Tesla Battery Day primer: Can Musk deliver as TSLA rallies on event hype?

Tesla Battery Day primer

  • Battery Day event scheduled for Sep 22nd
  • Signs of speculative buying ahead of event
  • Elon Musk hints at more energy dense batteries

Investors are charged up with excitement ahead of Tesla’s Battery Day event. Shares have rallied about 25% in the last week after the stock tapped on the 50-day simple moving average following some heavy selling in the middle of the Nasdaq’s early September pullback.

This of course followed disappointment at missing out on S&P 500 inclusion, and some very aggressive bid that took place in and around the stock split. So is Battery Day all hype, or is there something to it?

Tesla’s 2020 annual meeting of stockholders will be held on Tuesday, September 22, 2020, at 13:30 Pacific Time. Immediately after this meeting, Tesla will hold the Battery Day event.

CEO Elon Musk, in his usual caution, said in January that the event will ‘blow your mind’. Recently he toned it down a bit, teasing ‘many exciting things’. Whilst we should always take his pronouncements on Twitter with a pinch of salt, clearly there is a high degree of expectation and speculation – and speculative buying of TSLA stock – taking place in the run-up to the event.

Batteries matter

To deliver on its EV promise, Tesla needs to own the battery space. Without this, it’s not so different to an OEM. Musk commented on this at Tesla’s Q4 2019 earnings call in January, explaining that in order to ramp up Model Y production, introduce the Cybertruck and launch the Semi electric truck, a lot more batteries would be needed.

“So, the thing we’re going to be really focused on is increasing battery production capacity because that’s very fundamental because if you don’t improve battery production capacity, then you end up just shifting unit volume from one product to another and you haven’t actually produced more electric vehicles,” Musk said.

And whilst Tesla has a lead in the powertrain stakes, traditional players may catch up. “It’s worth noting that the Model S has like a 100 kWh pack, the [Porsche] Taycan has like a 95 kWh pack. The Model S is steadily approaching 400 miles of range. The Taycan has 200 miles of range. So we must be using that energy pretty efficiently, and the powertrain is a big part of that,” Musk added in January.

Whilst battery production is one thing, making the batteries more efficient is quite something else. Tesla’s acquisition of Maxwell, an ultra-capacitor manufacturer and battery technology business based in San Diego, is a considerable factor.

What to expect from Tesla’s Battery Day

My expectation is that Musk is about to announce if not a leap then a progression in battery technology that brings EV costs down to, or close to, traditional automobiles. It would be a surprise if Tesla were not able to say it has made further progress on batteries that are more energy dense and have a longer life.

We note for example, that on August 24th this year Musk said battery cells of 400 Watt hours per kilogram (Wh/kg) with a high cycle would be possible in volume within 3 to 4 years, way beyond the current 260 Wh/kg in the Model 3, which could indicate knowledge of some improvement coming in the Tesla batteries.

There has also been speculation that Tesla may unveil “silicon nanowire anode” technology that can greatly increase battery density and cell life. All of this remains speculation, of course.

If Tesla can both lower costs and increase battery energy density and life, it would be a significant step forward for the company and further cement its lead in the EV space. However, given the recent rampant speculation on the stock and Musk’s capacity to somewhat overstate his case, there is a considerable risk of a buy-the-rumour, sell-the-fact trade.

Tesla Stock Signals

Whilst client flows remain positive (87% bullish), analysts remain downbeat – the average price target of $300 vs the current $450 for the stock implies a 34% downside. We also note that hedge funds have been decreasing their holdings.

Baillie Gifford, one of the top shareholders, recently reduced its stake as the holding approached fund limits, but also because of fears that valuations had just got silly. Our insider signals tool also delivers a sell signal on the stock.

Pound at 6-week low, European stocks stabilise but risk sentiment fragile

Tech stocks bled heavily again for a third straight day as trading resumed on Wall Street following the Labor Day weekend. Tesla slumped a whopping 21% to notch its worst day ever. The other major tech giants also dropped heavily as the Nasdaq fell 4% and entered correction territory – down 10% from its recent peak.

Whilst this began as more of a technical correction within tech following the astonishing ramp in August than a broad risk-off move, it is nonetheless bleeding into the broader market and dragged down the majority of stocks. US benchmark yields have retreated and oil prices have rolled over.

