Equity rally continues as Nasdaq Comp notches record close

Nasdaq Composite hits first record since November 2021

The Nasdaq Composite notched its first closing record since November 2021, adding 0.90% to close at an all-time high at 16,091.92. Led by the tech rally, the S&P 500 index added 0.5% for another record close.

It capped a big month for Wall Street, with the Nasdaq up 6% and SPX rising 5% for March, the fourth straight monthly advances.

Core PCE inflation in line with forecasts

Inflation remains stubborn. Core PCE inflation in the U.S. increased 0.4% for the month and 2.8% year-on-year, which only underlines the case for the Federal Reserve to remain cautious in its approach to rate cuts.

But there had been a fear inflation would reaccelerate, so this was a bit of a green light for bulls. Still, signs of the kind of lumpy disinflation we are talking about that will keep the Fed on the sidelines for a while longer as long as the labour market is fine.

DAX Index, Tokyo hit fresh records

European stock markets took the cue from Wall Street and a generally upbeat Asian session to rise early on Friday. Frankfurt and London both rose by around 0.6% in early trade, with the FTSE 100 closing in on 7,700 again and Frankfurt’s DAX index moving beyond 17,800, hitting a fresh record. Tokyo also hit a fresh record overnight.

Here’s BofA on a topic I will be discussing in an upcoming Overleveraged podcast with David Buik – stay tuned!

US national debt rising $1tn every 100 days ($32tn to $33tn took 92 days, $33tn to $34tn 106 days, $34tn to $35tn will take 95 days); financing domestic bliss & overseas wars US budget deficit past 4 years = 9.3% of GDP…little wonder "debt debasement" trades closing in on all-time highs, i.e. gold $2077/oz, bitcoin $67734.

Bank of Japan backtracks inflation comments

Elsewhere, China PMI’s saw the official NBS number falling to 49.1 from 49.2 last time, the fifth straight month of contraction. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said it was too early to conclude that inflation was close to sustainably meeting their 2% inflation target, refuting some of the more hawkish comments from board member Takata the day before.

Bitcoin had another whacking great drop yesterday but is bid again this morning. BofA says crypto enjoyed $2.4bn weekly inflow, follows $1.2bn last week, $2.6bn week prior; crypto inflow annualizing at a record $44.7bn in 2024.

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