if you don’t improve battery production capacity, then you end up just shifting unit volume from one product to another and you haven’t actually produced more electric vehicles,” Musk said.
And whilst Tesla has a lead in the powertrain stakes, traditional players may catch up. “It’s worth noting that the Model S has like a 100 kWh pack, the [Porsche] Taycan has like a 95 kWh pack. The Model S is steadily approaching 400 miles of range. The Taycan has 200 miles of range. So we must be using that energy pretty efficiently, and the powertrain is a big part of that,” Musk added in January.
Whilst battery production is one thing, making the batteries more efficient is quite something else. Tesla’s acquisition of Maxwell, an ultra-capacitor manufacturer and battery technology business based in San Diego, is a considerable factor.
What to expect from Tesla’s Battery Day
My expectation is that Musk is about to announce if not a leap then a progression in battery technology that brings EV costs down to, or close to, traditional automobiles. It would be a surprise if Tesla were not able to say it has made further progress on batteries that are more energy dense and have a longer life.
We note for example, that on August 24th this year Musk said battery cells of 400 Watt hours per kilogram (Wh/kg) with a high cycle would be possible in volume within 3 to 4 years, way beyond the current 260 Wh/kg in the Model 3, which could indicate knowledge of some improvement coming in the Tesla batteries.
There has also been speculation that Tesla may unveil “silicon nanowire anode” technology that can greatly increase battery density and cell life. All of this remains speculation, of course.
If Tesla can both lower costs and increase battery energy density and life, it would be a significant step forward for the company and further cement its lead in the EV space. However, given the recent rampant speculation on the stock and Musk’s capacity to somewhat overstate his case, there is a considerable risk of a buy-the-rumour, sell-the-fact trade.
Tesla Stock Signals
Whilst client flows remain positive (87% bullish), analysts remain downbeat – the average price target of $300 vs the current $450 for the stock implies a 34% downside. We also note that hedge funds have been decreasing their holdings.
Baillie Gifford, one of the top shareholders, recently reduced its stake as the holding approached fund limits, but also because of fears that valuations had just got silly. Our insider signals tool also delivers a sell signal on the stock.
Pound at 6-week low, European stocks stabilise but risk sentiment fragile
Tech stocks bled heavily again for a third straight day as trading resumed on Wall Street following the Labor Day weekend. Tesla slumped a whopping 21% to notch its worst day ever. The other major tech giants also dropped heavily as the Nasdaq fell 4% and entered correction territory – down 10% from its recent peak.
Whilst this began as more of a technical correction within tech following the astonishing ramp in August than a broad risk-off move, it is nonetheless bleeding into the broader market and dragged down the majority of stocks. US benchmark yields have retreated and oil prices have rolled over.
SPX not far behind after Nasdaq enters correction territory
There was some rotation going on – Disney, Nike, McDonald’s, Ford and GM rose – but the S&P 500 still declined almost 3% and is not so far off correction territory itself. On the whole there is a sense that this selloff represents that sentiment has become too exuberant and needed to correct.
We may expect the US market now to chop in W-pattern over the coming months and follow the path taken by European equities since June with the loss of momentum in the economic recovery and US election risks likely to become more visible in equity markets.
Asian equities fell with the weak US handover. European stocks opened a little bit higher in early trade but risk sentiment appears very fragile. The FTSE 100 is enjoying the pound’s distress with heavyweight dollar-earners like BP, Shell, Unilever and British American Tobacco among the best risers.
In dollar terms the market is flat. The index got a confidence boost as Barclays raised their call on UK equities to ‘market-weight’ from ‘underweight’.
Increase in coronavirus cases weighs on recovery outlook
Nevertheless, investors are becoming worried again about rising Covid cases across many developed markets which threaten the trajectory of the recovery and may well weigh on demand in a number of sectors.
The evidence is evident in a couple of markets. Oil prices have rolled over with WTI dropping under $37 to hit its weakest since the middle of June. Another tell that this tech-led selloff is more than just a simple technical correction are bond yields.
US 10-year Treasury yields logged their biggest drop in a month, sliding from 0.72% Friday to 0.682%. Despite the move in yields gold prices remain resolutely stuck to the $1930 anchor having tested $1906 and the 50-day SMA yesterday.
There is also some negative headlines around work on a vaccine which may weigh on risk a touch, or at least provide algos with a sell signal. AstraZeneca shares fell after it was forced to pause clinical trials of its Covid-19 vaccine candidate after a participant in the study was taken ill.
