Los CFD son instrumentos complejos que comportan un riesgo elevado de pérdidas rápidas debido al apalancamiento. El 73,9% de las cuentas de inversores particulares pierden dinero al operar CFD con su proveedor. Es necesario que entienda el funcionamiento de los CFD y si se puede permitir asumir el alto riesgo de perder su dinero.
Week Ahead: Uber, Disney earnings and Bank of England
Welcome to your guide to the week ahead in the markets.
Ride-hailing app Uber reports its third quarter earnings on Monday after a rocky start to life on the stock market. Peer and rival Lyft recently reported better-than-expected numbers, but there are concerns Uber is not keeping pace. Revenues rose just 14%, the slowest ever, while losses climbed from $292 million to $656 million. Monthly users rose 30% to 99 million, with trips up 35%. Shares have rebounded in October from the post-IPO lows but is there any room left on the upside?
Bank of England, RBA meetings
Following the Fed’s rate cut last week, central bank focus switches to the UK and Australia. First up on Tuesday is the RBA, which cut rates again to a record low of 0.75% last month. Whilst markets don’t see another cut this time, the bias remains to ease. The RBA said it can see a ‘turning point’ in some economic data but added ‘an extended period of low interest rates will be required’. Governor Philp Lowe last week reiterated the RBA can cut again but pushed back on the prospect of negative rates.
On Thursday the Bank of England is similarly expected to leave rates on hold. Whilst they would like to be free to make their own call unhindered, the continued Brexit-related uncertainty is likely to mean rates stay on pause. Lately the outlook seems to be shifting towards, unofficially at least, more of an easing bias.
Much of the hype around Walt Disney is currently focussed on its upcoming Disney+ streaming service, which is set to launch this month. Guidance for the fiscal 2020 year will be of particular interest as it will show what impact the new revenue stream is expected to have on top and bottom lines.
Analysts are expecting DIS to post a sharp decline in earnings for the latest quarter, with EPS predicted down at $0.95 compared to Q3’s $1.35.
UK election campaign
Finally, on the political front we get a rest from Brexit as the UK General Election campaign kicks off this week. For sterling traders the polls will be the new headline risk as they try to assess the chances of the Conservative Party winning and managing to get the withdrawal agreement bill signed, sealed and delivered by Jan 31st.
|Pre-Market||November 4th||Ryanair – Q2 earnings report|
|Pre-market||November 4th||Credit Agricole – Q3 earnings report|
|After-Market||November 4th||Uber – Q3 earnings report|
|Pre-Market||November 5th||Imperial Brands – Q4 earnings report|
|Pre-Market||November 6th||Adidas – Q3 earnings report|
|07.00 GMT||November 6th||Softbank – Q2 earnings report|
|07.30 GMT||November 6th||Wirecard – Q3 earnings report|
|09.00 GMT||November 6th||BMW – Q3 earnings report|
|21.45 GMT||November 6th||QUALCOMM|
|Pre-Market||November 7th||Siemens AG – Q4 earnings report|
|After-Market||November 7th||Walt Disney – Q4 earnings report|
Coming up on XRay
Watch live or catch up on YouTube. Plus, if you subscribe via the MARKETSX platform, you can submit questions in real time.
|08.15 GMT||Every Day||European Morning Call|
|10.00 GMT||Nov 4th||Supply & Demand – Approach to Trading|
|16.45 GMT||Nov 5th||Asset of the Day: Oil Outlook|
|12.00 GMT||Nov 6th||Live Analysis: Midweek Lunch Wrap|
|19.00 GMT||Nov 7th||The Stop Hunter’s Guide to Technical Analysis – Part 10|
Key Economic Events
There’s a lot going on in the coming week, here are the events we to watch out for.
|00.30 GMT||Nov 4th||Australia Retail Sales|
|03.30 GMT||Nov 5th||RBA Interest Rate Decision and Statement|
|09.30 GMT||Nov 5th||UK Services PMI|
|15.00 GMT||Nov 5th||US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI|
|21.45 GMT||Nov 5th||New Zealand Employment Change / Jobless Rate|
|00.30 GMT||Nov 7th||Australia Balance of Trade|
|12.00 GMT||Nov 7th||BoE Monetary Policy Decision & Inflation Report|
|12.30 GMT||Nov 7th||BoE Carney Speech|
|00.30 GMT||Nov 8th||RBA Monetary Policy Statement|
|13.30 GMT||Nov 8th||Canada Employment Change and Unemployment Rate|
Week Ahead: Fed set to cut rates
Your essential guide to the week ahead
The Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to cut interest rates this week, but there are still big unanswered questions that would help the markets understand the longer-term plan.
