Adelanto semanal: Las actas de la FOMC y las NFP, protagonistas de la semana

Si bien el comienzo de la semana estaremos pendientes de los PMI de China, el calendario económico de EE. UU. acaparará la atención el resto de días, ya que se publicarán el PMI manufacturero del ISM, las actas de la FOMC y el informe de nóminas no agrícolas de junio.

PMI de China 

Le llega el turno a los últimos datos de los PMI de China; al ser los datos de PMI mensuales a nivel mundial que se publican en primer lugar, suponen el primer vistazo de los mercados a la evolución de las distintas coyunturas.

Actualmente, la recuperación en China puede peligrar a causa de nuevos brotes de Covid-19. Sin embargo, los últimos datos de los PMI servirán como un indicador acerca de cómo podría desarrollarse la situación en otros países, en concreto, en aquellos que, como China, aparentemente han contenido el virus y ya se centran más en reactivar sus economías.

Alemania y la inflación en la zona del euro 

En mayo, como era de esperar, los precios al consumo se contrajeron un 0,1 % en toda la zona del euro. Los datos de la inflación de esta semana podrían reflejar más descensos, algo previsible dado el tremendo colapso de la demanda, el aumento del desempleo y los estímulos lanzados por el Banco Central Europeo. La semana pasada, Fitch auguró que la inflación subyacente de la zona del euro se frenaría a lo largo de los próximos 18 meses, despidiendo el 2021 por debajo del 0,5 %.

Un periodo continuo de deflación no beneficiará a la economía, pero se espera que se produzca a corto plazo, por lo que la repercusión en el mercado de los datos del IPC ha sido, en cierta medida, menor últimamente.

Ventas minoristas en Alemania 

La actividad de los consumidores ha repuntado de forma repentina en EE. UU. y Reino Unido desde el alivio de las restricciones, ¿y en Alemania? En mayo, las ventas minoristas en EE. UU. ascendieron un 17,7 % y superaron las expectativas del mercado que preveían un aumento del 8 %. Por su parte, en Reino Unido se incrementó un 12 %, frente al 5,7 % previsto.

El comercio minorista alemán cayó un 5,3 % en abril —un dato mucho más favorable que la caída del 12 % que auguraban los analistas—; el resurgimiento de las ventas en línea contribuyó a frenar la velocidad del colapso. Se prevé que las ventas hayan experimentado un aumento del 2,5 % en mayo gracias a la reapertura de los comercios físicos, aunque este dato podría ser mucho mayor, al igual que ha ocurrido en EE. UU. y Reino Unido.

  1. UU.: sector manufacturero según el ISM 

El sector manufacturero estadounidense está encontrando muchos obstáculos en el camino hacia la recuperación de la crisis de la pandemia. El PMI de mayo publicado por el ISM aumentó tras el mínimo de más de una década registrado en abril, aunque se quedó medio punto por debajo de las predicciones del mercado. Se espera que junio traiga un repunte mucho más acusado; sin embargo, el PMI manufacturero publicado por IHS Markit la semana pasada no satisfizo las expectativas, ya que permanece en territorio negativo, a pesar de los datos positivos de la zona del euro y de Reino Unido.

Actas de la FOMC 

La última reunión de la FOMC supuso un duro golpe para los mercados, ya que sus proyecciones económicas, mucho más aciagas de lo previsto, aniquilaron la idea de que la recuperación en EE. UU. pudiera ser en «V». Los legisladores señalaron que los tipo de interés permanecerían en niveles próximos a cero hasta, al menos, 2022 y que la tasa de compras de activos se incrementaría en los próximos meses.

Las actas ofrecerán más información, aunque los mercados tienen un particular interés en el control de la curva de rendimientos (YCC), que puede que se erija en la próxima herramienta de políticas del que se valga la Fed para controlar los tipos. Aún no está claro cuándo se decidirá a recurrir a esta estrategia, pero las actas pueden ofrecernos algunas pistas.

Informe de nóminas no agrícolas de EE. UU. 

Como el 4 de julio este año es sábado, el festivo del Día de la Independencia en EE. UU. se traslada al viernes. Por lo tanto, el informe de nóminas no agrícolas (NFP) de junio se publicará el jueves.

Los datos del mes pasado desconcertaron con el aumento de 2,5 millones de puestos de trabajo frente a las previsiones que estimaban un descenso de 8 millones, lo que supone que la recuperación de EE. UU. puede ser más rápida de lo que se pensaba en un primer momento.

Por su parte, las últimas cifras de las solicitudes semanales de prestación por desempleo han sido decepcionantes, ya que, aunque los datos reflejan una caída constante de nuevas solicitudes, esta caída ha sido más moderada de lo previsto. ¿Puede que estos datos apunten a una cicatrización más permanente del mercado laboral? Y, en ese caso, ¿debemos priorizar las expectativas que afirman que las NFP seguirán publicando datos tan favorables?

Lo más destacado en XRay esta semana

Descubra toda la programación de formación y los análisis del mercado financiero.

07.15 UTC Daily European Morning Call
From 15.30 UTC 30-Jun Weekly Gold, Silver, and Oil Forecasts
17.00 UTC 01-Jul Blonde Markets
19.00 UTC 01-Jul Introduction to Currency Trading: Is it For Me?
12.25 UTC 02-Jul

US Nonfarm Payrolls: Live Market Analysis

 

Acontecimientos económicos clave

No se pierda las principales citas del calendario económico de esta semana:

12.00 UTC 29-Jun German Preliminary Inflation
23.30 UTC 29-Jun Japan Unemployment / Industrial Production
After-Market 29-Jun Micron Technology – Q3 2020
01.00 UTC 30-Jun China Manufacturing, Non-Manufacturing PMIs
06.00 UTC 30-Jun UK Finalised Quarterly GDP
30-Jun easyJet – Q2 2020
09.00 UTC 30-Jun Eurozone Flash CPI
12.30 UTC 30-Jun Canada Monthly GDP
14.00 UTC 30-Jun US CB Consumer Confidence
After-Market 30-Jun FedEx Corp – Q4 2020
01.45 UTC 01-Jul Caixin Manufacturing PMI
06.00 UTC 01-Jul Germany Retail Sales
Pre-Market 01-Jul General Mills – Q4 2020
Pre-Market 01-Jul Constellation Brands – Q1 2021
12.15 UTC 01-Jul US ADP Nonfarm Payrolls Report
14.00 UTC 01-Jul ISM Manufacturing PMI
14.30 UTC 01-Jul US EIA Crude Oil Inventories
18.00 UTC 01-Jul FOMC Meeting Minutes
01.30 UTC 02-Jul Australia Trade Balance
12.30 UTC 02-Jul US Nonfarm Payrolls (Friday is US Bank Holiday)
01.30 UTC 03-Jul Australia Retail Sales
All Day 03-Jul US Bank Holiday – Markets Closed

Adelanto semanal: Altas expectativas en torno a las reuniones de la FOMC

Como viene siendo habitual, podemos esperar un aluvión de aciagos datos económicos a lo largo de la semana que viene. Prestaremos atención a las cifras por si esconden claves acerca de la duración de la recuperación económica y también para comprobar si los pronósticos del colapso previsto en el 2T son tan funestos como parecen.

Los mercados de materias primas estarán muy pendientes de la reunión de la OPEP, aunque las últimas noticias apuntan a que lo que ocurra podría decepcionar a los operadores. La FOMC podría recuperar sus pronósticos económicos, así como arrojar algo más de luz sobre las perspectivas de las políticas con un viraje hacia una orientación prospectiva de la política monetaria.

¿Qué nos dicen los datos del sentimiento sobre la recuperación tras la Covid? 

Operadores, economistas, empresarios y legisladores de todo el mundo siguen sin saber con certeza cómo será la recuperación tras el fin del confinamiento. La mayoría aún alberga la esperanza de que se produzca un abrupto repunte, pero no parece que vaya a ser el caso.

Entre tanta incertidumbre, el sentimiento de empresas y consumidores se erige como un indicador útil de la valoración de la gente de a pie sobre el futuro. Como cabría esperar, hasta ahora las encuestas han sido profundamente pesimistas.

Sin embargo, actualmente asistimos a la reapertura de numerosas economías, así como a la relajación de las medidas de confinamiento y, en muchos países, las personas están volviendo a algo parecido a la vida normal. ¿Estos hechos se han traducido en una perspectiva más halagüeña o este primer paso simplemente ha puesto de manifiesto cuánto nos queda hasta alcanzar la recuperación?

¿Ampliará la OPEP los históricos recortes de producción? 

La semana pasada, la decisión de la OPEP de no posponer su reunión más allá del 9 de junio no sentó bien a los mercados petrolíferos. A principios de la semana, algunos informes apuntaban a que el cártel pretendía ampliar sus históricos recortes de producción durante varios meses o incluso hasta finales de año.

Estas esperanzas impulsaron el precio del petróleo, pero el crudo y el Brent quedaron a la deriva a finales de semana a medida que las perspectivas se ensombrecían. Finalmente, parece más probable que Arabia Saudí y Rusia acuerden ampliar los recortes históricos durante un único mes, en lugar de empezar a reducirlos a partir de julio. Sin embargo, las tensiones en torno a la falta de cumplimiento entre algunos de los miembros del cártel avivan las dudas acerca de la posibilidad de que no se alcance ningún acuerdo.

Datos de inflación de EE. UU.: ¿deflación sostenida a la vista? 

Esta semana se publicarán los datos de la inflación estadounidense. Los titulares de los últimos días han recogido noticias impactantes: en abril se produjo la mayor caída en el crecimiento de precios desde 2008, y la inflación subyacente registró el mayor descenso desde 1957, año en el que se empezó a registrar este parámetro.

Los legisladores no van a preocuparse demasiado por un solo mes de caídas de precio bruscas; la principal fuente de inquietud es que estamos en el umbral de un prolongado periodo de deflación. Los tipos de interés ya están al mínimo, pero otra lectura inferior a cero del crecimiento de los precios podría hacer que los mercados se pregunten cuánto tiempo dejará pasar la FOMC antes de llevar los tipos a terreno negativo.

Reunión de la FOMC: los mercados buscan pronósticos económicos y orientación prospectiva de la política monetaria 

El jueves, el Comité federal de mercado abierto anunció sus últimas decisiones en materia de políticas.

No obstante, esta vez los mercados esperarán que la FOMC proporcione alguna indicación. La reunión de abril, y sus correspondientes actas, no esbozaron ningún plan concreto acerca de cómo podría evolucionar la política monetaria en el futuro en respuestas al deterioro de las condiciones económicas. Los miembros del comité sopesaron establecer objetivos de desempleo e inflación, así como una fecha límite antes de la cual no se incrementarían los tipos.

El Resumen de proyecciones económicas probablemente vuelva esta semana después de que, en marzo, se dejara de publicar dado el elevado nivel de incertidumbre con respecto a las perspectivas económicas. Este hecho, junto con una orientación prospectiva de la política monetaria implícita, ofrecerá a los mercados una visión más precisa de la política de la Fed en el futuro.

El crecimiento y los datos de producción británicos condicionarán las expectativas del 2T 

El aluvión de datos de Reino Unido relativos a abril nos dará una idea del temido rendimiento del 2T. Ya se ha asumido que este trimestre será nefasto, pero los datos mensuales del PIB y de la producción industrial confirmarán si hasta los peores escenarios han sido tan terribles.

Se prevé que el PIB medio para el trimestre finalizado en abril se situé en el -12 %, con una caída del 2 % en abril. En términos mensuales, se prevé que el crecimiento se desplome un 24 %, mientras que la caída interanual se situará en torno al 29 %. La producción manufacturera probablemente haya descendido casi un 30 %. Nos encontramos inmersos en lo que se supone que es la peor parte, pero todavía nos preguntamos cuán fatídico será el balance de daños en la economía.

¿Todo despejado para la oferta en la nube de Adobe? 

Con el fin de la temporada de ganancias, la agenda corporativa está completamente vacía, aunque Adobe podría suponer una interesante novedad.

