I CFD sono strumenti complessi e presentano un alto rischio di perdere soldi rapidamente a causa della leva finanziaria. Nel 79% dei casi gli investitori retail perdono soldi operando sui CFD con questo gestore. Devi verificare se comprendi pienamente come funzionano i CFD e se puoi permetterti di correre il rischio elevato di perdere i tuoi soldi.
La settimana che ci aspetta: I verbali del FOMC e i nonfarm payroll dominano il calendario
Mentre l’indice PMI cinese sarà al centro dell’attenzione all’inizio della settimana, il calendario economico statunitense dominerà i giorni successivi, con l’ultimo ISM Manufacturing PMI, i verbali delle riunioni del FOMC e i nonfarm payroll di giugno.
L’indice PMI cinese
È il momento dei più recenti indici PMI cinesi: dal momento che si tratta dei primi dati PMI globali del mese, forniranno ai mercati una possibile tendenza su come stanno andando le cose.
Ora la ripresa della Cina potrebbe essere in pericolo a causa dei nuovi focolai di Covid-19, ma gli ultimi indici PMI daranno comunque un’indicazione su come potrebbero andare le altre nazioni, poiché anch’esse dopo aver combattuto il virus iniziano a concentrarsi maggiormente su come far ripartire le proprie economie.
Inflazione in Germania e nell’Eurozona
A maggio i prezzi al consumo sono diminuiti dello 0,1% in tutta la zona Euro, anche se questo dato non rappresenta certo uno shock. I dati sull’inflazione di questa settimana potrebbero mostrare ulteriori cali, cosa prevedibile dato l’enorme crollo della domanda, l’aumento della disoccupazione e gli incentivi che vengono emessi sul mercato Banca Centrale Europea. La scorsa settimana Fitch ha previsto che l’inflazione core dell’Eurozona rallenterà nei prossimi 18 mesi e che nel 2021 finirà sotto lo 0,5%.
Un periodo prolungato di deflazione sarà negativo per l’economia, ma si tratta di una situazione che a breve termine è attesa, perciò l’impatto sul mercato dei dati relativi all’Indice sui Prezzi al Consumo è stato in qualche modo attenuato.
Vendite al dettaglio in Germania
L’attività dei consumatori è fortemente rimbalzata negli Stati Uniti e nel Regno Unito da quando le restrizioni sono state allentate: riuscirà la Germania a seguire l’esempio? A maggio le vendite al dettaglio negli Stati Uniti sono aumentate del 17,7%, superando le aspettative di un aumento dell’8%, mentre le vendite nel Regno Unito sono aumentate del 12% rispetto alle previsioni del 5,7%.
In Germania le vendite al dettaglio sono scese del 5,3% ad aprile, ma il dato è di gran lunga migliore rispetto al tonfo del 12% previsto dagli analisti, con l’aumento delle vendite online che ha contribuito ad attenuare le proporzioni del crollo. Per maggio si prevede un aumento delle vendite del 2,5% quando i negozi fisici hanno iniziato a riaprire, ma come accaduto con i dati di Stati Uniti e Regno Unito potrebbero esserci dati ancora più confortanti.
Il Manufacturing Index dell’ISM
La produzione americana sta faticando a riprendersi dallo shock della pandemia. L’indice PMI di maggio dell’ISM ha registrato un rialzo dopo i dati più bassi da oltre un decennio di aprile, ma è rimasto di mezzo punto sotto le aspettative del mercato. Un rimbalzo più netto è previsto per giugno, ma l’indice PMI sul manifatturiero rilasciato da IHS Markit la scorsa settimana ha deluso le aspettative, rimanendo in contrazione, anche se i dati dell’Eurozona e del Regno Unito sono tornati in crescita.
I verbali dell’incontro del FOMC
Il FOMC ha inferto un duro colpo ai mercati a seguito del suo ultimo incontro, rilasciando proiezioni economiche peggiori del previsto che hanno del tutto fatto sparire l’idea che gli Stati Uniti avrebbero potuto vedere una ripresa a forma di V. I responsabili delle policy hanno osservato che i tassi di sarebbero rimasti vicini allo zero almeno fino al 2022, e che il tasso di acquisti di asset sarebbe aumentato nei prossimi mesi.
Il verbale dell’incontro fornirà maggiori dettagli, e i mercati saranno particolarmente interessati a qualsiasi annotazione relativa al controllo della curva dei rendimenti (YCC), che probabilmente sarà il prossimo strumento politico che la Fed implementerà per tenere a freno i tassi. Quando tale azione verrà intrapresa è ancora incerto, ma i verbali potrebbero fornire alcuni indizi.
Rapporto sui nonfarm payroll statunitensi
Venerdì sarà un giorno festivo, perché il 4 luglio, Giorno dell’Indipendenza degli Stati Uniti, quest’anno cade in sabato. Ciò significa che il rapporto sui nonfarm payroll di giugno uscirà giovedì.
I dati del mese scorso hanno lasciato tutti sbalorditi per l’aumento di 2,5 milioni di occupati rispetto alle previsioni di un calo di 8 milioni, segno che l’economia americana potrebbe riprendersi più velocemente di quanto si pensasse in precedenza.
Tuttavia, gli ultimi dati sulle richieste di sussidi di disoccupazione settimanali sono stati deludenti, anche se le cifre hanno continuato a diminuire, e il calo delle nuove richieste è stato meno significativo del previsto. Ciò indica che la ferita nel mercato del lavoro è più profonda? In caso di risposta affermativa, è necessario tenere a freno le aspettative che i nonfarm payroll possano continuare a fornire cifre così importanti?