1) Will the FOMC cut by 50bps or 25bps? Markets suggest a roughly 25% chance for a 50bps cut.
2) Is this an insurance cut or the start of a sustained easing cycle? While Jerome Powell has signalled a cut in July, it’s lot less clear whether we should expect more cuts are we progress through the latter part of 2019.
Earnings season continues and Apple is the main focus for traders this week.
Analysts are broadly bullish on Apple ahead of the results – check the Analyst Recommendations tool in the platform for more information.
Boris first week
Britain’s new prime minister enjoys his first full week at the helm. The market will be wondering if there is any likelihood for changes to Brexit deals and deadlines based on his initial talks with the EU. Sterling pairs should remain on edge.
Bank of England
The Bank of England is still shackled by Brexit – and all the related uncertainty – but it increasingly seems to be moving with the rest of the world. Instead of the next move likely to be a hike, it looks much more likely the central bank is leaning towards cutting interest rates. We’ll find out more on Thursday at noon, UK time.
Coming shortly after the Fed meeting these payroll numbers will be scrutinised as closely as ever. Job creation bounced back last month, dampening expectations for a 50bps cut – another strong print, combined with improving wage growth, may tell the market that the Fed is not under pressure to do any further easing
We’re in the thick of earnings season, so let’s look at the releases in the coming week:
|29th July||Ryanair – Q1 2020 Earnings|
|After-Market||30th July||Apple – Q3 Earnings|
|Pre-Market||30th July||Samsung – Q2 Earnings|
|Pre-Market||30th July||Pfizer Inc – Q2 Earnings|
|Pre-Market||30th July||Proctor & Gamble – Q4 Earnings|
|Pre-Market||30th July||Sony – Q1 2020 Earnings|
|30th July||Bayer – Q2 Earnings|
|Pre-Market||30th July||BP Plc – Q2 Earnings|
|Pre-Market||31st July||General Electric – Q2 Earnings|
|31st July||Airbus SE – Q2 Earnings|
|After-Market||31st July||Kraft-Heinz – Q2 Earnings|
|Pre-Market||31st July||Spotify – Q2 Earnings|
|13.00 BST07.00 BST||31st July||Fiat Chrysler – Q2 Earnings|
|31st July||BAE Systems Plc – Q2 Earnings|
|Pre-Market||1st August||Shell Plc – Q2 Earnings|
|07.15 BST||1st August||Rio Tinto – Q2 Earnings|
|Pre-Market||1st August||General Motors – Q2 Earnings|
|1st August||BMW AQ – Q2 Earnings|
|07.00 BST||1st August||Barclays Plc – Q2 Earnings|
|07.00 BST||2nd August||Royal Bank of Scotland – Q2 Earnings|
|2nd August||Berkshire Hathaway – Q2 Earnings|
|Pre-Market||2nd August||ExxonMobil Corp – Q2 Earnings|
|2nd August||BT Group Plc – Q1 202 Earnings|
Coming up on XRay this week. Tune in Live or watch on catch up.
|17.00 GMT||29th July||Blonde Markets|
|15.30 GMT||30th July||Asset of the Day: Bullion Billions|
|13.00 GMT||31st July||Asset of the Day: Indices|
|09.00 GMT||1st August||Bank of England special|
|12.30 GMT||2nd August||Nonfarm Payrolls LIVE|
Mark these events in your calendar this week:
|Tentative||30th July||Bank of Japan interest rate decision|
|01.30 GMT||31st July||Australia CPI inflation|
|18.00 GMT||31st July||FOMC interest rate decision|
|01.45 GMT||1st August||China Caixin manufacturing PMI|
|11.00 GMT||1st August||Bank of England interest rate decision|
|14.00 GMT||1st August||US ISM manufacturing PMI|
|01.30 GMT||2nd August||Australia retail sales|
|12.30 GMT||2nd August||Nonfarm payrolls|
Week Ahead: Earnings, ECB and US GDP to drive markets
The European Central Bank (ECB) provides the main headline risk event for traders as we look at whether policymakers are ready to pull the trigger on a fresh round of stimulus.Options are limited for the ECB but markets are increasingly betting it will choose to cut interest rates this year and may restart its bond-buying programme.