El software de la empresa está basado en la nube, para gran alivio de la mayoría de los negocios que dependen de él, pero cuyos empleados se encuentran confinados en sus hogares, lejos de sus equipos de trabajo. El hecho de que sus productos se comercialicen mediante un modelo de suscripción podría ayudar a mantener una relativa estabilidad en los ingresos; no obstante, como la mayoría de las empresas, es probable que Adobe informe de una merma en su actividad durante el trimestre.

Lo más destacado en XRay esta semana

Descubra toda la programación de formación y los análisis del mercado financiero.

07.15 UTC Daily European Morning Call
17.00 UTC 08-June Blonde Markets
From 15.30 UTC 09-June Gold, Silver, and Oil Weekly Forecasts
17.00 UTC 10-June FOMC Preview with chief market analyst Neil Wilson
14.45 UTC 11-June Master the Markets with Andrew Barnett

Acontecimientos económicos clave

No se pierda las principales citas del calendario económico de esta semana:

06.00 UTC 08-Jun German Industrial Production
08.30 UTC 08-Jun Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence
01.30 UTC 09-Jun AU NAB Business Confidence
09.00 UTC 09-Jun Eurozone Final Employment Change / Revised GDP (Q/Q)
00.30 UTC 10-Jun Westpac Consumer Sentiment
01.30 UTC 10-Jun China CPI
12.30 UTC 10-Jun US CPI
14.30 UTC 10-Jun US EIA Crude Oil Inventories
18.00 UTC 10-Jun FOMC Rate Decision
18.30 UTC 10-Jun FOMC Press Conference
Pre-Market 10-Jun Dollarama – Q1 2021
12.30 UTC 11-Jun US Unemployment Claims
14.30 UTC 11-Jun US EIA Natural Gas Storage
After-Market 11-Jun Adobe – Q2 2020
06.00 UTC 12-Jun UK GDP (M/M), Manufacturing/Industrial Production (M/M), Construction Output (M/M)
14.00 UTC 12-Jun Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment Index

Week Ahead: Central banks on tap, NFP faces massive Covid hit

The economic calendar is packed full of top-tier releases this week, starting with manufacturing PMIs from China and the US. The RBA, BOC, and ECB all announce their latest policy decisions – and, in the case of the ECB, potentially ruffle a few more feathers in Germany. And, of course, we have the latest US nonfarm payrolls report to round off the week. 

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI – does the headline reflect the story?

China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI slipped back into negative territory in April, missing market expectations of another print just above the 50 mark. A look at the sub-indexes painted a rather more messy picture than the headline number. 

New orders slumped for a third month and export orders dropped the most since December 2008. Order backlogs rose, while supplier delivery times improved and input costs fell on the collapsing oil prices, pushing the headline number higher. 

May’s reading is expected to hold just below 50 – but once again, the vastly different performance of those sub-indexes is likely where the true story will lie. It looks like Chinese industry has a lot further to go yet before growth returns properly. 

US ISM PMIs to stabilise

US manufacturing collapsed last month, with the index diving to 41.5 from 49.1 in March. Despite being the worst drop since April 2009, the reading was still better than market expectations of 36.9, although this was because of a surge in supplier delivery times. While usually a sign of a strong economy, deliveries were held up by supply shortages due to the Covid-19 pandemic. 

Things are expected to have stabilised in May, but getting back into growth territory (a reading above 50) could take a while; Oxford Economics doesn’t expect output losses to be recouped until 2021. 

The decline in non-manufacturing is expected to moderate slightly, with the index forecast to tick higher to 44.2 from 41.8. 

RBA, BOC, ECB interest rate decisions

The Reserve Bank of Australia is the first of three central banks to hold monetary policy meetings this week. Rates are already at a record low 0.25%, which is effectively zero, and the board has no appetite for taking them negative. 

ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures for June show markets are pricing in nearly 50-50 odds of a cut to zero, but many analysts think the RBA has done all it will do, and that rates will remain unchanged for two or three years. 

This week’s Bank of Canada rate announcement coincides with the start of Tiff Macklem’s tenure as governor. Senior deputy governor Carolyn Wilkins said recently that the BOC could look at adjusting its asset purchasing programme with the aim of stimulating the economy, rather than just enhancing the liquidity of financial markets, although policymakers may not be ready for such a move just yet.  

The European Central Bank is expected to leave rates unchanged, although the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) is likely to be extended and expanded. Christine Lagarde will face questions about Germany’s ruling on the ECB’s quantitative easing programme during the post-meeting presser. Read our full preview on the ECB monetary policy meeting here.

Last week Isabel Schnabel, a member of the ECB board who joined in January, shrugged off the ruling, suggesting it was for the Bundesbank and Germany’s government to resolve the issue. 

“I’m sure there is going to be communication between the Bundesbank and the German parliament and the German government, and one will have to find a solution,” Schnabel told the Financial Times last week. “If the ECB can be constructive in supporting that process, we will of course do so.” 

Australia quarterly GDP: the end of three decades of growth

First-quarter economic data is expected to show that the Australian economy contracted -0.8% on the quarter and -1.2% on the year. Australia is expected to fall into recession for the first time in three decades this year, with GDP dropping -10%. 

Last week, Prime Minister Scott Morrison outlined the government’s plans to help revive the economy, but he also warned that any recovery was likely to take between three and five years. 

Eurozone retail sales and Germany factory orders

The collapse in Eurozone retail sales is expected to have worsened at the start of Q2. Analysts are forecasting a month-on-month decline of -18.6% during April, after a -11.2% drop in March. Year-on-year sales are predicted to have cratered -24%. 

Germany’s April factory orders data will likely reveal some similarly painful numbers. Orders fell -15.6% in March and economists are expecting a -21.3% drop when the April data is published on Friday.  

US NFP – jobless rate to hit 20%?

After tanking -20.5 million last month in the worst drop on record, this week’s US nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show another decline in employment of up to -5 million. The jobless rate, which leapt to nearly 15% in April, is likely to print just shy of 20%. Economists expect unemployment will peak around 25%, although Goldman Sachs analysts have suggested it could climb higher. 