Such are the problems with pinning hopes on a vaccine for a return to normal to be possible. The worry is that while we have all kind of assumed that one company will come up with vaccine later this year, it’s not going to be plain sailing.
Tesla tumbles after S&P 500 snub
Tesla shares got well and truly smoked after it was not added to the S&P 500, to some surprise. Tesla stock hadn’t traded below its 50 day average price since April 13 and closed the day at this level at $330 – this level needs to hold or we could see further declines for the stock.
The market was surprised by Tesla not being included in the index. At the time, we talked a lot about how possible inclusion in the S&P 500 was a big driver of the stock’s rally earlier in the year and therefore being snubbed will force some funds to rethink whether they need to hold such a high beta stock if it’s not part of the index.
Pound sinks on Brexit worries, strong dollar
In FX markets, sterling is finding the going very tough, sinking to a 6-week low with the dollar catching a bid and Brexit risks weighing. DXY has advanced to clear 93.50 and test the top of the descending wedge, while EURUSD dropped further under 1.18 ahead of the ECB meeting which might be a lot more dovish than the market thinks.
This is not a pure dollar move by any means – the pound was also at its weakest since the end of July against the euro, too. For cable this has meant the build-up of downside pressure has blown out the stops at 1.30 and GBPUSD is running south with not a lot of support until 1.28.
Brexit risks are a major factor – the UK government admitted it will break international law in order to fix the withdrawal agreement should there be no deal by October 15th. Talks continue today between the UK and the EU and there are clear headline risks as traders see a higher chance of no deal emerging.
However, we should caution that a deal will likely emerge at the last moment after considerable brinkmanship from both sides that makes it seem as though a deal is impossible. Nevertheless, with still 5 weeks to go before the deadline imposed by the British government, there may be a very rough ride ahead for the pound.
Chart: Stops are out as GBPUSD trades below 50-day SMA
Chart: Having pushed clear of the 21-day SMA the dollar tests top of the descending wedge, 50-day SMA above
FTSE lags as dollar continues to drop
Back to school: the unruly mob are back. But that is enough about MPs going back to work – children start the autumn term this week and the furlough scheme starts to unwind with the government reducing its contribution to employees’ wages to 70% in September.
Furlough forever is simply not an option – zombie staff, zombie businesses. But it means unemployment is surely set to rise – and consumer confidence always follows. The chancellor is floating a tax raid – better to monetize the debt surely?
Stocks soft after strong August
Stocks were a tad weaker on Monday, but August was a great month. The MSCI World index rose 6.6% and the S&P rallied over 7% to record their best August since 1986. The Nasdaq rose 10%. August is usually a poor month for stocks.
Tuesday morning saw a firm bounce for the major European bourses, though the FTSE 100 lagged as it played catchup following the bank holiday. A stronger sterling is also dragging on the big dollar earners. AstraZeneca has started large-scale human trials of its coronavirus candidate vaccine in the US.
The Federal Reserve has put a floor under markets and a ceiling on rates, delivering conditions where stocks can only float higher. We call this TINA – There Is No Alternative. It’s not sustainable of course, but it won’t stop the Fed and other central banks continuing to inflate the bubble. The Fed’s policy shift on inflation has marked a important change for the central bank and it may be followed by the ECB and others.
Vix futures – the so-called ‘fear gauge’ are telling another story. These have started to grind higher despite stocks rallying, which raises a warning about the future path of the market. As previously mentioned, volatility should rise as the election approaches and the races proves far tighter than it currently looks. In summary, the options market is sending a signal that the stock market is not.
Strong China manufacturing PMI lifts sentiment, despite soft readings from France, Spain
Sentiment this morning is helped by data showing Chinese factory activity rose at the fastest pace since 2011. French and Spanish manufacturing PMIs softened, dropping under 50 to signal contraction, while Italy’s was a little better than expected at 53.1.
Some of the moves in US shares are striking. Apple rose over 3% to $129 after splitting, whilst Tesla shares rocketed 13% on its busiest day ever. Stock splits shouldn’t make a difference, except this time they have. Tesla is up 74% for the month.
Zoom races higher after smashing earnings forecasts
Zoom rose almost 23% in after-hours trade after it reported a 355% rise in revenues to $663.5m for the July quarter, smashing forecasts for around $500m. Zoom has proved to be a Covid winner of epic proportions – but shouldn’t we all be going back to the office by now? The UK significantly lags Europe and others in ‘getting back to work’ statistics – this has a huge implication for productivity and for the wider economy.