Estimates for US Q2 growth were revised up after better-than-expected retail sales figures last week. The question is whether there is enough strength in the quarterly growth numbers to make the market rethink just how much the Fed will cut rates. The first reading of the Q2 GDP estimate is due on Friday.
Earnings season hits full speed with a slew of corporate updates. Top of the bill is Facebook, which knocked it out the park in Q1. The consensus expected Q2 earnings per share (EPS) is $1.87, up 7.5% year-on-year. Sales are seen rising around 25% to $16.5 billion. But can advertising growth offset worries about regulation and higher costs?
Last month CEO Elon Musk said deliveries in the second quarter hit a record 95,200 cars, well ahead of the 91k expected by Wall Street. Key questions are whether achieving these production targets is leaving the business nursing additional costs, and whether management sticks to its guidance to return to profitability in Q3.
How much has the 737 MAX grounding affected sales and earnings? We should find out more about how much of a it Boeing expects to take when we get the second quarter numbers on Thursday. Boeing also has exposure to tariffs and has led to analysts downgrading the stock lately.
Earnings season continues this week so here’s your head’s up on the names to watch. The following companies are set to publish their quarterly earnings reports this week:
|Pre-Market||23rd July||Lockhead Martin Corp – Q2 Earnings|
|23rd July||Santander SA – Q2 Earnings|
|After-Market||23rd July||Visa Inc – Q2 Earnings|
|08.00 BST||23rd July||UBS – Q2 Earnings|
|After-Market||23rd July||Snap Inc -Q2 Earnings|
|Pre-Market||23rd July||Coca-Cola C – Q2 Earnings|
|After-Market (Paris)||24th July||LVMH – Q2 Earnings|
|24th July||AMD – Q2 Earning|
|12.00 BST||24th July||GlaxoSmithKline Plc -Q2 Earnings|
|After-Market||24th July||Facebook – Q2 Earnings|
|After-Market||24th July||Ford Motor Co – Q2 Earnings|
|24th July||Deutsch Bank – Q2 Earnings|
|Pre-Market||24th July||United Parcel Service – Q2 Earnigns|
|Pre-Market||24th July||Caterpillar Inc Q2 Earnings|
|After-Market||24th July||Tesla – Q2 Earnings|
|Pre-Market||24th July||AT&T Inc – Q2 Earnings|
|After-Market||25th July||Alphabet – Q2 Earnings|
|Pre-Market||25th July||Boeing Co – Q2 Earnings|
|After-Market||25th July||Starbucks Corp – Q3 Earnings|
|Pre-Market||25th Juy||Comcast – Q2 Earnings|
|07.00 BST||25th July||Unilever – Q2 Earnings|
|13.00 BST||25th July||TOTAL SA – Q2 Earnings|
|06.15 BST||26th July||Nestle – Q2 Earnings|
|Pre-Market||26th July||McDonalds Corp – Q2 Earnings|
|Pre-Market||26th July||Twitter – Q2 Earnings|
Don’t miss the expert analysis and opinion, live-streamed direct to your platform. Here are the highlights from XRay this week.
|17.00 GMT||22nd July||Blonde Markets|
|15.30 GMT||23rd July||Asset of the Day: Bullion Billions|
|19.00 GMT||23rd July||LIVE: Trader Training|
|11.45 GMT||25th July||ECB Decision LIVE|
Watch out for the biggest events on the economic calendar this week:
|From 07.15 GMT||24th July||Eurozone flash PMIs|
|13.45 GMT||24th July||US flash manufacturing PMI|
|08.00 GMT||25th July||German IFO report|
|11.45 GMT||25th July||ECB Interest Rate Decision|
|12.30 GMT||25th July||ECB Press Conference|
|12.30 GMT||26th July||US Q2 GDP first reading|
Week Ahead: Uber IPO incoming, Lyft reports earnings, Walt Disney awaits the Endgame
Coming up this week: one of the biggest IPOs in history as Uber goes public, communications and policy decisions from several leading central banks, as well as key company earnings reports.
Traders seem to be in a frenzy ahead of Uber’s highly-anticipated stock market debut, but will the poor performance of rival Lyft have tainted the shares? Earnings season may be slowing, but there are still some top companies left to update. The focus of much of the week for the FX market will be commentary from central bankers. Top tier UK and US data on Friday could be another source of volatility.