Join Markets.com chief market analyst Neil Wilson for live analysis of the market reaction to the US nonfarm payrolls report with our free webinar.

Heads-Up on Earnings 

The following companies are set to publish their quarterly earnings reports this week:

After-Market 02-Jun Zoom Video Communications – Q1 2021
Pre-Market 03-Jun Campbell Soup – Q3 2020
After-Market 04-Jun Broadcom – Q2 2020
After-Market 04-Jun Slack – Q1 2021
05-Jun Toshiba Corp – Q4 2019

Highlights on XRay this Week 

Read the full schedule of financial market analysis and training.

07.15 UTC Daily European Morning Call
From 15.30 UTC 02-June Gold, Silver, and Oil Weekly Forecasts
12.50 UTC 03-June Asset of the Day: Indices Insights
19.30 UTC 04-June Daily FX Recap and Looking Forward
10.00 UTC 05-June Supply & Demand – Approach to Trading

Key Economic Events

Watch out for the biggest events on the economic calendar this week:

01.45 UTC 01-Jun China Caixin Manufacturing PMI
14.00 UTC 01-Jun US ISM Manufacturing PMI
01.30 UTC 02-Jun Australia Company Operating Profits (Q/Q)
05.30 UTC 02-Jun RBA Interest Rate Decision
07.15 – 08.00 UTC 02-Jun Eurozone Member State Finalised Manufacturing PMIs
08.30 UTC 02-Jun UK Finalised Manufacturing PMI
01.30 UTC 03-Jun Australia GDP (Q/Q)
01.45 UTC 03-Jun China Caixin Services PMI
07.15 – 08.00 UTC 03-Jun Eurozone Member State Finalised Services PMIs
08.30 UTC 03-Jun UK Finalised Services PMI
14.00 UTC 03-Jun Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision
14.00 UTC 03-Jun US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
14.30 UTC 03-Jun US EIA Crude Oil Inventories
01.30 UTC 04-Jun Australia Retail Sales / Trade Balance
09.00 UTC 04-Jun Eurozone Retail Sales
11.45 UTC 04-Jun ECB Interest Rate Decision
12.30 UTC 04-Jun ECB Press Conference
14.30 UTC 04-Jun US EIA Natural Gas Storage
06.00 UTC 05-Jun Germany Factory Orders
12.30 UTC 05-Jun US Nonfarm Payrolls

Week Ahead: Walmart and Home Depot Earnings, UK April Jobless Claims, May PMIs

We may be reaching the tail end of earnings season, but there are still some eagerly awaited releases lined up this week. Highlights will be reports from Walmart and Home Depot; stock in these companies has seen strong bid even as the wider market has tanked. 

We also have the FOMC minutes, a host of PMIs, and jobless claims data from the UK for April. Here’s your full breakdown of the coming events you need to know about. 

Japan Q1 GDP estimate 

Preliminary Q1 GDP data for Japan is due early on Monday, but as with all Q1 growth data it will serve as the prelude to something much worse. The economy is expected to have contracted -1.2% on the quarter, after a -1.8% decline in the final three months of 2019. Annualised growth is expected to print at -4.6%, again a slowdown from the -7.1% drop recorded in 2019 Q4. 

Forecasts for Q2 expect a 22% decline, the worst since the end of the Second World War. Will the Q1 figures give us any indication of how accurate those estimates might be, or will markets ignore the data and wait for more clarity? 

How many UK jobs have been lost in lockdown? 

The UK reports jobless claims data for April, when the workforce suffered an entire month of lockdown. The number of people filing jobless claims grew by over 12,000 in March: April’s figure is likely to print around 650,000. Unemployment rate figures are also scheduled, but these cover March and so are extremely backwards-looking by this point. A little later on Tuesday morning, the Labour Productivity Index for the first quarter is expected to print at -2.6%. 

UK inflation set to collapse 

April UK inflation data will feel the impact of collapsing retail sales, shuttered businesses, climbing unemployment and furloughed workers. Annualised price growth is expected to slump from 1.5% in May to 0.2% last month, with prices predicted to shrink -0.7% on the month after stagnating in April. The core inflation rate is predicted to drop to 1% on an annualised basis and -0.3% on the month. The contraction in producer prices is predicted to have accelerated to -3.9% on the year, and to have doubled to -0.4% on the month. 

High hopes for Walmart, Home Depot earnings 

Markets think Walmart and Home Depot are well-positioned to weather the coronavirus pandemic. Both stocks are over 4% higher year-to-date at the time of writing, compared to a -13% drop for the S&P 500. Walmart actually hit record highs at the end of April. 

The Wall Street Journal recently reported that Walmart saw a 20% increase in sales during March alone. Markets clearly expect a lot from the leading retailers, but can Walmart and Home Depot deliver? 

Both Walmart and Home Depot have “Strong Buy” ratings according to our Analyst Recommendations tool. Walmart has an average price target of $132.79 which represents a 7% upside on prices at the time of writing. Home Depot has a target price of $238.15, a 4% upside. 

Lowe’s, Target, and Best Buy are amongst the other companies reporting this week. 

FOMC meeting minutes 

We already know a lot more about the current thinking of the Federal Reserve thanks to last week’s speech from chair Jerome Powell. The minutes of the meeting at the end of April could be moot: Powell’s speech gave away what would likely have been the headlines from the minutes, namely that it was likely more stimulus would be necessary, but negative interest rates are not something being considered at this time. 

Eurozone economic sentiment set to go negative again 

April’s ZEW Economic Sentiment surveys for the Eurozone and Germany unexpectedly leapt back into positive territory. Assessment of current conditions remained dire, but investors began to focus on recovery. 

But the reality of the recession that lies between where we are now and where we’re trying to get back to is expected to hit sentiment hard again this month, with the German reading forecast to plummet back to -14 and the Eurozone wide reading dropping to -10. 

UK PMIs headed lower, Eurozone set to bounce off lows 

This week we get the flash PMI readings for May. UK manufacturing is expected to drop to 26.6, while the services index will slip to 9. The overall composite PMI is expected to drop from 13.8 to 9.2. 

