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Martedì Jul 16 2024 14:17
8 min
European shares dip as markets mull RNC, Trump 2.0
European markets in the red, US stocks rise as RNC kicks off in Milwaukee
European stock markets were in the red early on Tuesday despite more positive signals from the US, with London, Frankfurt and Paris all down between one-third and one-half a percent. The Dow rallied to a fresh all-time high in the wake of the Trump shooting.
Fed Chair Jay Powell leant into a September rate cut. Front-end yields slid, with the 2-year Treasury yield sinking to its lowest since February. Bitcoin came back down off a one-month high, gold rallied to a two-month peak very close to the all-time high, and crude fell to its weakest in a month. The Dow Jones rose half a percent to a new record.
Apple stock led the way as Morgan Stanley named the company its top pick, sending the shares to a record high. Goldman Sachs also rose after posting a doubling in profit. The S&P 500 index notched a fresh intraday high, closing a little ways off that, up 0.28% for the session.
Trump nominates Vance as running mate, markets seem unbothered about greater uncertainty
Investors did not seem bothered by a perception of greater uncertainty in a broad sense (assassinations can be hinge points for history) as the result of the November US election now seems more certain.
So, we can feel more uncertainty now, even if the probability of the outcome is higher. Trump kicked off the Republican National Convention (RNC) in Milwaukee by announcing Ohio’s JD Vance as his running mate.
Markets are starting to really discount a Trump win, factoring in a bit more inflation and some stock-specific positioning.
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Mercati
ETF
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Criptovalute
Azioni
Valuta
Obbligazioni
Materie Prime
Indice
Strumento
Porsche
Procter & Gamble
Roku Inc
Deere
Quanta Services
Yandex
UniCredit
Rolls-Royce
Inditex
Deliveroo Holdings
Goldman Sachs
Coca-Cola Co (NYSE)
Infosys
Toro
ChargePoint Holdings Inc
Comcast
Chipotle
Campari
The Cheesecake Factory
Virgin Galactic
LVMH
Eni
Medtronic
ProSiebenSat.1
Qualcomm
BioNTech
SIG
Meta (Formerly Facebook)
Philip Morris
Visa
Schlumberger
SMCI
Plug Power
Nike
ADT
3D Systems
Nikola Corporation
Pinterest Inc
Bristol Myers
Jumia Technologies
Broadcom
Upstart Holdings Inc
Salesforce.com
Amazon.com
Cinemark
Moderna Inc
AMC Entertainment Holdings
Air France-KLM
Glencore plc
Starbucks
Uber
Golar LNG
Pfizer
Palantir Technologies Inc
CrowdStrike Holdings
Mastercard
Blackrock
Vir Biotechnology
Toyota
Kuaishou
MerckCo USA
Cisco Systems
Porsche AG
II-VI
Evraz
JD.com
Snap
JP Morgan
Lululemon
UPS
AIA
Deutsche Bank
Airbus Group SE
Zoom Video Communications
XPeng Inc
Trade Desk
AbbVie
Sartorius AG
Mondelez
Hammerson
CNOOC
Snowflake
Thermo Fisher
CCB (Asia)
Kraft Heinz
Unilever
China Life
eBay
Linde PLC
GameStop
Infinera
UnitedHealth
ASOS
SAP
Barclays
Christian Dior
Wish.com Inc
AstraZeneca
FirstRand
SONY
CAT
Applied Materials
BlackBerry
ALIBABA HK
British American Tobacco
AT&T
Siemens
Diageo
Palo Alto Networks
Vipshop
Amgen
Prosus N.V.
ASML
Airbnb Inc
Lithium Americas Corp
JnJ
Wal-Mart Stores
Nasdaq
Exxon Mobil
McDonald's
Shopify
Hermes
Iberdrola
Peloton Interactive Inc.
Ozon
Apple
Volkswagen
Marriott
Sea
Micron
Conoco Phillips
Morgan Stanley
Ford
Upwork Inc.
Nel ASA
Bank of America
Accenture
Santander
Abbott
Trump Media & Technology Group
Royal Bank Canada
UiPath Inc
Spotify
Fedex
LUCID
Anglo American
Allianz
Dave & Buster's
Shell plc (LSE)
Xiaomi
Adidas
Skillz Inc
HDFC Bank
Cellnex
Freeport McMoRan
Wells Fargo
PepsiCo
Berkshire Hathaway
Lockheed Martin
Coinbase Inc
HSBC
Target
Netflix
Vonovia
PayPal
DISNEY
Invesco Mortgage
Blackstone
Boeing Co
Lumentum Holdings
Canopy Growth
Beyond Meat
Block
Qorvo
Delivery Hero SE
Teladoc
Unity Software
PG&E
Microsoft
Gilead
Li Auto
Chevron
Naspers
BP
MercadoLibre.com
Alibaba
New Oriental
CarMax
Lemonade
Citigroup
Two Harbors Investment aration
Taiwan Semi
Total
Bayer
Marston's
Twilio
Home Depot
Oracle
Gen Digital Inc
Baidu
ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd
T-Mobile
Norwegian Cruise Line
ON Semiconductor
American Express
Macy's
Vodafone
L'Oreal
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Robinhood
Nio
Lloyds
Aptiv PLC
Novavax
Norwegian Air Shuttle
American Airlines
TUI
Annaly Capital
RTX Corp
NVIDIA
Adobe
General Motors
PETROCHINA
Aurora Cannabis Inc
Barrick Gold
Fuelcell
General Electric
Anheuser-Busch Inbev
Continental
Eli Lilly
F5 Networks
Etsy
Hubspot
easyJet
Telecom Italia
Ceconomy
Rio Tinto
AMD
Cameco
Arista
Tencent
British American Tobacco
DeltaAir
Verizon
Airbus
Lufthansa
Teleperformance
GSX Techedu
Rivian Automotive
Wayfair
IBM
Bilibili Inc
HSBC HK
Occidental
Lyft
IAG
Costco
Tilray
Fresnillo
Intel
ROBLOX Corp
BASF
Workday Inc
GoPro
DoorDash
Electrolux
GoHealth
Alphabet (Google)
Tipi di account
Direzione
Quantità
L'ammontare deve essere uguale o superiore a
L’importo deve essere più bassa di
L’importo deve essere un multiplo dell'incremento minimo per i lotti
I risultati del passato non sono un indicatore affidabile dei rendimenti futuri.