Uber: huge demand, high valuations, no profits
How much are markets willing to pay for a unicorn that sucks in cash and has yet to make a profit? Up until Lyft’s IPO, it seemed the answer was ‘a lot’. But despite opening over $15 above its IPO price, Lyft stock quickly tumbled. As happened to Snap Inc a couple of years back, a must-have stock quickly became a damp squib. Those IPO prices seem like distant memories for the languishing share price.
Ride-hailing giant Uber could be different. While also not profitable, the company dominates the domestic market, has a huge international presence, and boasts several other strings to its bow that Lyft doesn’t, such as Uber Eats and Uber Freight. The company is even working to develop flying taxis.
Uber will go public on Thursday 10th, potentially raising up to $10 billion for a valuation in excess of $80 billion. Has the debacle of Lyft shown that markets aren’t really that eager to hold a piece of a loss-making tech startup? Or is this an indicator that in the battle of the ride-hailers, traders are waiting to throw their backing behind Uber?
Forex: central banks dominate the week until Friday’s top tier data
The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its latest official cash rate decision during the Asian session on May 7th. This is just the start of a string of policy communications from some of the world’s biggest central banks. The Bank of Japan publishes its Summary of Opinions and policy meeting minutes in the following session. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand follows with its OCR decision. There’s also a press conference and inflation expectations from the RBNZ to watch.
The European Central Bank publishes the accounts of its latest policy meeting during Tuesday’s European session. As with most of these communications, the risks seem tilted to the downside. The Federal Reserve is still cautious, albeit less so following last week’s FOMC meeting, so it’s hard to see how any of the other world’s central banks could find much room for optimism. We’re certainly not expecting that from the BOJ or the ECB.
Markets are unlikely to be expecting bullishness from President Mario Draghi and colleagues. Even so, there are still downside risks to the euro if it seems that the Governing Council seems in favour of more quantitative easing. A more bullish case for EUR/USD notes the descending impulse wave pattern on the daily chart. Five complete waves in the trend suggesting a potential three wave correction which could push the pairing higher.
Meanwhile, the Aussie is braced for a potential rate cut. Nothing is a given, but there is a strong consensus amongst analysts that a downward move is imminent. Meanwhile, the RBNZ will likely signal that it intends to remain sitting on its hands for a long time to come. Perhaps frozen policy could be an upside for the Kiwi, with traders breathing a sigh of relief that the RBNZ isn’t planning on following the RBA on a more dovish trajectory.
False hope from UK growth data, US CPI could dash rate cut hopes further
US CPI figures wrap up the week, which could tilt the US monetary policy outlook ever-so-slightly back towards the hawkish side of the spectrum. A solid consumer price index reading, while not the Fed’s favourite measure of inflation, could give markets reason to expect a little more optimism at the next policy gathering.
The UK’s first quarter GDP print is also due on Friday. This could make interesting reading. While analysts generally agree that the UK economy is likely to slow this year, as Brexit uncertainty and softer global growth conditions weigh on output, companies have been busy stockpiling ahead of the UK’s departure from the EU. This flurry of activity could inflate the first-quarter reading. It’s already helped push some for the PMIs for the January-March quarter higher.
Equities: Lyft to chronicle losses, Disney to pave the way for Q3 strength
Earnings season may be winding down, but there are still some points of interest on this week’s calendar. BMW kicks things off with its Q1 earnings during Tuesday’s European session. The highlight, however, will be the after-market first-quarter results from Lyft.
It’s been a bumpy road for the ride-hailing company since its IPO. The stock has plummeted following the traditional debut surge to trend around 30% lower.
The issue of profitability is key. Lyft will undoubtedly report another large loss for the first quarter. Traders will want to know how quickly the company can slow the cash burn and when management envisions the company entering the black.
Lyft had better make some progress fast, or it could see itself becoming another Tesla – constantly battling the short sellers and limping from quarter to quarter.
There are a trio of euro stocks due on Wednesday: Siemens, Commerzbank, and Wirecard. After being hit by an accounting scandal over the past few weeks, Wirecard will be hoping to return the focus to its fundamentals and away from its business practices. A poor set of numbers could see Wirecard tumble, especially as there is no longer a ban on shorting the stock.