The dollar continues to soften and trying to guess the bottom is akin to catching a falling knife. The dollar index sank to fresh two-year lows in the wake of the Fed’s inflation shift. Perennial dollar bulls have been caught off guard with the unwind, however the Fed’s recent shift on inflation targeting only underlines that bears called this early.
More inflation and a central bank prepared to let it happen should reduce the purchasing power of the dollar and therefore it ought to weaken. However, with the buck usually a safe harbour, it shouldn’t soften too much more.
The pound was up, with GBPUSD pressing on the post-election euphoria high of last December a little above 1.34. There are Brexit risks ahead – talks recommence next week – but for the moment the major driver of this is the dollar’s weakness. Gold futures rose to $2,000/oz as the weaker dollar lifted commodity markets and US real rates – 10-year TIPS – have sunk again as inflation expectations rise.
La settimana che ci aspetta: Frazionamento azionario di AAPL & TSLA, rimpasto del Dow Jones, focus sui nonfarm payrolls americani
Cosa succederà ad Apple e a Tesla una volta che i loro frazionamenti azionari saranno in vigore? Come reagirà il nuovo Dow Jones alle ultime novità del mercato? Riusciranno le buste paga del settore non agricolo a confermare il trend in forte crescita?
I frazionamenti di Apple e Tesla
Questa settimana Apple e Tesla inizieranno ad essere scambiate con i nuovi prezzi dopo aver completato i loro recenti frazionamenti azionari. AAPL calerà di un quarto, TSLA di un quinto. Entrambe le azioni hanno visto dei forti apprezzamenti dopo l’annuncio dei frazionamenti, con Apple che è cresciuta sopra quota 500 USD per azione la settimana scorsa, e Tesla che continua a salire fino ad aver superato di recente il valore di 2000 USD.
Spesso le azioni calano di valore dopo un frazionamento perché chi le possiede vende le azioni in eccesso per realizzare qualche profitto dopo un apprezzamento del valore, ma ciò potrebbe essere solo una situazione temporanea. Apple presenterà presto la sua ultima gamma di iPhone, compresi i modelli 5G di cui si è parlato a lungo. L’atteso evento Battery Day di Tesla, previsto per il 22 settembre, potrebbe essere la scena dell’annuncio dell’azienda di nuove innovazioni per migliorare la gamma e le prestazioni delle sue auto.
Potrai saperne di più sui frazionamenti azionari e su come influiscono gli scambi cliccando qui.
Il nuovo look del Dow Jones Industrial Average
A seguito del frazionamento azionario di Apple, il Dow Jones Industrial Average sarà un’entità diversa a partire da questa settimana. Il Dow Jones è un indice ponderato sul prezzo, a differenza dello S&P 500 che è basato sulla capitalizzazione di mercato, perciò il calo del prezzo pari al 75% del valore azionario di Apple ha determinato parecchi cambiamenti.
Per prima cosa, Apple non avrà più l’importanza che aveva prima all’interno dell’indice, e passerà dal primo a circa il diciassettesimo posto. Ciò significa che la volatilità dell’azione avrà un impatto inferiore sul Dow Jones rispetto al passato. United Health diventerà l’azione più importante nell’indice, e di conseguenza avrà più importanza.
Inoltre, molte azioni sono state escluse dall’indice per far posto a nuove al fine di mantenere la sua composizione all’incirca con un quarto di azioni del settore tecnologico. Puoi leggere altre informazioni relative ai cambiamenti qui.
Gli utili di Zoom Video Communications
Sin dall’inizio della pandemia Zoom è diventato uno strumento fondamentale per tutte le aziende del mondo. Zoom ha inoltre visto un rapido aumento nell’utilizzo per motivi personali, con i propri utenti che l’hanno sfruttato per fare qualsiasi cosa, dagli appuntamenti galanti alle trasmissioni in streaming di matrimoni e persino di funerali. Il numero degli utilizzatori è aumentato del 354% su base annua nel primo trimestre, con entrate in crescita del 169%.
Il risultato è stato che gli investitori hanno preso d’assalto il titolo, facendo salire ZM del 330% fino a questo punto dell’anno.
Stavolta gli analisti prevedono un fatturato di quasi 500 milioni di USD, con utili per azione pari a 0,45 USD, il che equivarrebbe a una crescita annua del 462,5%.
La Reserve Bank of Australia taglierà il tasso di interesse di riferimento?