In evidenza su XRay questa settimana
Leggi il programma completo dell’analisi e formazione del mercato finanziario.
|07.15 UTC||Daily||European Morning Call|
|From 15.30 UTC||30-Jun||Weekly Gold, Silver, and Oil Forecasts|
|17.00 UTC||01-Jul||Blonde Markets|
|19.00 UTC||01-Jul||Introduction to Currency Trading: Is it For Me?|
Eventi economici principali
Presta attenzione agli eventi più importanti sul calendario economico di questa settimana:
|12.00 UTC||29-Jun||German Preliminary Inflation|
|23.30 UTC||29-Jun||Japan Unemployment / Industrial Production|
|After-Market||29-Jun||Micron Technology – Q3 2020|
|01.00 UTC||30-Jun||China Manufacturing, Non-Manufacturing PMIs|
|06.00 UTC||30-Jun||UK Finalised Quarterly GDP|
|30-Jun||easyJet – Q2 2020|
|09.00 UTC||30-Jun||Eurozone Flash CPI|
|12.30 UTC||30-Jun||Canada Monthly GDP|
|14.00 UTC||30-Jun||US CB Consumer Confidence|
|After-Market||30-Jun||FedEx Corp – Q4 2020|
|01.45 UTC||01-Jul||Caixin Manufacturing PMI|
|06.00 UTC||01-Jul||Germany Retail Sales|
|Pre-Market||01-Jul||General Mills – Q4 2020|
|Pre-Market||01-Jul||Constellation Brands – Q1 2021|
|12.15 UTC||01-Jul||US ADP Nonfarm Payrolls Report|
|14.00 UTC||01-Jul||ISM Manufacturing PMI|
|14.30 UTC||01-Jul||US EIA Crude Oil Inventories|
|18.00 UTC||01-Jul||FOMC Meeting Minutes|
|01.30 UTC||02-Jul||Australia Trade Balance|
|12.30 UTC||02-Jul||US Nonfarm Payrolls (Friday is US Bank Holiday)|
|01.30 UTC||03-Jul||Australia Retail Sales|
|All Day||03-Jul||US Bank Holiday – Markets Closed|
Fed braces for long haul, second wave worries hit equities
Time to dig in for the fight. Usually, at least for the last decade, a dovish Federal Reserve would help boost risk sentiment. But we are in different times and however accommodative monetary policy remains, the market needs a lot more, like a patient hooked on painkillers. Whilst the Fed last night committed to keeping rates at zero all the way through 2022, stocks (excluding the Covid-immune tech sector) are selling off.
The Fed’s extremely downbeat assessment of the US economy and jobs market, combined with expectations for a slow recovery, left risk assets looking very exposed after a big run up last week. Stocks in Europe slipped up ahead of the meeting and have extended losses today with the major bourses down more than 2% again.
Asian shares fell and Wall Street closed in the red, although the Nasdaq managed to secure another record closing high above 10,000. US Treasury yields sank partly on the commitment on keeping rates down but also because investors see a slower recovery taking place and lasting damage to the economy. Gold rallied to $1740.
FOMC economic projections dash hopes of V-shaped recovery
Assessments for the economy are grim. The Fed forecast the US economy to contract by 6.5% this year and for the unemployment rate to be above 9% by the end of the year. This would be an improvement from the current rate of 13.3%, but it points towards a very slow recovery.
Indeed, unemployment is still seen at 6.5% through 2021. Faced with this, Jay Powell, the Fed chairman, said he is “not even thinking about thinking about raising rates”. And as many have warned, some of the damage will be permanent, meaning significant lost productivity. Powell said: “My assumption is there will be a significant chunk…millions…who don’t go back to their old jobs.” The V-shaped recovery theory died last night with the Fed.
Gloomy forecasts from the Fed chime with the OECD’s downbeat outlook. It said the UK economy will contract 11.5% this year even without a second wave. And second wave worries are another factor dragging down on stocks, particularly as we see rising numbers of Covid cases in several US states like Texas, Florida and California, where hospitalisations are at their highest since May 13th after rising for nine of the last ten days.
Really the market got too far ahead of itself and is reacting to the Fed’s gloomy outlook and fears of a second wave of infections. We will get more indications about the pace of hiring vs firing today with the US initial and continuing jobless claims number.
European equities slump on the back of FOMC meeting
Today’s market moves show the reopening trade unwinding in the wake of the Fed. Carnival and IAG led the losers on the FTSE 100 whilst only Polymetal, Fresnillo and Unilever were higher. European travel & leisure shares fell 5%, with automakers and banks down 4%.
The S&P 500 is likely to open weaker after sliding 0.5% yesterday to close under 3200 at 3190. Ocado shares fell 6% after announcing a £657m share placing and that it would raise a further £350m by way of a convertible bond. Whilst shares are lower, this is about raising cash to grow, possibly transformational growth. This is what Amazon would do.
Tesla led the tech sector and Nasdaq higher, as shares rose 9% yesterday to close above $1,025. The leg up came after Elon Musk said the company would ramp production of the Tesla Semi, its electric freight truck.
In FX, the dollar is finding bid as risk sentiment sours. GBPUSD has moved back to test 1.2650, having spiked as high as 1.28 yesterday. The pound is now very much a RoRo currency – risk-on, risk-off.
Copper prices fell having rallied for the last few sessions on fears of a slow economic recovery. Oil was holding losses as it hit around $38 for WTI after a surprise rise in US crude stocks combined with the hit to risk sentiment. EIA figures showed crude oil inventories rose 5.7m barrels vs expectations for a 1.45m drawdown.
Sellers return: S&P 500 in retreat, next leg lower to 2975?