Manufacturing and services in the Eurozone and its member states, however, are expected to rebound from their lows as economies began relaxing lockdown measures. Germany’s manufacturing index is predicted to jump around 10 points to 45, while services is forecast to more than double to 37 points. Overall the composite index is expected to climb from 17.4 to 40. The Eurozone composite is expected to rise from 13.6 to 34. 

It’s worth remembering that these figures still represent a huge rate of contraction across all areas of the economy. The Eurozone economy may have bounced back from the initial shock of COVID-19, but there is still a long road ahead – and expectations for how long are getting bigger all the time.

Heads-Up on Earnings 

The following companies are set to publish their quarterly earnings reports this week: 

18-May Ryanair – FY 2020
Pre-Market 19-May Walmart – Q1 2021
Pre-Market 19-May Home Depot – Q1 2020
19-May Imperial Brands – Q2 2020
Pre-Market 20-May Lowe’s – Q1 2020
Pre-Market 20-May Target Corp – Q1 2020
Pre-Market 20-May Analog Devices – Q2 2020
20-May Experian – FY 2020
Pre-Market 21-May Medtronic – Q4 2020
Pre-Market 21-May Best Buy – Q1 2021
After-Market 21-May Intuit – Q3 2020
After-Market 21-May Ross Stores – Q1 2020
After-Market 21-May Agilent Technologies – Q2 2020
After-Market 21-May Hewlett Packard Enterprise – Q2 2020
After-Market 21-May NVIDIA – Q1 2021
22-May Deere & Co – Q2 2020

Highlights on XRay this Week 

17.00 UTC   18-May  Blonde Markets
18.00 UTC  18-May   The Ten Rules of Trading
 15.30 UTC 19-May   Weekly Gold Forecast
 18.00 UTC 19-May Reading Candlestick Charts: Trading Patterns and Trends
11.00 UTC  20-May Midweek Lunch Wrap

Key Economic Events

Watch out for the biggest events on the economic calendar this week:

23.50 UTC 17-May Japan Preliminary Quarterly GDP
01.30 UTC 19-May RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
06.00 UTC 19-May UK Claimant Count Change / Unemployment Rate
09.00 UTC 19-May Germany / Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment
06.00 UTC 20-May UK Inflation
12.30 UTC 20-May Canada Inflation
14.30 UTC 20-May US EIA Crude Oil Inventories
18.00 UTC 20-May FOMC Meeting Minutes
07.15 – 08.00 UTC 21-May FR, DE, Eurozone Flash Services and Manufacturing PMIs
08.30 UTC 21-May UK Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs
12.30 UTC 21-May US Jobless Claims
13.45 UTC 21-May US Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs
22.45 UTC 21-May New Zealand Quarterly Retail Sales
06.00 UTC 22-May UK Retail Sales
12.30 UTC 22-May Canada Core Retail Sales

Week Ahead: UK and Eurozone GDP, NZ Budget, Marriott earnings

Economic data at the moment tends to fall into one of two categories: 1) How bad did things get in Q1, and, 2) How quickly are they likely to get better? Everyone knows the Q2 data is where the real pain lies, but markets want an idea of where things stood before the effects of COVID-19 lockdowns really began to bite. 

To this end flash Q1 GDP figures from the UK, Germany, and the Eurozone this week will act as a primer ahead of data for the current quarter. The US has already reported its advanced GDP estimate for Q1, showing that the economy contracted 4.8% during the first three months of the year, compared to expectations of 4%. 

The UK economy is expected to shrink 4.4% on the previous quarter, the German economy by 2.8%, and the Eurozone by 3.8%. If the US data is any indication, these forecasts may not be bleak enough. 

The key question, though, is whether this weakness is the predicted impact of COVID-19 arriving earlier than expected, or a sign that the impact is worse than the already dire expectations. 

The US will post inflation and retail sales data, and the University of Michigan will publish its preliminary reading of its latest sentiment index. Australian releases this week include the wage price index and employment change and unemployment rate figures. 

China industry, retail sales and New Zealand Budget 

On the other end of the scale, Chinese industrial production and retail sales figures for April will give markets a vague idea of what an economy on the other side of lockdown looks like. It’s not an entirely accurate bellwether – China returned to work around the same time that Europe battened down the hatches. 

The shuttering of businesses across the West will damage manufacturing demand in Asia. Industrial production is expected to drop 4.2%, compared to 1.1% drop in March. Retail sales had cratered nearly 16% in February. The unemployment rate is expected to tick higher to 6.3% from 5.9%. 

Also on the postCOVID front, the New Zealand government will hand down its latest Budget release this week. Finance Minister Grant Robertson has already laid out his strategy in a prebudget speech (delivered via video link, of course): respond, recovery, rebuild. 

Particularly interesting is that Robertson says this will be a chance to not just rebuild the economy, but rebuild it better. Will other finance ministers around the globe be looking to reshape their economies over the coming months and years, or simply get the train back on the rails? The notion could drastically change what markets should expect from the coming years. 

Earning season: Marriott, Cisco, Tencent 

Marriott earnings are due before the market opens on the 11thThe hotel giant recently raised $920 million in new cash through its credit card partners. Revenue per available room was down 60% during March. 

The stock has a “Hold” consensus with a 19% upside (based on the May 6th closing price) according to our Analyst Recommendations tool. Hedge funds has sold shares in the previous quarter, while insiders have snapped up the stock. The latest research on the stock from Thompson Reuters is available to download in the Marketsx platform.

Marketsx stock sentiment tools: Marriott International Inc (MAR – NASDAQ)

Cisco reports after the market close on May 13th. While analysts rate the stock a “Buy”, hedge funds dumped 83 million shares in the last quarter, with company insiders selling over 9 million in the last three months. The latest research on the stock from Thompson Reuters is available to download in the Marketsx platform.

Marketsx stock sentiment tools: Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO – NASDAQ)

Tencent Holdings, Sony, and Wirecard also report this week.