Questa settimana si riunirà la Reserve Bank of Australia. Il mese scorso i responsabili politici hanno aumentato il Quantitative Easing e hanno riconosciuto che la decisione di attuare un blocco completo nello stato di Victoria, il secondo più grande per popolazione e produzione, avrebbe determinato un forte contraccolpo economico, ma hanno lasciato invariati i tassi di interesse.
I future sui tassi di cassa ASX mostrano che una maggioranza risicata dei partecipanti al mercato si aspetta che questa volta la Reserve Bank of Australia riduca i tassi allo 0%. Tuttavia, il governatore Philip Lowe ha già ventilato l’idea di un taglio dei tassi allo 0,1% qualora ulteriori correzioni si rendessero necessarie, perciò anche se i responsabili delle politiche vedessero il bisogno di un ulteriore easing, potrebbero decidere di non arrivare fino ad un taglio completo dei tassi.
Rapporto sui nonfarm payroll statunitensi
Nella giornata di venerdì i dati sui nonfarm payroll statunitensi saranno ovviamente al centro dell’attenzione. Ancora una volta, la crescita dei posti di lavoro ha superato le previsioni del mese scorso, anche se il tasso di recupero si è fermato a 1.763 milioni dal momento che il rialzo dei casi di coronavirus ha rallentato le assunzioni.
I recenti dati sulle richieste di sussidio di disoccupazione hanno continuato a mostrare un calo del numero delle richieste, sia di quelle nuove che dei rinnovi: il numero di persone che per la prima volta hanno fatto ricorso all’assicurazione per disoccupati è sceso al di sotto di 1 milione per la prima volta dall’inizio della pandemia nella settimana conclusasi l’8 agosto. La media mensile delle richieste è in costante calo da diverse settimane, così come il numero richieste di rinnovo.
In evidenza su XRay questa settimana
Leggi il programma completo dell’analisi e formazione del mercato finanziario.
|07.15 UTC||Daily||European Morning Call|
|12.00 UTC||31-Aug||Master the Markets|
|From 15.30 UTC||1-Sep||Weekly Gold, Silver, and Oil Forecasts|
|17.00 UTC||3-Sep||Election2020 Weekly|
Eventi economici principali
Presta attenzione agli eventi più importanti sul calendario economico di questa settimana:
|12.00 UTC||31-Aug||German Preliminary CPI|
|After-Market||31-Aug||Zoom Video Communications – Q2 2021|
|00.45 UTC||01-Sep||China Caixin Manufacturing PMI|
|4.30 UTC||01-Sep||RBA Official Cash Rate Decision|
|7.15 – 8.00 UTC||01-Sep||Finalised Eurozone Manufacturing PMIS|
|8.30 UTC||01-Sep||Finalised UK Manufacturing PMI|
|10.00 UTC||01-Sep||Eurozone Flash CPI|
|14.00 UTC||01-Sep||US ISM Manufacturing PMI|
|1.30 UTC||02-Sep||Australia Quarterly GDP|
|14.30 UTC||02-Sep||US EIA Crude Oil Inventories|
|1.30 UTC||03-Sep||Australia Trade Balance|
|00.45 UTC||03-Sep||China Caixin Services PMI|
|7.15 – 8.00 UTC||03-Sep||Finalised Eurozone Services PMIs|
|8.30 UTC||03-Sep||Finalised UK Services PMI|
|12.30 UTC||03-Sep||US Jobless Claims|
|14.00 UTC||03-Sep||US ISM Nonmanufacturing PMI|
|14.30 UTC||03-Sep||US EIA Natural Gas Storage|
|1.30 UTC||04-Sep||Australia Retail Sales|
|6.00 UTC||04-Sep||German Factory Orders|
|12.30 UTC||04-Sep||US Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate|
Apple and Tesla announce stock splits – here’s what you need to know
Apple and Tesla have both announced that they will split their stocks at the end of this month. Apple shareholders will be granted three additional shares for each one they hold, while Tesla shareholders will receive another four shares for each one they hold.
The price of each share will be divided by the size of the split to reflect the increased supply: AAPL will start trading at 0.25 times the pre-split price, while Tesla stock will trade at 0.2 times the pre-split price.
But why are Apple and Tesla splitting their stocks, and how will this affect your trades?
Why are Apple and Tesla splitting their stocks?
Apple was the first to announce its stock split earlier this month, followed a few days later by Tesla. Both shares have rallied hard since the announcements although a split shouldn’t theoretically affect their value.
Stock splits usually happen for two reasons: to increase liquidity and to make the stock more attractive to retail investors.