FOMC meeting preview: what to watch out for
The FOMC meeting concludes today and markets are waiting for tonight’s announcement of the decisions taken. BlondeMoney CEO Helen Thomas talks us through what to expect later.
BlondeMoney FOMC meeting preview
The FOMC aren’t expected to make significant changes to monetary policy, having already acted swiftly to dramatically ease policy to combat the economic fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Instead of looking for changes to interest rates or quantitative easing, markets will instead be focussing on key issues like yield curve control and negative rates, to see whether these got a mention during the FOMC meeting.
FOMC to consider yield curve control?
Yield curve control involves a central bank buying bonds of a set maturity in order to keep the yield at below its target level. This is done to keep borrowing costs under control, and is already being used by the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of Australia.
What will the FOMC say about negative rates?
The FOMC has so far resisted calls for interest rates to go negative. However, it wants to make sure the market is confident that it will do whatever it takes to support the economy should things worsen. We can expect Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell to be asked about negative rates during the press conference held after the FOMC meeting.
Stocks tread ranges ahead of FOMC, pound at 3-month high
Some of the biggest share price gains registered this week have been among companies that have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection – the likes of Hertz, JC Penney, Pier 1, Whiting Petroleum, as well as firms like Chesapeake Energy and California Resources which are about to file for bankruptcy. This is downright speculation, gambling by any other way of it looking at it.
Retail investors – many trading for free with Robinhood accounts – are snapping up penny stocks and driving up the shares of companies whose stock is essentially worthless. Most of these investors probably don’t realise that common stock comes precisely bottom of the pecking order in bankruptcy proceedings. Even if they don’t go bankrupt and restructure, shareholders get wiped out. It’s a sign of a frothy market – just make sure you are not the greater fool holding the stock when the music stops.
Europe opens higher, stock markets await clarity on recovery and policy support
Stocks took a breather yesterday with a decent pullback, though European bourses opened a little higher this morning ahead of the Federal Reserve statement this evening. Asian shares were mixed, with Tokyo a tad higher and Chinese shares a little weaker.
Chinese inflation figures were soft, with producer prices down 3.7%, the worst drop in 4 years, and consumer prices rising by 2.4%, down from 3.3% in April. Meanwhile data crossing this morning showed French industrial production declined 34% in April – but the market long ago chose to ignore any backward-looking data.
European stocks opened higher after yesterday’s selloff, now bouncing around ranges before there is more clarity on economic recovery and any further policy support. On the former, there are concerns about two-consecutive days of record numbers of hospitalisations in Texas as lockdown restrictions lift, but broadly optimism about reopening is trumping doubts about second waves and a slow, lacklustre recovery.
It turns out pubs won’t reopen by Jun 22nd, but the bigger worry is how you get children back to school – that should be a priority. Meanwhile, I have grave doubts about the state of the UK employment market come the autumn as furlough schemes end and businesses have reopened to a big fall in demand. Such circumstance don’t bode well for civil order, which is already looking strained in places.
Markets await FOMC statement, Nasdaq above 10,000
On the latter, the FOMC statement is due later today (see yesterday’s note). There has been chatter about yield curve control and more dovish forward guidance, but the Fed may prefer to wait until September before it strikes. The recent recovery should give it time to think, albeit it will be keeping a close watch on longer-dated yields moving up, which may be a worry.
However, I think its focus is keeping a lid on the front end and allowing some steepening should not be a concern. I think I said a year ago that we should no longer pay any attention to the dots – they’re meaningless guesses. But there could be some optimists on the FOMC seeking to pencil in a hike in 2022. More broadly, I think the Fed will signal it accepts there will be no V-shaped recovery even if the recent data has been encouraging.
US stocks were weaker as the rally paused for breath with the S&P 500 down 0.78% at 3207. The Dow snapped a 6-day winning streak with a 1% fall. The Nasdaq was of course still higher and broke 10,000 for the first time ever. Boeing shares have been on a tear lately but tripped up with a 6% drop as it revealed it delivered just four jets in May and saw another 18 orders cancelled. IATA says 2020 will be the worst year in the history of the aviation industry. Vroom went zoom with a 117% gain on the first day of trading to $47.90. Apple shares rose another 3% to a fresh all-time high on reports it would use its own chips in its devices, helping to drag the Nasdaq into record territory.
Dollar offered, cable hits fresh 3-month high
In FX the dollar is offered across the board with both risk proxies and the yen making gains. The pound has broken out to fresh 3-month highs with GBPUSD clearing 1.2760. EURUSD was higher around 1.1350, trying to take out the Jun 5th peak at 1.1382. The ECB’s Muller said PEPP needs to be temporary and should not be increased if at all possible. He also said low inflation expectations are a short term risk, so take what he says with a pinch of salt.
Expectations for a dovish Fed may be a factor but we are seeing this as part of an unwinding of the strong dollar pandemic trade that was built on USD liquidity squeeze. Nevertheless, the dollar index continues to make new lows and may well take 95 handle before long having broken down through the last Fib support. Key support is seen around the 94.50/60 area.
Oil steadies ahead of EIA inventories data after surprise API build
Crude oil (Aug) was steady a little above $38, about $2 off Monday’s highs, after API data yesterday showed a surprise build in US crude inventories that has reignited oversupply fears. US crude stocks climbed 8.4m barrels in the week to Jun 5th, vs expectations for a draw of 1.7m barrels. The EIA data today is forecast to show a draw of 1.8m barrels. But the forecasts have been way out for weeks, with an average consensus miss of about 5m barrels, so I wouldn’t be putting too much faith in the expectations.
Natural gas prices spiked aggressively lower overnight and though paring losses are still trading down by around 2% today after the IEA said 2020 would see the largest demand shock in the history of the market.