 

Heads-Up on Earnings 

The following companies are set to publish their quarterly earnings reports this week: 

Pre-Market 11-May Marriott – Q1 2020
11-May Bridgestone Corp – Q1 2020
05.00 UTC 12-May Allianz – Q1 2020
12-May Vodafone Group – Q4 2020
Pre-Market 13-May Tencent Holdings – Q1 2020
After-Market 13-May Cisco – Q3 2020
13-May Sony Corp – FY 2019/20
14-May Wirecard – Q1 2020
14-May Astellas Pharma – Q4 2019

Highlights on XRay this Week 

07.15 UTC   Daily      European Morning Call 
09.00 UTC   Daily   Earnings Season Daily Special 
 15.30 UTC 12-May   Weekly Gold Forecast
12.50 UTC 13-May Indices Insights
18.00 UTC  14-May BlondeMoney Gamma Special

Key Economic Events 

Watch out for the biggest events on the economic calendar this week: 

23.50 UTC 10-May Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions
01.30 UTC 12-May China CPI
07.00 UTC 12-May UK Preliminary Quarterly GDP
12.30 UTC 12-May US CPI
01.30 UTC 13-May Australia Wage Price Index (Q/Q)
03.00 UTC 13-May RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
14.30 UTC 13-May US EIA Crude Oil Inventories
01.30 UTC 14-May Australia Employment Change / Unemployment Rate
02.00 UTC 14-May New Zealand Annual Budget Release
12.30 UTC 14-May US Jobless Claims
14.30 UTC 14-May US EIA Natural Gas Storage
02.00 UTC 15-May China Industrial Production / Retail Sales
06.00 UTC 15-May Germany Preliminary GDP (Q1)
09.00 UTC 15-May Eurozone Preliminary GDP and Employment Change (Q1)
12.30 UTC 15-May US Retail Sales
14.00 UTC 15-May Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment Index

Week Ahead: RBA and BoE, Disney Earnings, US NFP

Expect policy decisions from the RBA and BoE, a host more earnings reports, the US nonmanufacturing PMI, and of course the highly anticipated/dreaded April nonfarm payrolls report. Keep track of the biggest market-moving events with the Events Calendar in the Marketsx trading platform. 

Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision 

Data is tentatively showing that lockdown measures in Australia might have succeeded in flattening the curve of infections, and several states have already started relaxing social distancing rules.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has previously stated that it believes the economy will begin to rebound once the outbreak was contained, therefore it seems unlikely we will be getting any further stimulus announcements as a result of this week’s meeting. It’s too early to expect the board to start tightening again, but we could see some comments regarding plans to begin tapering the quantitative easing programme. 

Regeneron earnings 

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals is one of the leading companies in the race to find treatments and a vaccine for COVID-19. The stock is up 40% since the start of the year, and is a constituent of our Corona BlendAnalysts are expecting EPS of $5.99 per share – growth of 34.6% on the year. Revenue is forecast up 16% from the same period a year ago at $1.99 billion. 

US ISM Nonmanufacturing PMI 

Last month the US ISM Nonmanufacturing PMI fared much better than expected, clocking in at 52.5 versus the consensus forecast of 43.0. Companies reported a jump in supplier deliveries, with the subindex leaping to 62.1 versus 52.4 the previous month. 

Digging further into numbers, however, it’s clear to see that this helped mask wider weakness. The employment index recorded the largest drop since 2008, tumbling from 55.6 to 47.0, and the business activity index dropped almost 10 points to 48.0. New export orders and imports also collapsed.

April’s report is likely to see the headline number more accurately reflecting the weakness in the sub-indices – some forecasts suggest a drop to as low as 32.0. 

Walt Disney earnings 

Disney’s latest earnings report will be more of a preview than the main event. The company’s second-quarter period ends just a couple of weeks after social distancing measures and business closures were enforced. Like so much of the current data and reports, the rule is to expect bad news now, and brace for even worse to come. 

Business closures and social distancing will have hit Disney from all directions, forcing closures of its parks, curtailing or delaying theatrical releases of its latest films, and hurting demand in its retail stores.

The effect has clearly been significantthe company has already announced that it would slash executive salaries. 

The one positive in the report is likely to be the strong performance of the company’s streaming service, Disney+. The service enjoyed a strong launch, and demand is likely to have been bolstered even further thanks to global lockdowns. 

Guidance for the next quarter won’t be able to answer all investor’s questions – such as whether parks will be able to reopen in time for the busy summer season – but will give details on how the company plans to endure these punishing conditions until the economy gets back to something that vaguely resembles normality. 

PayPal 

PayPal stock has been one of the most resilient of those belonging to the payment processing industry. The company is likely to benefit from a surge in online shopping and demand for online services.

However, PayPal has also announced various measures to support its smaller partners, such as deferring business loan payments and waving certain fees for small business customers who are most affected by the impact of COVID-19. This will hit the company’s bottom line and revenue growth is expected to be negative for the quarter.

Bank of England interest rate decision 

The Bank of England faces the same situation as the Fed and ECB – interest rates are already as low as policymakers are willing to go (for the time being, at least), so it’s unlikely we will see any change to the base rate on Thursday. We could see an increase in the size of the asset purchasing programme, however, or alterations to its short-term repo operations.

The BoE also publishes its latest Inflation Report, which will detail the expected hit to the UK economy from the coronavirus pandemic.  The latest decision and report will be announced at 06.00 UTC on Thursday May 7th, instead of the usual time of 11.00 UTC.

Nonfarm payrolls 

Last month, the nonfarm payrolls report showed a drop of 701,000 jobs in March. The unemployment rate leapt past expectations to 4.4%. The market reaction was muted, however, because everyone from economists to traders knew that there was far worse to come. 

Since the 21st of March, over 25 million Americans have filed jobless claims. Marchs NFP may have been the worst report since 2009, but the numbers will seem trifling compared to those reported for April. 

We’ve seen recently that markets are able to shrug off backward-looking data even if the readings are dire. It was the fear of numbers like these, after all, that saw stock markets posting record declines in Q1.

It is also worth noting that, since late March, the number of Americans filing for new jobless claims has fallen each week, suggesting the worst of the job losses may be behind us. 

But there is a risk that the numbers will be so appalling that markets will have to rethink their already bearish forecasts. 