An asset’s liquidity refers to how easily it can be bought and sold without impacting its price. Putting more shares into circulation often increases its trading volume, which can narrow the spread between bid and ask prices. This could make it easier for buyers and sellers to get a fair price for the shares they want or have.
Apple stock currently trades for around $430 per share, while Tesla has surged towards $2,000 recently. The high valuation could be putting investors off. Shares are often bought and sold in standardised blocks – a “board lot” of 100 shares would cost an investor $43,000. If the stock were split today, 100 shares would cost $10,750.
However, modern ways of trading shares (such as leveraged products like Contracts for Difference) have made it more affordable to trade even expensive stocks, so the benefit isn’t as obvious as it used to be
Regardless of the why the decision was made, investors have taken it as a sign of confidence in the stock – Apple and Tesla wouldn’t want to lower their share price if the companies felt that there wasn’t the potential for further appreciation.
How will the stock splits affect my trades?
On August 31st Apple stock will start trading at a quarter of the pre-split price, and Tesla will begin trading at a fifth of the pre-split price.
Any existing positions on AAPL CFDs will be closed at the original opening price and new positions opened at the new split-adjusted price but for four times more units. The same will happen with positions on TSLA CFDs, but with five times more units.
See below for an example – note that the prices given are based upon the market value as of August 20th and are for indicative purposes only.
- Before the split you have 100 units of Apple CFDs, each valued at $462 for a total value of $46,200.
- When the stock is split your position for 100 units will be closed at the original opening price (so P&L will display as zero) and a new position will be opened that is four times larger. In this instance your holdings would now be for 400 units of Apple CFDs.
- The price of each unit will be worth a quarter of the pre-split price, meaning in this example each unit is valued at $115.50 for a total for $46,200 – exactly as before.
If you didn’t already have a position in Apple and wanted to trade it, or want to expand an existing position, you would be able to buy the same quantity of units for a lower price, or more units for the same cost as before.
In effect, the size of your AAPL and TSLA positions will be multiplied by the same quantity as the stock prices are divided by, meaning the value of your holdings will not change.
How the Apple split will impact the Dow
Anyone trading the Dow will also need to pay attention to the Apple stock split.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index, so when Apple’s stock price drops thanks to the split the company will no longer be the index’s biggest constituent (that will be UnitedHealth).
Moves in Apple stock will therefore have less of an influence on the Dow than they currently do.
Will other companies copy Apple and Tesla?
Investors are now looking to other tech giants to see whether they decide to follow suit. Amazon and Alphabet will be of particular interest – Amazon’s stock price is over $3,100, while Alphabet is trading near $1,500 at the time of writing.
A lower stock price for Apple would make the stock more attractive, and Amazon and Alphabet may want to ensure they aren’t pricing potential investors out of the market. However, as the huge cost of an individual share in either of them proves, neither Amazon nor Alphabet has felt the need to resist high prices in the past.
Stocks firm, gold chased higher, Tesla earnings beat
European stocks were firmer after US stocks rallied yesterday to finish at the best level in months, whilst Asia was mixed. The S&P 500 closed at 3,276, its best finish since February as decent corporate earnings supported the bulls who continue to shrug off the rising Covid cases as well as mounting US-China tensions. The broad index also managed to close at the high of the previous session, having previously closed 20 pts short of this level.
There are some concerns with US-China tensions after the closure of the consulate in Houston, with China retaliating by closing the US consulate in Chengdu. But this kind of tit-for-tat is nothing new – we have been dealing with a trade war for years and I think the market is fully expecting friction to increase, particularly as the US presidential election looms and domestic strife makes it all too convenient for the White House to bash China. UK-China tensions are something a little fresher and have led to Chinese authorities taking the English Premier League off air.
Tesla posted its first full year of GAAP profitability, meaning it can now be considered for inclusion in the S&P 500. Excluding special items, EPS came in at $2.18 on revenues of $6bn. Whilst the beat on deliveries reported earlier by the company indicated a strong quarter, this was better than most had forecast. Whilst the stock is still exceedingly rich based on the fundamentals, it’s one with such a backing that it just doesn’t seem to matter. In some ways it’s a talisman for the whole stock market – old fashioned ideas like valuation and discounted free cash flow models simply don’t matter when you have such an incredible amount of liquidity. It’s also a bet on the future of the automotive industry – which carmaker is going to be around in 50 years?