European shares soft ahead of FOMC meeting, Wall Street erases 2020 losses
Shares on Wall Street wiped out all of 2020’s losses even as the US was officially declared in recession. The S&P 500 is now up 0.05% for the year, after rising 1.2% on Monday on what looks like a mad fear-of-missing-out trade. The broad index finished at 3,232.39 on the cash close having gained another 38 pts and is now just 160 points away from its all-time high at 3,393.52 and trades with a forward PE multiple of 23.4.
In other words, unless earnings bounce back significantly faster than consensus estimates, then it’s very richly priced. It’s remarkable that equity markets can be this stretched on such a catastrophic economic contraction – but that is what unlimited Fed liquidity does.
European equities soft as markets await FOMC
Equity markets in Europe were lower again with investors looking ahead to the Federal Reserve two-day meeting, which starts today. Some big names in France – Airbus, Safran, Thales, and Dassault turned sharply lower despite opening in the green this morning even as the French finance minister unveiled a €15bn support plan for the aerospace industry. BP shares fell 1% as investors further digest the restructuring and job cuts.
With its dividend yield running at 9% it will have to cut pay-outs to shareholders sooner or later. The FTSE 100 may test the 6400 support level today after dropping under the 50-hour simple moving average support, whilst the DAX is hovering around the 12,700 level, with a possible support zone found at the big 78.6% Fib level around 12,565.
European markets still seem a bit unsure whether they should follow the US with another leg higher or show some more restraint given the economic uncertainty – and the fact Europe just doesn’t have the same amount of big tech – the S&P 500 technology sector is up 11% YTD, in line with the Nasdaq 100. German trade data was weak as exports in April suffered the biggest decline in 30 years. Exports –24%, imports –16.5%.
Asian markets were mixed with the ASX 200 rallying 2.44% and Chinese shares higher, whilst the Nikkei lost 0.38% as Japanese machine tool orders – an important leading indicator of manufacturing activity – fell 52.8% year-on-year last month.
FOMC meeting – Covid-19 necessitates caution
So far through this equity rally we’ve seen lack of harmony between interest rates and equities. Bonds didn’t really budge even as stocks started to ramp. As we flagged last week, the bond market has started to move, albeit 10yr Treasury yields retreated off their highs yesterday ahead of the FOMC meeting.
The combination of strong jobs, mortgage approvals and car sales numbers last week started to show in longer-date yields picking up. But this will not make the Fed see any reason to change its stance for now. The economic contraction in Q2 is still going to be severe, and unemployment remains exceptionally high by historic standards. The need for monetary policy to remain accommodative has not altered. And for all that the US is reopening, the WHO says the pandemic is getting worse globally.
The Fed is likely to leave rates and forward guidance unchanged. It will also stick to unlimited QE commitment, albeit it is tapering purchases. Although there have been signs that the US economy is bouncing back quicker than expected, unemployment is expected to remain elevated through the rest of the year and beyond.
Moreover, there are signs of Covid cases increasing in states which have reopened, and there is always the potential for a second wave this winter. This means the Fed will remain cautious, but it may want to signal that the next move on rates will be up and not down to quell talk of negative rates. The move in longer-dated Treasuries of late supports this view is now the market’s view.
Vroom prices IPO above target range
Meanwhile, keeping an eye on capital market health, another IPO in the US got away well. Vroom, an online used car seller, raised close to $500m in its initial public offering yesterday, pricing at $22, above the previous $18-$20 range, and implying a market cap of around $2.5bn. The company will start trading on the Nasdaq today with the ticker VRM. IPO activity is down this year for very obvious reasons, but there are signs the market in the US at least is coming back to life.
ZoomInfo stock has more than doubled since its IPO last week. We will be watching closely to see whether it encourages some of the larger names and ‘unicorns’ such as Airbnb, Robinhood, Instacart or Palantir to come back to the IPO table this year in spite of the pandemic.
GBPUSD gains in risk-on trade
In FX, the pound is coming off its highs to test the trend support around the 50-period moving average on the 1-hr time frame. Still sterling continues to make gains versus the dollar as the risk-on mood in markets supports cable. Having failed to secure 1.2750 bulls will need to retake this level soon to continue the thrust to 1.28 and open the road to 1.30. Immediate horizontal support at 1.2630.
La settimana che ci aspetta: Aspettative alte per gli incontri del FOMC
Come già avvenuto nell’ultimo periodo, la settimana prossima sarà legittimo aspettarsi una serie disastrosa di dati economici. Analizzeremo le cifre per avere indizi su quanto tempo potrebbe richiedere la ripresa economica, e anche se le proiezioni che prevedono il crollo del secondo trimestre sono terribili come sembrano.
I mercati delle materie prime seguiranno da vicino l’incontro dell’OPEC, anche se le ultime indiscrezioni suggeriscono che gli operatori potrebbero rimanere delusi. Il FOMC potrebbe rivedere le sue proiezioni economiche e fornire qualche ulteriore chiarimento sulle prospettive relative alla policy con uno spostamento verso la forward guidance implicita.
Cosa potranno dirci i dati sulla fiducia in merito al recupero post-Covid?
I trader, gli economisti, le imprese e i policy maker di tutto il mondo sono ancora incerti su quale forma prenderà la ripresa nel post-lockdown. Molti sperano ancora in un rimbalzo deciso, anche se la cosa sembra improbabile.
Tra tutte queste incertezze, il sentiment delle imprese e dei consumatori è un indicatore utile sulle sensazioni che ha chi è sul campo relativamente al percorso da intraprendere. Non sorprende che finora i sondaggi siano stati profondamente pessimistici.