Walt Disney releases prequel to highly-awaited Q3 results
Walt Disney releases its Q2 figures after the US closing bell on Tuesday. The House of Mouse is riding high at the moment, boosted by the recent announcement of its long-awaited streaming service, and the storming box office success of the Avengers: Endgame, the studio’s latest Marvel superhero offering. With the record-breaking film having been released during the company’s fiscal third quarter (a period which also contains the hugely-successful Captain Marvel) management’s latest guidance should make for interesting reading.
Thursday brings fourth-quarter earnings from BT Group and AGMs from Adidas and Ford Motor Co.
Indices: S&P to retreat from highs as rate cut odds dwindle?
The S&P 500 hit a fresh record intraday high last week, as well as notching up a record closing high. The strong number of beats this earnings season (against a particularly low set of expectations) helped push markets that little bit higher.
But equities lost a key fundamental driver last week. The Federal Open Market Committee concluded that the US economy is on a pretty solid footing, even if it is lacking inflation and recent PMI’s have been softer than hoped.
This means the odds of a rate cut this year aren’t as high as the markets have been counting on. Indices were quick to undo some of their previous bullishness. President Donald Trump may be demanding a 1% cut to the federal funds rate and another round of quantitative easing, but the Fed won’t bow to such request and this has left the equity rally looking overextended.
OPEC Preview: oil in a bear market
December 5th, 2018
Production cut expected
OPEC and its allies convene in Vienna this week with expectations firmly favouring a supply cut in order to rebalance the market after the ramp in production seen ahead of the Iran sanctions. A cut in excess of 1m bpd seems assured, although it could be significantly higher than that. Anything up to 1.4m bpd seems anticipated, and therefore it may take more to significantly rally the market. A commitment to a longer and deeper cut will be required. Wire reports on Tuesday suggested a cut of at least 1.3m bpd is being worked on.
The meeting of the 26 OPEC and non-OPEC nations comes at a key moment for the market, with crude prices having slumped by around 20% or so over the course of October and November. The pace of that decline was startling and has undoubtedly forced a rethink of the increase in production we saw over the summer, particularly on the part of Saudi Arabia.
It’s not been alone: Saudi Arabia, Russia and the US have all been opening the taps this year. OPEC production in October hit the highest since December 2016 and was broadly flat in November. OPEC pumped 33.31m barrels in October, up 390k barrels from the month before. Saudi Arabian output is booming, climbing to a record 11m bpd. Undoubtedly this ramp cannot continue if the market is to rebalance given the declining expectations for demand growth.
Russian oil output hit a post-Soviet record high of 11.41 million bpd in October. However, this had dipped to 11.37 bpd in November. US production has surged to a record 11.475m bpd in September and is seen reaching 12.1m bpd next year (EIA). US production is now up 21% in the last year and the latest rise could mean more upward revisions to forecasts.
Donald Trump has repeatedly berated OPEC and others for trying to force up prices. Whilst there is pressure on the US-backed Saudi regime to acquiesce to demands to do nothing that would help lift prices, OPEC and its allies are set to push ahead. Although there are competing factions and priorities, no member wants a repeat of the collapse in prices four years ago.
US shale casts a long shadow. In particular, we must look at OPEC needing to act now to prevent a further squeeze on prices as more pipeline capacity comes on stream next year that would mean more US crude on the world’s markets. OPEC members are well aware that supporting prices is good for US shale producers, but they seem unwilling to go head to head again.
The question it leaves us with is to what extent OPEC is losing its relevance. Qatar may be a small player (approximately 2% of OPEC production), but it could suggest smaller suppliers are starting to lose faith in the Saudi-led cartel. Could it be the first domino? We must look at it in context of the regional powerplays. Whilst it may indicate a lack of consensus among members about cuts, it would be more likely to reflect the political tension between Qatar and its neighbours, in particular Saudi Arabia, which along with Egypt, the UAE and Bahrain is maintaining a trade embargo on the country. It would seem sensible for Qatar to distance its energy policy as much as possible from Saudi influence, particularly given its focus on natural gas over oil. It seems unlikely that Qatar’s decision will cast much of a shadow over the meeting or prevent an agreement.
Speculative positioning has turned south. CFTC figures show net longs down to their lowest in a year, down to 348k contracts by the beginning of November from 739k in February.
On the Brent daily chart, we see a firm bounce at the start of the week, with Brent breaking the downtrend resistance level and looking to push up to the 23.6% retracement of the recent down move at around $64.65. However yesterday’s failure to maintain any bullish momentum suggests there is little appetite at present for a pre-OPEC rally.