Microsoft shares fell after hours following its quarterly earnings revealed a slowing in cloud growth, with revenues from the Azure business down from 59% to 47%, although overall the company beat on both the top and bottom lines. XBox revenues soared as gamers found ways to pass the time in lockdown. Likewise Americans stocking up on ice cream and other goodies lifted Unilever sales but emerging markets -without the help of an Ocado to bring consumers lockdown treats – were tougher.
On the data front, Germany’s Gfk consumer confidence survey was better than expected, printing –0.3 vs the –4.6 expected. South Korea’s economy is in recession after the worst slump 57 years.
Today the focus is on the US weekly unemployment numbers, with initial jobless claims forecast to hold steady at 1.3m. Initial jobless claims last week of 1.3m were almost unchanged from the prior week. As noted after the release of the numbers last Thursday, the improving trend in initial jobless claims has all but halted, which may reflect the spike in coronavirus cases that has coincided with renewed lockdown measures in a number of economically important states such as Texas and California. There are also big worries that temporary layoffs are turning into permanent firings.
Continuing claims fell to 17.3m vs the 18m in the prior week, which was a tad better than the 17.6m expected. The total number of people claiming benefits in all programmes for the week ending June 27th fell to 32m a decrease of 430k from the previous week.
On the Covid front, US deaths exceeded 1,000 for the second day, whilst California – the most populous and economically important state – saw more than 12k cases on Wednesday, its largest single-day rise.
In FX, the dollar remains on the backfoot with major peers cementing gains. EURUSD has cleared the January 2019 peak at 1.1570 and looking for a further extension towards the next big Fibonacci level at 1.1760 and the September 2018 swing highs at 1.18. The outlook for the euro is more bullish – on a technical note the clearance of 1.15 is a big hurdle out of the way, whilst the agreement on the EU pandemic fund is fundamentally vital to pushing the euro higher. Longer term is could have very far-reaching repercussions for bond investors, too. GBPUSD was trading above 1.27 and the 200-day moving average and testing the descending trend line that forced the pullback on Tuesday – clearance of these two hurdles opens up a path to 1.30 albeit the fundamental bullish thesis on sterling is far cloudier.
Oil nudged up despite the rise in US crude inventories. WTI (Aug) pressed up above $42 after the EIA reported a crude oil inventory build of 4.9m barrels in the week to July 17th, vs the 2m barrel draw expected, albeit the API print had already flagged a likely increase in stockpiles. Stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub rose 1.375m vs last week’s build of almost 1m.
Gold continues to march higher as real rates hit all-time lows with 10yr TIPS finishing at –0.88%. Gold pressed up to $1,876 this morning to mark a new 9-year peak. The momentum that is chasing this trade should easily enable bulls to find the $1921 all-time high last achieved in 2011 – you get the feeling there is a lot of appetite to take out this level, but expect some considerable resistance and another pullback to $1800 may be required first. After clearing the all-time high there is a chance of a move to $2k, but we should question whether the support from declining real rates will continue to act as a driver of gold prices without a significant inflationary follow-through. Nevertheless, it’s clear that the combination of a very uncertain macro backdrop, fresh geopolitical risk, the threat of inflation stemming from the massive injection of both monetary and fiscal stimulus make gold a clear-cut Covid winner.
La settimana che ci aspetta: Occhi puntati sulle speranze per un vaccino e sui guadagni di Tesla
In arrivo questa settimana – Tesla riuscirà a fare abbastanza per giustificare le sue imponenti valutazioni con il rilascio degli utili del secondo trimestre?
I guadagni di Tesla nel secondo trimestre
Tesla (TSLA) ha avuto performance eccezionali nel 2020, con un aumento del 270% da inizio anno. Negli ultimi 12 mesi, il valore delle sue azioni è cresciuto di oltre il 500% in quello che può essere descritto solo come uno dei più sorprendenti casi di successo nella storia. In questo periodo l’indice S&P 500 ha guadagnato circa il 7%. Le valutazioni si sprecano e le azioni vengono scambiate nel comparto tecnologico, e qualcuno potrebbe dire a buon motivo, ma l’interesse a breve termine sulle azioni (la percentuale di azioni date in prestito ai trader che scommettono sulla caduta dei prezzi del titolo) rimane relativamente alto al 7,5%.
Le azioni di Tesla sono cresciute vertiginosamente nell’ultimo anno
Ma questa settimana siamo ritornati all’inizio, con Tesla che riferisce i risultati finanziari del secondo trimestre 2020. Il 22 luglio è probabile che la società registri il quarto profitto trimestrale consecutivo, il che le consentirebbe di entrare nell’indice S&P 500 e potrebbe inoltre spiegare il recente rialzo, dovuto al fatto che i fondi di investimento avevano deciso di acquistarne una parte.