Tuttavia le economie stanno riaprendo, le misure di blocco sono in fase di allentamento e la vita sta tornando ad essere simile alla normalità in molti paesi. Ciò si è tradotto in una prospettiva più positiva, oppure il primo passo ha semplicemente mostrato quanto ci resta da percorrere sulla strada della ripresa?
L’OPEC estenderà i tagli record alla produzione?
La settimana scorsa i mercati petroliferi sono rimasti delusi quando i membri dell’OPEC hanno deciso di non anticipare il vertice previsto per il 9 giugno. Le notizie all’inizio della settimana avevano rivelato che l’organizzazione stava cercando di estendere i suoi tagli record alla produzione per diversi mesi, se non fino alla fine dell’anno.
Queste speranze avevano sostenuto il prezzo del petrolio, ma il greggio e il Brent hanno perso slancio verso la fine della settimana quando le prospettive sono diventate meno positive. Alla fine, sembra più probabile che l’Arabia Saudita e la Russia si accorderanno per prolungare i tagli per un solo mese, anziché ridurre la produzione da luglio. Tuttavia, le tensioni sul mancato accordo tra alcuni membri dell’organizzazione stanno sollevando dubbi sulla probabilità che si riesca a concludere un accordo.
Dati sull’inflazione negli Stati Uniti: è in corso una deflazione sostenuta?
I dati sull’inflazione negli Stati Uniti saranno resi pubblici questa settimana. Di recente l’andamento dell’inflazione è stato impressionante: in aprile è stato registrato il calo più importante della crescita dei prezzi da dicembre 2008, e l’inflazione di base ha subito il calo maggiore dall’inizio delle serie storica nel 1957.
Non sarà un solo mese di forti ribassi dei prezzi a preoccupare i policy maker, ma la più grande inquietudine è che stiamo entrando in un lungo periodo di deflazione. I tassi di interesse sono già al minimo, ma un nuovo rapporto che indichi che la crescita dei prezzi è sotto quota zero potrebbe far sì che i mercati si domandino per quanto ancora il FOMC potrà lasciare le cose come stanno prima di portare i tassi in negativo.
Il vertice del FOMC: i mercati alla ricerca di proiezioni economiche e di un orientamento futuro
Il Federal Open Market Committee annuncerà giovedì le sue ultime decisioni relative alla policy.
Questa volta i mercati spereranno che il FOMC dia maggiori indicazioni. Il vertice di aprile e i successivi verbali non sono stati in grado di fornire alcun quadro concreto sulla possibile evoluzione della politica monetaria futura per rispondere al peggioramento delle condizioni economiche. I membri hanno discusso sulla definizione di obiettivi per la disoccupazione e l’inflazione, e anche per stabilire una data limite prima della quale non aumentare i tassi di interesse.
È probabile che vedremo ritornare il SEP (sintesi delle proiezioni economiche), che era stato abbandonato a marzo perché all’epoca le prospettive sull’economia erano troppo incerte per essere analizzate. Tutto questo, e un passo verso la forward guidance implicita, servirà per fornire ai mercati un quadro più accurato della politica futura della Fed.
La crescita del Regno Unito e i dati sulla produzione daranno forma alle aspettative del secondo trimestre
Una serie di dati relativi al Regno Unito nel mese di aprile ci offre uno scorcio sulle temute prestazioni del secondo trimestre. Viene già dato per scontato che questo trimestre sarà terribile, ma il PIL mensile e le cifre sulla produzione del settore riveleranno se anche gli scenari peggiori sono stati abbastanza realistici.
La media del PIL sul trimestre che termina ad aprile dovrebbe attestarsi attorno ad un -12%, in calo del 2% in aprile. Su base mensile, è previsto un calo della crescita pari al -24%, mentre il calo su base annua si aggirerà intorno al -29%. È verosimile attendersi che la produzione manifatturiera sia calata di quasi il 30%. Siamo nel bel mezzo di quello che dovrebbe essere il momento peggiore, ma ci sono ancora dubbi su quanto gravemente sia stata colpita l’economia.
Cieli sereni per l’offerta basata sul cloud di Adobe?
Con il termine della stagione degli utili, il calendario delle aziende appare decisamente ridotto, anche se il caso di Adobe potrà rivelarsi interessante.
Il software dell’azienda è basato sul cloud, con grande sollievo di molte aziende che si affidano ad esso ma hanno i propri dipendenti bloccati a casa lontano dai loro computer in ufficio. Il fatto che i loro prodotti siano venduti con un modello basato sull’iscrizione potrebbe aiutare l’azienda a mantenere entrate relativamente stabili, anche se come la maggior parte delle aziende è verosimile che Adobe registrerà un duro colpo alle proprie attività nel corso di questo trimestre.
In evidenza su XRay questa settimana
Leggi il programma completo dell’analisi e formazione del mercato finanziario.
