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Giovedi Dec 21 2023 19:00
4 min
News of 737 MAX deliveries to China yet to move Boeing stock
Chinese deliveries yet to move Boeing stock, analysts optimistic
The Boeing 737 MAX has achieved a significant development in China as indications suggest that Chinese airlines are preparing to resume the reception of these jets.
The news appear to bring a favorable outlook for Boeing's stock heading into 2024.
In a report cited by Barron’s on Wednesday, Deutsche Bank analyst Scott Deutschle wrote:
“Based on our review of public flight tracking data, a 737 MAX pre-delivery flight appears to be underway for China Southern Airlines. We view this flight as an incremental positive for Boeing, as it is suggestive of a higher probability that deliveries of 737 MAX aircraft into China could resume in the coming months.”
Boeing has not yet responded to inquiries seeking comments on the recent developments related to the flight.
Chinese carriers have not received deliveries of the MAX since March 2019. Notably, ICBC Leasing, owned by a Chinese bank, acquired a few MAX jets in 2021 and 2022; however, the destinations of these planes remain uncertain. ICBC Leasing serves both domestic Chinese and foreign airlines, as stated on its website.
The potential resumption of MAX jet deliveries to China signifies a step towards post-pandemic normalization for the Chinese aviation sector and the global air travel industry. In 2022, China's stringent zero-Covid lockdowns disrupted the domestic market, eliminating the need for Chinese airlines to expand their fleets. Air traffic, however, has been recovering through 2023, with domestic air travel in the Asia-Pacific region witnessing a 90% year-over-year increase in October, according to the International Air Transport Association's latest available data.
While global air travel has reached 98% of pre-COVID levels, the slower recovery in China has posed challenges for Boeing in recent years. Following two fatal crashes, the MAX was globally grounded from March 2019 to November 2020. Despite global aviation regulators recertifying the plane, China delayed its reintroduction. The MAX returned to Chinese airspace in October 2022 with a Mongolian Airlines flight, and domestic airlines resumed MAX flights in January 2023.
Although deliveries to China are a positive development, the news is yet to impact Boeing stock. On Thursday, Boeing shares were up 1.71% in premarket trading at $264.61, contrasting with the minor declines of 0.19% and 0.05% in the S&P 500 index and Dow Jones Industrial Average, respectively.
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Boeing stock price forecast: Analysts optimistic, see potential
Boeing's stock has seen a robust month, bringing its year-to-date gain close to 37%. Investor confidence in the recovery of air traffic and its implications for Boeing's earnings and free cash flow in the coming years has had an impact on the stock’s performance.
Analyst sentiment remains optimistic, with about 80% of analysts covering Boeing stock giving it a Buy rating, according to information cited by Barron’s reporter Al Root in a recent piece. The average target price on Boeing shares is around $268, reflecting confidence in the company's future prospects. In comparison, the average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 500 stands at approximately 55%.
At the time of writing on Thursday, Boeing’s stock, trading under the ticker BA on the NYSE, was up 36.62% year-to-date. France's Airbus SE, Boeing’s main competitor, was up close to 24.5% over the same period, with shares currently priced around €138.24 a piece. Airbus shares trade on the Euronext exchange under the ticker AIR.
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