SPX not far behind after Nasdaq enters correction territory

There was some rotation going on – Disney, Nike, McDonald’s, Ford and GM rose – but the S&P 500 still declined almost 3% and is not so far off correction territory itself. On the whole there is a sense that this selloff represents that sentiment has become too exuberant and needed to correct.

We may expect the US market now to chop in W-pattern over the coming months and follow the path taken by European equities since June with the loss of momentum in the economic recovery and US election risks likely to become more visible in equity markets.

Asian equities fell with the weak US handover. European stocks opened a little bit higher in early trade but risk sentiment appears very fragile. The FTSE 100 is enjoying the pound’s distress with heavyweight dollar-earners like BP, Shell, Unilever and British American Tobacco among the best risers.

In dollar terms the market is flat. The index got a confidence boost as Barclays raised their call on UK equities to ‘market-weight’ from ‘underweight’.

Increase in coronavirus cases weighs on recovery outlook

Nevertheless, investors are becoming worried again about rising Covid cases across many developed markets which threaten the trajectory of the recovery and may well weigh on demand in a number of sectors.

The evidence is evident in a couple of markets. Oil prices have rolled over with WTI dropping under $37 to hit its weakest since the middle of June. Another tell that this tech-led selloff is more than just a simple technical correction are bond yields.

US 10-year Treasury yields logged their biggest drop in a month, sliding from 0.72% Friday to 0.682%. Despite the move in yields gold prices remain resolutely stuck to the $1930 anchor having tested $1906 and the 50-day SMA yesterday.

There is also some negative headlines around work on a vaccine which may weigh on risk a touch, or at least provide algos with a sell signal. AstraZeneca shares fell after it was forced to pause clinical trials of its Covid-19 vaccine candidate after a participant in the study was taken ill.

Such are the problems with pinning hopes on a vaccine for a return to normal to be possible. The worry is that while we have all kind of assumed that one company will come up with vaccine later this year, it’s not going to be plain sailing.

Tesla tumbles after S&P 500 snub

Tesla shares got well and truly smoked after it was not added to the S&P 500, to some surprise. Tesla stock hadn’t traded below its 50 day average price since April 13 and closed the day at this level at $330 – this level needs to hold or we could see further declines for the stock.

The market was surprised by Tesla not being included in the index. At the time, we talked a lot about how possible inclusion in the S&P 500 was a big driver of the stock’s rally earlier in the year and therefore being snubbed will force some funds to rethink whether they need to hold such a high beta stock if it’s not part of the index.

Pound sinks on Brexit worries, strong dollar

In FX markets, sterling is finding the going very tough, sinking to a 6-week low with the dollar catching a bid and Brexit risks weighing. DXY has advanced to clear 93.50 and test the top of the descending wedge, while EURUSD dropped further under 1.18 ahead of the ECB meeting which might be a lot more dovish than the market thinks.

This is not a pure dollar move by any means – the pound was also at its weakest since the end of July against the euro, too. For cable this has meant the build-up of downside pressure has blown out the stops at 1.30 and GBPUSD is running south with not a lot of support until 1.28.

Brexit risks are a major factor – the UK government admitted it will break international law in order to fix the withdrawal agreement should there be no deal by October 15th. Talks continue today between the UK and the EU and there are clear headline risks as traders see a higher chance of no deal emerging.

However, we should caution that a deal will likely emerge at the last moment after considerable brinkmanship from both sides that makes it seem as though a deal is impossible. Nevertheless, with still 5 weeks to go before the deadline imposed by the British government, there may be a very rough ride ahead for the pound.

Chart: Stops are out as GBPUSD trades below 50-day SMA

Chart: Having pushed clear of the 21-day SMA the dollar tests top of the descending wedge, 50-day SMA above

FTSE lags as dollar continues to drop

Back to school: the unruly mob are back. But that is enough about MPs going back to work – children start the autumn term this week and the furlough scheme starts to unwind with the government reducing its contribution to employees’ wages to 70% in September.

Furlough forever is simply not an option – zombie staff, zombie businesses. But it means unemployment is surely set to rise – and consumer confidence always follows. The chancellor is floating a tax raid – better to monetize the debt surely?

Stocks soft after strong August

Stocks were a tad weaker on Monday, but August was a great month. The MSCI World index rose 6.6% and the S&P rallied over 7% to record their best August since 1986. The Nasdaq rose 10%. August is usually a poor month for stocks.

Tuesday morning saw a firm bounce for the major European bourses, though the FTSE 100 lagged as it played catchup following the bank holiday. A stronger sterling is also dragging on the big dollar earners. AstraZeneca has started large-scale human trials of its coronavirus candidate vaccine in the US.