|07.15 UTC||Daily||European Morning Call|
|17.00 UTC||08-June||Blonde Markets|
|From 15.30 UTC||09-June||Gold, Silver, and Oil Weekly Forecasts|
|17.00 UTC||10-June||FOMC Preview with chief market analyst Neil Wilson|
|14.45 UTC||11-June||Master the Markets with Andrew Barnett|
Eventi economici principali
Presta attenzione agli eventi più importanti sul calendario economico di questa settimana:
|06.00 UTC||08-Jun||German Industrial Production|
|08.30 UTC||08-Jun||Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence|
|01.30 UTC||09-Jun||AU NAB Business Confidence|
|09.00 UTC||09-Jun||Eurozone Final Employment Change / Revised GDP (Q/Q)|
|00.30 UTC||10-Jun||Westpac Consumer Sentiment|
|01.30 UTC||10-Jun||China CPI|
|12.30 UTC||10-Jun||US CPI|
|14.30 UTC||10-Jun||US EIA Crude Oil Inventories|
|18.00 UTC||10-Jun||FOMC Rate Decision|
|18.30 UTC||10-Jun||FOMC Press Conference|
|Pre-Market||10-Jun||Dollarama – Q1 2021|
|12.30 UTC||11-Jun||US Unemployment Claims|
|14.30 UTC||11-Jun||US EIA Natural Gas Storage|
|After-Market||11-Jun||Adobe – Q2 2020|
|06.00 UTC||12-Jun||UK GDP (M/M), Manufacturing/Industrial Production (M/M), Construction Output (M/M)|
|14.00 UTC||12-Jun||Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment Index|
Week Ahead: Walmart and Home Depot Earnings, UK April Jobless Claims, May PMIs
We may be reaching the tail end of earnings season, but there are still some eagerly awaited releases lined up this week. Highlights will be reports from Walmart and Home Depot; stock in these companies has seen strong bid even as the wider market has tanked.
We also have the FOMC minutes, a host of PMIs, and jobless claims data from the UK for April. Here’s your full breakdown of the coming events you need to know about.
Japan Q1 GDP estimate
Preliminary Q1 GDP data for Japan is due early on Monday, but as with all Q1 growth data it will serve as the prelude to something much worse. The economy is expected to have contracted -1.2% on the quarter, after a -1.8% decline in the final three months of 2019. Annualised growth is expected to print at -4.6%, again a slowdown from the -7.1% drop recorded in 2019 Q4.
Forecasts for Q2 expect a 22% decline, the worst since the end of the Second World War. Will the Q1 figures give us any indication of how accurate those estimates might be, or will markets ignore the data and wait for more clarity?
How many UK jobs have been lost in lockdown?
The UK reports jobless claims data for April, when the workforce suffered an entire month of lockdown. The number of people filing jobless claims grew by over 12,000 in March: April’s figure is likely to print around 650,000. Unemployment rate figures are also scheduled, but these cover March and so are extremely backwards-looking by this point. A little later on Tuesday morning, the Labour Productivity Index for the first quarter is expected to print at -2.6%.
UK inflation set to collapse
April UK inflation data will feel the impact of collapsing retail sales, shuttered businesses, climbing unemployment and furloughed workers. Annualised price growth is expected to slump from 1.5% in May to 0.2% last month, with prices predicted to shrink -0.7% on the month after stagnating in April. The core inflation rate is predicted to drop to 1% on an annualised basis and -0.3% on the month. The contraction in producer prices is predicted to have accelerated to -3.9% on the year, and to have doubled to -0.4% on the month.
High hopes for Walmart, Home Depot earnings
Markets think Walmart and Home Depot are well-positioned to weather the coronavirus pandemic. Both stocks are over 4% higher year-to-date at the time of writing, compared to a -13% drop for the S&P 500. Walmart actually hit record highs at the end of April.
The Wall Street Journal recently reported that Walmart saw a 20% increase in sales during March alone. Markets clearly expect a lot from the leading retailers, but can Walmart and Home Depot deliver?
Both Walmart and Home Depot have “Strong Buy” ratings according to our Analyst Recommendations tool. Walmart has an average price target of $132.79 which represents a 7% upside on prices at the time of writing. Home Depot has a target price of $238.15, a 4% upside.
FOMC meeting minutes
We already know a lot more about the current thinking of the Federal Reserve thanks to last week’s speech from chair Jerome Powell. The minutes of the meeting at the end of April could be moot: Powell’s speech gave away what would likely have been the headlines from the minutes, namely that it was likely more stimulus would be necessary, but negative interest rates are not something being considered at this time.
Eurozone economic sentiment set to go negative again
April’s ZEW Economic Sentiment surveys for the Eurozone and Germany unexpectedly leapt back into positive territory. Assessment of current conditions remained dire, but investors began to focus on recovery.
But the reality of the recession that lies between where we are now and where we’re trying to get back to is expected to hit sentiment hard again this month, with the German reading forecast to plummet back to -14 and the Eurozone wide reading dropping to -10.
UK PMIs headed lower, Eurozone set to bounce off lows
This week we get the flash PMI readings for May. UK manufacturing is expected to drop to 26.6, while the services index will slip to 9. The overall composite PMI is expected to drop from 13.8 to 9.2.
Manufacturing and services in the Eurozone and its member states, however, are expected to rebound from their lows as economies began relaxing lockdown measures. Germany’s manufacturing index is predicted to jump around 10 points to 45, while services is forecast to more than double to 37 points. Overall the composite index is expected to climb from 17.4 to 40. The Eurozone composite is expected to rise from 13.6 to 34.
It’s worth remembering that these figures still represent a huge rate of contraction across all areas of the economy. The Eurozone economy may have bounced back from the initial shock of COVID-19, but there is still a long road ahead – and expectations for how long are getting bigger all the time.