Heads-Up on Earnings 

The following companies are set to publish their quarterly earnings reports this week: 

Pre-Market  05-May  Thompson Reuters – Q1 2020 
Pre-Market  05-May  Regeneron Pharmaceuticals – Q1 2020 
12.00 UTC  05-May  BNP Paribas – Q1 2020 
By 13.00 UTC  05-May  Fiat Chrysler – Q1 2020 
After-Market  05-May  Walt Disney – Q2 2020 
After-Market  05-May  Activision Blizzard – Q1 2020 
After-Market  05-May  Prudential Financial – Q1 2020 
After-Market  05-May  Occidental Petroleum – Q1 2020 
Pre-Market (Europe)  06-May  BMW – Q1 2020 
  06-May  Credit Agricole – Q1 2020 
  06-May  Societe Generale 
  06-May  Shopify – Q1 2020 
Pre-Market  06-May  General Motors – Q1 2020 
After-Market  06-May  PayPal – Q1 2020 
After-Market  06-May  T-Mobile US – Q1 2020 
After-Market  06-May  Lyft – Q1 2020 
  07-May  BT Group – Q4 2020 
Pre-Market  07-May  Wheaton Precious Metals – Q1 2020 
  08-May  Siemens – Q2 2020 

 

Highlights on XRay this Week 

07.15 UTC   Daily   European Morning Call 
09.00 UTC   Daily   Earnings Season Daily Special 
10.00 UTC   May 6th  Live Market Analysis with Neil Wilson 
12.20 UTC   May 8th  Platform Walkthrough 
12.30 UTC   May 8th  US Nonfarm Payrolls Live 

 

Key Economic Events 

Watch out for the biggest events on the economic calendar this week: 

08.15 – 09.00 UTC  04-May  Finalised Eurozone Member / Bloc Manufacturing PMIs 
04.30 UTC  05-May  Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision 
14.00 UTC  05-May  US ISM Nonmanufacturing PMI 
08.15 – 09.00 UTC  06-May  Finalised Eurozone Member / Bloc Services PMIs 
14.30 UTC  06-May  US EIA crude Oil Inventories 
01.30 UTC  07-May  Australia Trade Balance 
01.45 UTC  07-May  Caixin Services PMI 
10.00 UTC  07-May  EU Economic Forecasts 
06.00 UTC  07-May  Bank of England Interest Rate Decision 
12.30 UTC  07-May  US Jobless Claims 
01.30 UTC  08-May  Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Statement 
12.30 UTC  08-May  US Nonfarm Payrolls / Unemployment Rate 

Week Ahead: Bumper week with FOMC, ECB, FAANGS & GDP

Welcome to your guide to the week ahead in the markets. Remember you can now find all the key events affecting the markets in our new Events Calendar in the platform.

European Central Bank rate decision

Last week ECB president Christine Lagarde allegedly told EU leaders during a private video summit that the bloc could be facing a drop in GDP of up to 15%, and that their efforts to contain the outbreak have been both too little and too late. Monetary policy can only go so far, but the ECB does still have room to manoeuvre. Expansion of QE will likely be the first port of call if policymakers decide more needs to be done, but minutes from the March 18th meeting show that cutting rates was floated, too.

FOMC decision – has the Fed got any ammunition left?

What’s left for the Federal Reserve to do? Rates have been slashed to zero, and that’s where futures markets see them staying well into 2021 at least. And it’s hard to announce more QE when you’ve already committed to unlimited asset purchases. The key question is what the FOMC has left in reserve in case its vast stimulus measures aren’t enough. Will policymakers set negative rates? Will they buy corporate stocks? Will they explicitly target yields on government bonds? Markets will be looking for reassurance that policymakers still have plenty of ammunition left. 

Bumper week of earnings with Apple, Alphabet, Facebook reporting 

Netflix has already reported earnings, but this week sees the rest of the FAANG group offering up their quarterly figures. Tesla and Microsoft are also amongst the heavy hitters providing updates this week. 

US, Eurozone GDP 

We’ve seen piecemeal evidence of the impact COVID-19 has had on the US and Eurozone economies thanks to industrial data, PMIs, and business sentiment figures. But now it’s time to get the full picture, as the US and Eurozone will both publish estimates of Q1 growth. It was initially believed that moderate growth in January and February would have softened the blow from social distancing and widespread lockdowns that went into effect in March. Now the consensus is that the recession expected in Q2 arrived much earlier. Estimates vary wildly, but no matter how dire the results, the figures for Q2 are likely to be way worse.

Heads-Up on Earnings

After-Market   28-Apr   Alphabet – Q1 2020  
After-Market   29-Apr   Microsoft – Q3 2020  
After-Market   29-Apr   Facebook – Q1 2020  
After-Market   29-Apr   Tesla – Q1 2020  
After-Market   30-Apr   Apple – Q2 2020  
After-Market   30-Apr   Amazon – Q1 2020 

Key Events

03.00 UTC   28-Apr   BOJ Rate Decision & Outlook Report  
07.00 UTC  28-Apr  Spanish Unemployment Rate Q1 
14.00 UTC   28-Apr   US CB Consumer Confidence  
01.30 UTC   29-Apr   Australia Quarterly CPI  
12.00 UTC   29-Apr   Germany Preliminary CPI  
12.30 UTC   29-Apr   US Advance GDP QoQ  
14.30 UTC   29-Apr   US EIA Crude Oil Inventories  
18.00 UTC   29-Apr   FOMC Rate Decision  
09.00 UTC   30-Apr   Eurozone Flash GDP  
11.45 UTC   30-Apr   ECB Rate Decision and Statement  
12.30 UTC   30-Apr   US Initial Jobless Claims  
14.30 UTC   30-Apr   US EIA Natural Gas Storage 

Week Ahead: Covid-19 earnings season, Amazon & Netflix to report

Amazon surged to a record high last week as markets bet that the company is well positioned to weather the coronavirus pandemic. Lockdown has forced even more consumers to switch to online shopping, and the surge in demand has seen Amazon go on a huge hiring spree, adding 100,000 new workers in March and announcing plans for another 75,000 hires. Cowen Analyst John Blackledge believes Amazon may have witnessed a surge in demand during March equivalent to its annual Prime Day members sale.