Il titolo è salito ai massimi storici vicino a 1.800 USD dopo che la società ha dichiarato di aver consegnato 90.650 veicoli nel secondo trimestre, ben oltre ciò che l’azienda aveva indicato, e oltre l’aspettativa di TheStreet di 83.000 veicoli. La società ha aumentato con successo la produzione nel suo sito di Fremont e lo stabilimento di Shanghai è tornato in attività dopo essere stato costretto a chiudere nel primo trimestre a causa del Covid. Le vendite in Cina stanno risalendo, con quasi 12.000 Tesla Model 3S vendute a maggio. Il titolo ha anche visto un rialzo dopo che Wedbush Securities ha aumentato il suo obiettivo di prezzo sul titolo a 1.250 USD da 1.000 USD, mentre lo scenario rialzista ha ottenuto un PT di 2.000 USD.
Gli analisti restano divisi su Tesla…
…ma gli hedge fund hanno aumentato le loro partecipazioni
Questa settimana altri profitti da tenere d’occhio arriveranno da Microsoft, Coca-Cola e Unilever.
I risultati del vaccino di AstraZeneca e dell’Università di Oxford
Le speranze per lo sviluppo di un vaccino continuano a sostenere il sentiment del mercato azionario nonostante i segnali di una ripresa più lenta rispetto al rimbalzo a forma di V che tutti auspicavano. Molte speranze sono riposte nel vaccino sperimentale in corso di sviluppo da parte di AstraZeneca e dell’Università di Oxford – i risultati degli studi clinici della prima fase sono previsti per lunedì e potrebbero dare indicare l’andamento per il resto della settimana sui mercati azionari.
Sarà opportuno verificare anche la reazione delle azioni di AstraZeneca, che quest’anno si sono fortemente rafforzate, facendolo diventare il maggiore titolo dell’indice FTSE 100.
Dati economici da osservare
Come sempre giovedì, prevediamo un importante aggiornamento dagli Stati Uniti che contribuirà a mostrare il ritmo della riapertura e della ripresa economica attraverso il filtro delle richieste settimanali di disoccupazione nuove e rinnovate.
Venerdì avremo i dati sulle vendite al dettaglio nel Regno Unito relativi al mese di giugno, che dovrebbero mostrare miglioramenti dopo un rimbalzo del 12% a maggio che ha fatto seguito al calo del 18% ad aprile al culmine del lockdown.
Venerdì verranno pubblicati anche gli ultimi flash del PMI per l’Eurozona, che un mese fa aveva mostrato un rialzo dignitoso. I PMI, che sono indici di diffusione, sono messi particolarmente a dura prova dalla velocità e dalla dimensione della contrazione economica. Quindi, anche se possono avere un’andatura a forma di V, ciò non significa necessariamente che il recupero sia anch’esso a forma di V. L’indice PMI chiede ai partecipanti al sondaggio se ritengono che le cose siano migliori o peggiori rispetto al mese precedente, quindi forniscono un’istantanea piuttosto imperfetta dell’attività economica in tempi di crisi. Un valore superiore a 50 ci dice solo che la situazione è migliore rispetto al mese precedente, dato che in questo momento non è difficile da superare.
In evidenza su XRay questa settimana
Leggi il programma completo dell’analisi e formazione del mercato finanziario.