Heads-Up on Earnings
The following companies are set to publish their quarterly earnings reports this week:
|18-May||Ryanair – FY 2020|
|Pre-Market||19-May||Walmart – Q1 2021|
|Pre-Market||19-May||Home Depot – Q1 2020|
|19-May||Imperial Brands – Q2 2020|
|Pre-Market||20-May||Lowe’s – Q1 2020|
|Pre-Market||20-May||Target Corp – Q1 2020|
|Pre-Market||20-May||Analog Devices – Q2 2020|
|20-May||Experian – FY 2020|
|Pre-Market||21-May||Medtronic – Q4 2020|
|Pre-Market||21-May||Best Buy – Q1 2021|
|After-Market||21-May||Intuit – Q3 2020|
|After-Market||21-May||Ross Stores – Q1 2020|
|After-Market||21-May||Agilent Technologies – Q2 2020|
|After-Market||21-May||Hewlett Packard Enterprise – Q2 2020|
|After-Market||21-May||NVIDIA – Q1 2021|
|22-May||Deere & Co – Q2 2020|
Highlights on XRay this Week
|17.00 UTC||18-May||Blonde Markets|
|18.00 UTC||18-May||The Ten Rules of Trading|
|15.30 UTC||19-May||Weekly Gold Forecast|
|18.00 UTC||19-May||Reading Candlestick Charts: Trading Patterns and Trends|
|11.00 UTC||20-May||Midweek Lunch Wrap|
Key Economic Events
Watch out for the biggest events on the economic calendar this week:
|23.50 UTC||17-May||Japan Preliminary Quarterly GDP|
|01.30 UTC||19-May||RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes|
|06.00 UTC||19-May||UK Claimant Count Change / Unemployment Rate|
|09.00 UTC||19-May||Germany / Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment|
|06.00 UTC||20-May||UK Inflation|
|12.30 UTC||20-May||Canada Inflation|
|14.30 UTC||20-May||US EIA Crude Oil Inventories|
|18.00 UTC||20-May||FOMC Meeting Minutes|
|07.15 – 08.00 UTC||21-May||FR, DE, Eurozone Flash Services and Manufacturing PMIs|
|08.30 UTC||21-May||UK Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs|
|12.30 UTC||21-May||US Jobless Claims|
|13.45 UTC||21-May||US Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs|
|22.45 UTC||21-May||New Zealand Quarterly Retail Sales|
|06.00 UTC||22-May||UK Retail Sales|
|12.30 UTC||22-May||Canada Core Retail Sales|
Fed and ECB previews
First up, the Federal Reserve kicks off its two-day meeting today (Apr 28th) and whilst there is always scope for a surprise, we would not anticipate any change to the policy outlook, chiefly because the Fed is no longer waiting for scheduled policy meetings but is operating in ‘real-time’.
There is virtually zero chance the Fed will remove any accommodation until the threat of Covid-19 has passed. But if anyone thinks the FOMC will go negative they are in for a shock – there is no appetite to cut rates any lower and go below the zero lower bound. Europe and Japan are hardly shining examples of that policy working. Jay Powel has already ruled it out, though that in itself is not a reason it won’t happen.
The Fed has already thrown the kitchen sink at the market and the economy, announcing unlimited bond buying – QE4ever – and expansion of corporate debt buying to include junk. There is not a huge amount left for the Fed could realistically do, save buying stocks outright and taking rates negative, neither or which are palatable or likely in the near term, partly because the efforts so far have calmed market stress and prevented further dislocation.
Markets will be looking for any signal from Jay Powell about how the Fed views the rebound – is he still confident of a bounce back in the second half? Formal projections are not due until June.
It’s a fairly similar story for the European Central Bank (ECB). We think they will not commit to any further policy moves right now but will likely signal they are ready to do so by June. The Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) QE lift has been initiated with an overall envelope of €750bn, and it appears likely to be expanded by an additional €500bn in the next month or three.
Two key things will be the focus. First the communication needs to be crystal clear – we don’t want a repeat of the spreads widening fiasco from Christine Lagarde. Since then the ECB has been absolutely on-point. The ECB must be continue to show to the market that it stands four-square behind the functioning of markets, the single currency and supporting the EZ economy. And on this, I would anticipate a lot of the focus in the press conference to be on the European Council efforts on a bailout package. Watch the BTPs-Bund spreads for how the market views the ECB performance.
EURUSD – as noted on Monday, speculators are dialling up their net long bets on the euro. The Commitment of Traders (COT) from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed euro net longs rose to 87.2k contracts in the week to Apr 21st, the most since May 2017. Traders turned long at the end of March and have been adding to positions since then. We saw a shift like this in speculative EUR positioning in 2017 it preceded a 15% rally in EURUSD.
Week Ahead: Bumper week with FOMC, ECB, FAANGS & GDP
Welcome to your guide to the week ahead in the markets. Remember you can now find all the key events affecting the markets in our new Events Calendar in the platform.
European Central Bank rate decision
Last week ECB president Christine Lagarde allegedly told EU leaders during a private video summit that the bloc could be facing a drop in GDP of up to 15%, and that their efforts to contain the outbreak have been both too little and too late. Monetary policy can only go so far, but the ECB does still have room to manoeuvre. Expansion of QE will likely be the first port of call if policymakers decide more needs to be done, but minutes from the March 18th meeting show that cutting rates was floated, too.
FOMC decision – has the Fed got any ammunition left?
What’s left for the Federal Reserve to do? Rates have been slashed to zero, and that’s where futures markets see them staying well into 2021 at least. And it’s hard to announce more QE when you’ve already committed to unlimited asset purchases. The key question is what the FOMC has left in reserve in case its vast stimulus measures aren’t enough. Will policymakers set negative rates? Will they buy corporate stocks? Will they explicitly target yields on government bonds? Markets will be looking for reassurance that policymakers still have plenty of ammunition left.
Bumper week of earnings with Apple, Alphabet, Facebook reporting
Netflix has already reported earnings, but this week sees the rest of the FAANG group offering up their quarterly figures. Tesla and Microsoft are also amongst the heavy hitters providing updates this week.
US, Eurozone GDP
We’ve seen piecemeal evidence of the impact COVID-19 has had on the US and Eurozone economies thanks to industrial data, PMIs, and business sentiment figures. But now it’s time to get the full picture, as the US and Eurozone will both publish estimates of Q1 growth. It was initially believed that moderate growth in January and February would have softened the blow from social distancing and widespread lockdowns that went into effect in March. Now the consensus is that the recession expected in Q2 arrived much earlier. Estimates vary wildly, but no matter how dire the results, the figures for Q2 are likely to be way worse.