The tedium of lockdown is likely to have driven up subscription rates for its video and music streaming services and its Kindle library as well. Guidance will show how sticky Amazon expects these new customers to be once lockdown measures are lifted.

Remember, you can follow the biggest earnings season stories with our daily coverage on XRay.

Netflix earnings

Streaming service Netflix is expected to reveal a huge surge in subscriber numbers when it reports earnings this week. Expectations that Netflix will continue to see its popularity surge over the coming months drove the stock to a new record high last week. Even after lockdown is over, the consumer shift towards streaming services is likely to remain, as social distancing and fear over a resurgence in COVID-19 cases keeps people away from cinemas – and going outdoors in general.

UK and US jobless data

There are plenty of predictions for the impact of the coronavirus pandemic upon the world’s leading economies, but markets continue to be hounded by fears that these might not be pessimistic enough. More labour market data from the UK and US this week could heighten or assuage those concerns.

In the UK, thanks to the government’s pledge to pay the wages of furloughed workers, the unemployment rate isn’t expected to climb more than a percentage point during 2020. In the US, economists believe 20 million Americans will file new jobless claims during April. A sharper or softer rise than expected in either of these metrics will cause markets to reprice their expectations that these forecasts will be met or exceeded.

Will markets focus on shape of recovery as PMIs slump?

Business activity across the Eurozone and the UK plunged to record lows last month, and we know there’s more bad news to come. The Eurozone composite could drop as low as 20 during April, with the UK reading predicted to slump to 21. The real question is whether markets believe the recovery from this downturn will be a rapid one – confidence in a sharp pullback could soften any negative reaction to another round of gloomy PMIs, assuming markets are in an optimistic mood.

Week Ahead: All eyes on US nonfarm payrolls

US nonfarm payrolls

US nonfarm payroll data for September rounds off the week. The figures released last month smashed expectations after clocking in at 266k versus expectations of a 180k print. Average hourly earnings missed expectations on a month-by-month basis, but annualised growth came in above forecasts at 3.1%. Forecasts this time around are for a 168k increase in payrolls and 0.3% wage growth.

UK services PMI

Another dose of UK economic data, following on from last week’s reading that showed the second-worst pace of contraction for the manufacturing sector since 2012 in December. November’s reading showed the service sector had slipped back into contraction, but business optimism was at a four-month high. Were companies right to be feeling more positive?

Costco December sales release, Walgreens earnings

December is a make or break month for many retailers. With Costco being one of the few major retailers to still issue monthly trading updates, the December report will be closely watched as a gauge for consumer activity over the key shopping season.

Meanwhile, this week also sees Walgreens Boots Alliance, Constellation Brands, Bed Bath & Beyond, and Acuity Brands reporting earnings.

Corporate Diary

Jan 8th – Walgreens Boots Alliance – Q1 2020
Jan 8th – Constellation Brands – Q3 2020
Jan 8th – Bed Bath & Beyond – Q3 2020
Jan 8th – Costco – December Sales Release
Jan 9th – Acuity Brands – Q1 2020

Key Economic Events

(All times GMT)
09.30 GMT 06-Jan UK Services PMI
10.00 GMT 07-Jan Eurozone Flash CPI Estimate
15.00 GMT 07-Jan US ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite PMI
00.30 GMT 09-Jan Australia Trade Balance
00.30 GMT 10-Jan Australia Retail Sales
13.30 GMT 10-Jan US Nonfarm Payrolls / Average earnings

Week Ahead: UK General Election plus FOMC, ECB, Aramco IPO

General Election

British voters head to the polling booths on Thursday with the result critical to the future of Brexit, the economy and by extension, UK equities and sterling. Polls have consistently shown the Conservatives are heading to a comfortable majority, but a last-ditch surge by Labour is not out of the realms of possibility. Follow our election coverage daily on XRay.

Final FOMC meet of the year

The last FOMC meeting of the year is not expected to produce any change in the fed funds rate, but it will be another chance to see how close the Fed is to further cuts having signalled a pause to its easing cycle when it cut rates for the third time in succession in October. Lately it’s made it pretty clear that it would require a significant and sustained rise in inflation to warrant a hike, whilst there have even been reports that the Fed is thinking about changing its 2% inflation target to allow inflation to run even higher.

Saudi Aramco to start trading

The bookbuilding is complete and the price has been set – trading on Aramco shares on the Tadawul is expected to start this week. After the OPEC meeting last week and following concerns about valuations, this will be the largest and most hotly anticipated IPO in history. Our Aramco Grey Market is still open for new orders.

First ECB meeting for Lagarde

The first outing for Christine Lagarde as the chief of the European Central Bank (ECB) will be a closely-watched affair. Whilst markets do not expect the Governing Council to back any changes to rates or QE, the commentary from Ms Lagarde in the press conference will be picked over in fine detail for clues about her leanings and what we can expect from the ECB over the coming years.

Corporate Diary

Dec 12th – TUI full year results
Dec 12th – Dixons Carphone interim results
Dec 12th – Adobe Q4 2019
Dec 13th – Balfour Beatty trading update

Key Economic Events

(All times GMT)
Dec 9th – Tentative – China trade balance
Dec 10th – 00:30 GMT – Australia NAB business confidence
Dec 10th – 01;30 GMT – China CPI inflation
Dec 10th – 09:30 GMT – UK GDP, manufacturing production
Dec 10th – 10:00 GMT – German ZEW economic sentiment
Dec 10th – 23:30 GMT – Australia Westpac consumer sentiment
Dec 11th – 13:30 GMT – US CPI inflation
Dec 11th – 19:00 GMT – FOMC statement, fed funds rate
Dec 11th – 19:30 GMT – FOMC press conference
Dec 12th – 08:30 GMT – Swiss National Bank policy rate
Dec 12th – 12:45 GMT – ECB interest rate, policy statement
Dec 12th – 13:30 GMT – ECB press conference
Dec 12th – All day – UK General Election
Dec 13th – 13:30 GMT – US retail sales
Dec 14th – Tentative – US Treasury Currency Report (currency manipulators report)

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