The Federal Reserve has put a floor under markets and a ceiling on rates, delivering conditions where stocks can only float higher. We call this TINA – There Is No Alternative. It’s not sustainable of course, but it won’t stop the Fed and other central banks continuing to inflate the bubble. The Fed’s policy shift on inflation has marked a important change for the central bank and it may be followed by the ECB and others.

Vix futures – the so-called ‘fear gauge’ are telling another story. These have started to grind higher despite stocks rallying, which raises a warning about the future path of the market. As previously mentioned, volatility should rise as the election approaches and the races proves far tighter than it currently looks. In summary, the options market is sending a signal that the stock market is not.

Strong China manufacturing PMI lifts sentiment, despite soft readings from France, Spain

Sentiment this morning is helped by data showing Chinese factory activity rose at the fastest pace since 2011. French and Spanish manufacturing PMIs softened, dropping under 50 to signal contraction, while Italy’s was a little better than expected at 53.1.

Some of the moves in US shares are striking. Apple rose over 3% to $129 after splitting, whilst Tesla shares rocketed 13% on its busiest day ever. Stock splits shouldn’t make a difference, except this time they have. Tesla is up 74% for the month.

Zoom races higher after smashing earnings forecasts

Zoom rose almost 23% in after-hours trade after it reported a 355% rise in revenues to $663.5m for the July quarter, smashing forecasts for around $500m. Zoom has proved to be a Covid winner of epic proportions – but shouldn’t we all be going back to the office by now? The UK significantly lags Europe and others in ‘getting back to work’ statistics – this has a huge implication for productivity and for the wider economy.

The dollar continues to soften and trying to guess the bottom is akin to catching a falling knife. The dollar index sank to fresh two-year lows in the wake of the Fed’s inflation shift. Perennial dollar bulls have been caught off guard with the unwind, however the Fed’s recent shift on inflation targeting only underlines that bears called this early.

More inflation and a central bank prepared to let it happen should reduce the purchasing power of the dollar and therefore it ought to weaken. However, with the buck usually a safe harbour, it shouldn’t soften too much more.

The pound was up, with GBPUSD pressing on the post-election euphoria high of last December a little above 1.34. There are Brexit risks ahead – talks recommence next week – but for the moment the major driver of this is the dollar’s weakness. Gold futures rose to $2,000/oz as the weaker dollar lifted commodity markets and US real rates – 10-year TIPS – have sunk again as inflation expectations rise.

Adelanto semanal: el desdoblamiento de AAPL y TSLA, el reajuste del Dow y las NFP serán los protagonistas

¿Qué pasará con Apple y Tesla cuando el desdoblamiento de sus acciones entre en vigor? ¿Cómo responderá la nueva organización del Dow a las últimas novedades del mercado? Y, por último, ¿se sumarán las nóminas no agrícolas de EE. UU. a la tendencia de crecimiento consolidado?

Los desdoblamientos de Apple y Tesla

Esta semana, tanto Apple como Tesla empezarán a cotizar a sus nuevos precios tras sus últimos desdoblamientos. El precio de AAPL caerá un cuarto y TSLA, un quinto. Ambas acciones han experimentado un gran aumento desde que anunciaran sus respectivos desdoblamientos: Apple superó los 500 $ por acción la semana pasada y Tesla siguió creciendo tras dejar atrás la barrera de los 2000 $.

Normalmente, tras un desdoblamiento, las acciones se contraen, ya que algunos titulares venden parte de sus acciones adicionales para captar parte de los beneficios de la última revalorización. No obstante, esta reducción podría ser temporal. Próximamente, Apple desvelará su última gama de iPhone, incluidos los ansiados modelos 5G. Tesla podría aprovechar la celebración del próximo Battery Day, que previsiblemente tendrá lugar el 22 de septiembre, para anunciar sus últimas innovaciones destinadas a mejorar la autonomía y el rendimiento de sus vehículos.

Podrá encontrar más información sobre los desdoblamientos de acciones y su repercusión en las operaciones abiertas aquí.

Nueva estructura del promedio industrial del Dow Jones

Tras el desdoblamiento de Apple, el promedio industrial del Dow Jones tendrá un aspecto diferente a partir de esta semana. A diferencia del S&P 500, que se basa en la capitalización bursátil, el Dow es un índice ponderado a los precios, por lo que una caída del 75 % en la cotización de las acciones de Apple forzará la aparición de una serie de cambios.