Heads-Up on Earnings
|After-Market||28-Apr||Alphabet – Q1 2020|
|After-Market||29-Apr||Microsoft – Q3 2020|
|After-Market||29-Apr||Facebook – Q1 2020|
|After-Market||29-Apr||Tesla – Q1 2020|
|After-Market||30-Apr||Apple – Q2 2020|
|After-Market||30-Apr||Amazon – Q1 2020|
|03.00 UTC||28-Apr||BOJ Rate Decision & Outlook Report|
|07.00 UTC||28-Apr||Spanish Unemployment Rate Q1|
|14.00 UTC||28-Apr||US CB Consumer Confidence|
|01.30 UTC||29-Apr||Australia Quarterly CPI|
|12.00 UTC||29-Apr||Germany Preliminary CPI|
|12.30 UTC||29-Apr||US Advance GDP QoQ|
|14.30 UTC||29-Apr||US EIA Crude Oil Inventories|
|18.00 UTC||29-Apr||FOMC Rate Decision|
|09.00 UTC||30-Apr||Eurozone Flash GDP|
|11.45 UTC||30-Apr||ECB Rate Decision and Statement|
|12.30 UTC||30-Apr||US Initial Jobless Claims|
|14.30 UTC||30-Apr||US EIA Natural Gas Storage|
Week Ahead: FOMC’s symmetric minutes, German sentiment, UK inflation
The last meeting of the Federal Reserve Committee saw policymakers reaffirming their commitment to letting inflation run hot in order to make up for years of lacklustre price growth. Jerome Powell told reporters after the meeting that “we wanted to underscore our commitment to 2% not being a ceiling, to inflation running symmetrically around 2% and we’re not satisfied with inflation running below 2%”. Expect more underscoring in the minutes, and perhaps more softening of the economic assessment – the post-meeting statement revised its view of consumer spending to “moderate” from “strong” in December.
Germany ZEW sentiment
Industrial production data last week raised further questions over the outlook for the Eurozone. Production fell 4.1% during 2019, and now there’s the added threat of disrupted supply chains thanks to the coronavirus outbreak. Last month’s ZEW sentiment index surged to 26.7 from 10.7 in December, but recent developments suggest that optimism may have been premature.
A soft inflation reading in December had seen markets divided over whether or not the Bank of England was finally about to cut interest rates, having been on hold so long due to Brexit uncertainty. In the end Governor Mark Carney left things unchanged before passing the baton to Andrew Bailey. Another round of soft inflation data this week might not be enough on its own to persuade the Monetary Policy Committee that a rate cut is necessary, but if Friday’s preliminary Markit PMIs also show weakness markets are likely to raise bets on easing soon.
Eyes on OPEC
Oil markets had been hoping that OPEC would ride to the rescue this month, bringing forward its March meeting as the coronavirus outbreak hammers global oil demand. It now seems that this is unlikely, but any rumours to the contrary will still have a strong impact on oil. A change in diagnostic methods last week saw the number of coronavirus cases and deaths race higher, but equities largely shrugged this off. It’s commodities that are bearing the brunt of the economic impact, so key risks remain for oil on virus and OPEC-related headlines.
Heads-Up On Earnings
The following companies are set to publish their quarterly earnings reports this week:
|17th Feb – 21.30 GMT||BHP Billiton||Q2 2020|
|18th Feb – 00.30 GMT||Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes|
|18th Feb – 04.00 GMT||HSBC Holdings||Q4 2019|
|18th Feb – 09.30 GMT||UK Unemployment Rate, Average Earnings|
|18th Feb – 10.00 GMT||Eurozone/Germany ZEW Survey Results|
|18th Feb – Pre-Market||Walmart||Q4 2020|
|18th Feb – Pre-Market||Medtronic||Q3 2020|
|18th Feb – Pre-Market||Glencore||Q4 2019|
|19th Feb – 09.30 GMT||UK Consumer Price Index|
|19th Feb – 13.30 GMT||Canada Consumer Price Index|
|19th Feb – 19.00 GMT||FOMC Meeting Minutes|
|20th Feb – 00.30 GMT||Australia Employment Change/Unemployment Rate|
|20th Feb – 01.30 GMT||People’s Bank of China Interest Rate Decision|
|20th Feb – 07.00 GMT||Germany GfK Consumer Confidence|
|20th Feb – 09.30 GMT||UK Retail Sales|
|20th Feb – 12.30 GMT||ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts|
|20th Feb – 15.30 GMT||US EIA Natural Gas Storage|
|20th Feb – 16.00 GMT||US EIA Crude Oil Inventories|
|20th Feb||BAE Systems||Q4 2019|
|21st Feb – 06.00 GMT||Allianz||Q4 2019|
|21st Feb – 09.30 GMT||UK Market Flash Composite (Inc Flash Manufacturing/Services PMIs)|
|21st Feb – 10.00 GMT||Eurozone Consumer Price Index|
|21st Feb – Pre-Market||Deere & Co||Q1 20202|
Watch the Week Ahead on XRay
Highlights on XRay this week:
|Daily||08.15 GMT||European Morning Call||Free||Register|
|18th Feb||14.15 GMT||Live Trading Room with Trendsignal||Free||Register|
|18th Feb||16.30-17.10 GMT||Asset in Focus: Oil Gold and Silver||Free||Register|
|19th Feb||12.00 GMT||Midweek Lunch Wrap||Free||Register|
|21st Feb||13.00 GMT||Live Trade Setups with Mark Leigh||Free||Register|