|07.15 UTC||Daily||European Morning Call|
|17.00 UTC||20-Jul||Blonde Markets|
|From 15.30 UTC||21-Jul||Weekly Gold, Silver, and Oil Forecasts|
|14.45 UTC||23-Jul||Master the Markets with Andrew Barnett|
|17.00 UTC||23-Jul||Introduction to Currency Trading – Is it For Me?|
Top Earnings Reports this Week
Here are some of the biggest earnings reports scheduled for this week:
|After-Market||20-Jul||IBM – Q2|
|07.00 GMT||21-Jul||UBS – Q2|
|Pre-Market||21-Jul||Coca-Cola Co – Q2|
|Pre-Market||21-Jul||Philip Morris – Q2|
|Pre-Market||22-Jul||Biogen – Q2|
|After-Market||22-Jul||Tesla – Q2|
|After-Market||22-Jul||Microsoft – Q2|
|After-Market||22-Jul||Gilead Sciences – Q2|
|07.00 GMT||23-Jul||Unilever – Q2|
|Pre-Market||23-Jul||AT&T – Q2|
|Pre-Market||23-Jul||Twitter – Q2|
|After-Market||23-Jul||Intel – Q2|
|23-Jul||Southwest Airlines – Q2|
|Pre-Market||24-Jul||Verizon – Q2|
|Pre-Market||24-Jul||American Express – Q2|
Key Events this Week
Watch out for the biggest events on the economic calendar this week:
|01.30 GMT||21-Jul||RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes|
|02.30 GMT||21-Jul||RBA Governor Lowe Speech|
|12.30 GMT||21-Jul||Canada Retail Sales|
|00.30 GMT||22-Jul||Japan Flash Manufacturing PMI|
|01.30 GMT||22-Jul||Australia Retail Sales|
|12.30 GMT||22-Jul||Canada CPI|
|14.30 GMT||22-Jul||US EIA Crude Oil Inventories|
|06.00 GMT||23-Jul||German GfK Consumer Climate|
|12.30 GMT||23-Jul||US Weekly Jobless Claims|
|14.30 GMT||23-Jul||US EIA Natural Gas Storage|
|06.00 GMT||24-Jul||UK Retail Sales|
|07.15-08.00 GMT||24-Jul||Flash Eurozone Services, Manufacturing PMIs|
|08.30 GMT||24-Jul||Flash UK Services, Manufacturing PMIs|
|13.45 GMT||24-Jul||US Flash Manufacturing PMI|
US Election2020 fast update: Biden ramps clean energy plans
- Biden plans $2tn clean energy investment
- Clean energy stocks may prosper under Democrat clean sweep
- Potential risks?
Clean energy stocks were among yesterday’s best gainers as Joe Biden, presumptive US Democrat president, outlined a $2tn green energy and infrastructure spending plan. Traditional oil companies also rebounded, with Chevron and Exxon up over 3% and Schlumberger, EOG Resources and Halliburton both adding over 5% as Biden appeared to steer clear of any fracking bans.
Biden plans “irreversible path” to net-zero emissions
First the numbers – it’s more money, faster with a more ambitious target than in the primaries after – it has all the hallmarks of Bernie Sanders on it. The $2tn over 4 years exceeds the $1.7tn over ten imagined in Biden’s primary campaign.
Biden outlined plans to set the US on an “irreversible path” to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, with an ambitious goal to build a carbon pollution-free power sector by 2035. There is a clear break being made with the oil & gas sector implicit in this, but crucially we did not hear an aggressive take on fracking or proposals to restrict US shale.
The focus was on job creation in new industries, not on going after the oil & gas sector per se, albeit the proposals clearly imply a far more aggressive shift away from fossil fuels than a Trump administration would pursue. As much as it cemented the Democrats as the green party, this is an election pitch to voters in some key swing states who may have lost their jobs.
Meanwhile, the Democrat proposals would also involve upgrading millions of commercial and residential properties over 4 years to increase energy efficiency, with among other things the installation of solar panels, which is a potentially huge growth area (Sunrun, Solaredge, FirstSolar).
We also note a positive policy position on EV (Tesla, Nikola) with plans to invest in 500,000 electric vehicle charging stations. Biden’s goal is to combine going green with economic recovery: to Build Back Better. He is promising to create 1 million new jobs in the auto industry, domestic auto supply chains, and auto infrastructure, from parts to materials to electric vehicle charging stations, which will depend on the repurposing of the auto industry from ICE to EV.
How will oil and gas sector workers react in key states?
Whilst Biden is playing a strong hand here in tying jobs and economic recovery to the green economy, killing two albatrosses with one very large boulder, there are of course risks to this strategy, notably among the millions of workers in the oil & gas sector in states like Pennsylvania and Texas.
Biden boasts of creating more than 250k jobs “immediately to clean up local economies from the impacts of resource extraction”, but they may see Trump as a better guarantor of their jobs when it comes to the crunch.
Broadly the announcement appeared to be positive for the S&P 500 Energy sector, which rose 3.43%. Our Biden20 Blend clean energy constituents, selected as potential gainers from a Democrat clean sweep, notched broad gains, with some solar energy names taking off after Biden’s announcement.
|Company||Ticker||% daily move|
|Brookfield Asset Management Inc||BAM||+2.93%|
|Brookfield Renewable Partners||BEP||+3.92%|
|Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure||AY||-1.95%|
|Nextera Energy Partners||NEP||+2.95%|