Tutte le posizioni sugli strumenti denominati in una valuta diversa dalla valuta del tuo conto saranno soggetti ad una commissione di cambio valuta anche in fase di chiusura della posizione.
What to expect from Trump 2.0?
Higher bond yields, bear steepening, more inflation, more debt, bullish defence and oil & gas stocks — those are the kind of things we are hearing about markets if Donald Trump wins the presidential race this November.
After the first debate went so badly for Joe Biden, and Trump later survived an attempted assassination, the odds on the former president winning for a second time have shortened a lot.
First of all, debt. We have to consider the fiscal outlook and, by most accounts, a Trump White House should mean more debt, which in turn would lead to higher bond yields and a steeper yield curve. Whilst there is less room for a repeat of his first-term fiscal expansion and tax cuts, which sent equities roaring higher, I think this remains the direction of travel for Trump 2.0. And other policies, such as tariffs, will be important. For instance, these could spark a rebound in US inflation, which could push the Fed to raise rates.
We have seen some bear steepening – the view is that Trump back in the White House is going to pile on more debt, cut taxes and drive growth, which should be positive for stocks and negative for bonds. Markets seem to be, tentatively at least, positioning for a more inflationary environment than we have now. Which might explain why the Fed is playing for time.
New Trump term may also signal higher tariffs, trade disruption
A Trump presidency would also mean higher tariffs and more trade disruption. He has called for blanket tariffs of 60 percent against Chinese goods, 10 percent against products from the rest of the world. These are in addition to existing tariffs he and Biden have imposed, including the 100 percent tariff on Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs). Trump has even suggested he could replace the Federal income tax by using tariffs.
More protectionism risks further fragmentation of commodity markets, disruption to supply and higher prices generally. This would further stoke inflationary pressures. Within this we could see some volatility in Natural Gas prices due to the twin risk of a) US LNG exports hitting the market and b) any easing in Russian sanctions that allow Russian gas back on the market.
Key trader macro themes – inflation, rates and the US dollar – would all likely go higher. This would have a big impact on lots of correlated assets – e.g. it could be very negative for a large swathe of emerging market currencies. The Mexican peso notably plunged yesterday.
Those likely to face headwinds from tariffs include Five Below (FIVE), Best Buy Co (BBY), Yeti Holdings (YETI), Nike (NKE), Starbucks (SBUX) and Apple (AAPL).
Defence stocks, energy firms in focus as markets consider Trump chances in November
Defence stocks such as Lockheed Martin (LMT), are seen by many as winners from a Trump focus on military spending. One caveat to this thesis would be a potential peace deal in Ukraine, though the likes of Thales (THLLY) and other European defence manufacturers could benefit from Trump pushing EU nations to spend more on defence.
Energy stocks could move, too. We know Trump is likely to be friendly to big oil and gas, potentially easing regulations and greenlighting LNG exports. This could benefit, for instance, New Fortress Energy (NFE), Cheniere Energy (LNG), Valero (VLO), among others. Downside risks may rise for European majors like Total (TTE) and Shell (SHEL).
Less obvious candidates may include Western Union (WU) — if Trump removes illegal aliens it would lower remittances abroad; or private prison group Geo (GEO), on the basis of more people in detention facilities.
Trump win may boost M&A activity — and DJT stocks
A Trump win could also result in Lina Khan leaving the FTC, which could spur more M&A activity and boost boutique advisory firms like Moelis (MC), PJT Partners (PJT), Evercore (EVR), and Houlihan Lokey (HLI). It could also impact Kroger (KR), which is trying to buy Albertsons (ACI), or Capital One (COF) and its bid for Discovery (DFS).
Among social media companies, Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) is one to watch for obvious reasons – yesterday it flew. But elsewhere check how Trump treats Section 230, which protects sites like Meta and X from liability for the content posted by users. Any change could hurt the likes of Meta (META), Reddit (RDDT), or Snapchat (SNAP).
Trump effect on US healthcare
Healthcare stocks such as UnitedHealth Group (UNH) and Humana also rallied on Monday as Trump’s odds of winning another four-year term jumped in the wake of the assassination attempt.
On June 28, a day after incumbent President Biden froze up during the first debate, RBC Capital said the Medicare Advantage regulations could ease under Trump, noting that “a second Trump term would ease regulatory and reimbursement headwinds weighing on the managed care stocks”.
Analysts also expect relaxation of Department of Justice scrutiny on the vertical integration between UNH's UnitedHealthcare managed-care division and its Optum health services arm. However, hospital operator HCA Healthcare (HCA) has been flagged as one that could suffer.
Finally, bitcoin has jumped a lot since the weekend with Trump seen broadly as more “crypto-friendly”. Bitcoin could also be a beneficiary if we get more macro uncertainty, trade policy upheaval, rates volatility, and other factors.
When considering shares, indices, forex (foreign exchange) and commodities for trading and price predictions, remember that trading CFDs involves a significant degree of risk and could result in capital loss. Note that trading cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets is restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice.
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