En primer lugar, Apple dejará de ser la empresa con más peso en el índice y pasará del primero al decimoséptimo lugar. Esto implica que la volatilidad de las acciones tendrá un efecto de menor envergadura que antes en el Dow. United Health se erigirá como la principal acción del índice y, en consecuencia, otras empresas tendrán mayor ponderación.

Asimismo, esto provocará la salida del índice de otras acciones para dejar sitio a otras nuevas de cara a mantener su composición aproximada de un cuarto de acciones tecnológicas. Para conocer todos los detalles de esta remodelación, haga clic aquí.

Resultados de Zoom Video Communications

Desde el principio de la pandemia, Zoom se ha convertido en una herramienta fundamental para numerosas empresas de todo el mundo. También se ha incrementado drásticamente el uso personal de este programa, ya que los consumidores lo utilizan para casi cualquier cosa: desde citas hasta la transmisión en streaming de bodas e, incluso, funerales. Durante el primer trimestre, la empresa registró un aumento de consumidores del 354 % en términos interanuales, lo que se tradujo en un crecimiento del 169 % de sus beneficios.

En consecuencia, cada vez más inversores se han hecho con sus acciones, lo que ha implicado un meteórico ascenso de ZM del 330 % en lo que llevamos de año.

En esta ocasión, los analistas esperan unas ventas de unos 500 millones de dólares y un BPA de 0,45 $ por acción, lo que casaría con un crecimiento interanual del 462,5 %.

El Banco de la Reserva de Australia: ¿posible recorte del OCR?

Esta semana tenemos reunión del Banco de la Reserva de Australia. El mes pasado, los legisladores ampliaron la compra de activos y reconocieron que la decisión de implantar un confinamiento estricto en Victoria —el segundo estado con más población y producción— repercutiría en la economía, pero no en los tipos.

Los futuros sobre el tipo de efectivo del ASX muestran que una pequeña mayoría de los actores del mercado esperan que el RBA recorte los tipos al 0 % en esta ocasión. Sin embargo, el gobernador Philip Lowe ya ha contemplado la idea de rebajar los tipos al 0,1 %, en caso de que sean necesarios más ajustes. Por lo tanto, incluso si los legisladores se ven en la necesidad de adoptar más medidas expansivas, es posible que no lleguen al 0 %.

Nóminas no agrícolas de EE. UU.

Este viernes los indiscutibles protagonistas serán los datos de las nóminas no agrícolas de EE. UU. De nuevo, la creación de puestos de trabajo superó las previsiones del mes pasado. No obstante, la tasa de recuperación se desaceleró hasta los 1,763 millones, ya que el repunte de casos de coronavirus ralentizó las contrataciones.

Los últimos datos de solicitudes de prestaciones por desempleo siguen mostrando una tendencia descendente de solicitudes recurrentes e iniciales: el número de personas que solicitan estas prestaciones de seguros de desempleo por primera vez cayó por debajo del millón en la semana terminada el 8 de agosto, algo que no sucedía desde antes del inicio de la pandemia. La media de cuatro semanas de solicitudes se ha reducido sistemáticamente durante varias semanas, así como el número de solicitudes recurrentes.

Lo más destacado en XRay esta semana

Descubra toda la programación de formación y los análisis del mercado financiero.

07.15 UTC Daily European Morning Call
12.00 UTC 31⁠⁠-⁠⁠⁠Aug Master the Markets
From 15.30 UTC 1-Sep Weekly Gold, Silver, and Oil Forecasts
17.00 UTC 3-⁠⁠⁠Sep Election2020 Weekly

Acontecimientos económicos clave

No se pierda las principales citas del calendario económico de esta semana:

12.00 UTC 31-Aug German Preliminary CPI
After-Market 31-Aug Zoom Video Communications – Q2 2021
00.45 UTC 01-Sep China Caixin Manufacturing PMI
4.30 UTC 01-Sep RBA Official Cash Rate Decision
7.15 – 8.00 UTC 01-Sep Finalised Eurozone Manufacturing PMIS
8.30 UTC 01-Sep Finalised UK Manufacturing PMI
10.00 UTC 01-Sep Eurozone Flash CPI
14.00 UTC 01-Sep US ISM Manufacturing PMI
1.30 UTC 02-Sep Australia Quarterly GDP
14.30 UTC 02-Sep US EIA Crude Oil Inventories
1.30 UTC 03-Sep Australia Trade Balance
00.45 UTC 03-Sep China Caixin Services PMI
7.15 – 8.00 UTC 03-Sep Finalised Eurozone Services PMIs
8.30 UTC 03-Sep Finalised UK Services PMI
12.30 UTC 03-Sep US Jobless Claims
14.00 UTC 03-Sep US ISM Nonmanufacturing PMI
14.30 UTC 03-Sep US EIA Natural Gas Storage
1.30 UTC 04-Sep Australia Retail Sales
6.00 UTC 04-Sep German Factory Orders
12.30 UTC 04-Sep US Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate

Apple and Tesla announce stock splits – here’s what you need to know

Apple and Tesla have both announced that they will split their stocks at the end of this month. Apple shareholders will be granted three additional shares for each one they hold, while Tesla shareholders will receive another four shares for each one they hold. 

The price of each share will be divided by the size of the split to reflect the increased supply: AAPL will start trading at 0.25 times the pre-split price, while Tesla stock will trade at 0.2 times the pre-split price. 

But why are Apple and Tesla splitting their stocks, and how will this affect your trades? 

Why are Apple and Tesla splitting their stocks? 

Apple was the first to announce its stock split earlier this month, followed a few days later by Tesla. Both shares have rallied hard since the announcements although a split shouldn’t theoretically affect their value. 

Stock splits usually happen for two reasons: to increase liquidity and to make the stock more attractive to retail investors. 

Liquidity 

An asset’s liquidity refers to how easily it can be bought and sold without impacting its pricePutting more shares into circulation often increases its trading volume, which can narrow the spread between bid and ask prices. This could make it easier for buyers and sellers to get a fair price for the shares they want or have. 

Appeal 

Apple stock currently trades for around $430 per share, while Tesla has surged towards $2,000 recently. The high valuation could be putting investors off. Shares are often bought and sold in standardised blocks – a “board lot” of 100 shares would cost an investor $43,000. If the stock were split today, 100 shares would cost $10,750. 

However, modern ways of trading shares (such as leveraged products like Contracts for Difference) have made it more affordable to trade even expensive stocks, so the benefit isn’t as obvious as it used to be 

Regardless of the why the decision was made, investors have taken it as a sign of confidence in the stock – Apple and Tesla wouldn’t want to lower their share price if the companies felt that there wasn’t the potential for further appreciation. 

How will the stock splits affect my trades? 

On August 31st Apple stock will start trading at a quarter of the pre-split price, and Tesla will begin trading at a fifth of the pre-split price. 

Any existing positions on AAPL CFDs will be closed at the original opening price and new positions opened at the new split-adjusted price but for four times more units. The same will happen with positions on TSLA CFDs, but with five times more units. 

See below for an example – note that the prices given are based upon the market value as of August 20th and are for indicative purposes only. 

  • Before the split you have 100 units of Apple CFDs, each valued at $462 for a total value of $46,200. 
  • When the stock is split your position for 100 units will be closed at the original opening price (so P&L will display as zero) and a new position will be opened that is four times larger. In this instance your holdings would now be for 400 units of Apple CFDs.
  • The price of each unit will be worth a quarter of the pre-split price, meaning in this example each unit is valued at $115.50 for a total for $46,200 – exactly as before. 

If you didn’t already have a position in Apple and wanted to trade it, or want to expand an existing position, you would be able to buy the same quantity of units for a lower price, or more units for the same cost as before. 

In effect, the size of your AAPL and TSLA positions will be multiplied by the same quantity as the stock prices are divided by, meaning the value of your holdings will not change. 

How the Apple split will impact the Dow 

Anyone trading the Dow will also need to pay attention to the Apple stock split. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index, so when Apple’s stock price drops thanks to the split the company will no longer be the index’s biggest constituent (that will be UnitedHealth). 

Moves in Apple stock will therefore have less of an influence on the Dow than they currently do. 

Will other companies copy Apple and Tesla? 

Investors are now looking to other tech giants to see whether they decide to follow suit. Amazon and Alphabet will be of particular interest – Amazon’s stock price is over $3,100, while Alphabet is trading near $1,500 at the time of writing. 

A lower stock price for Apple would make the stock more attractive, and Amazon and Alphabet may want to ensure they aren’t pricing potential investors out of the market. However, as the huge cost of an individual share in either of them proves, neither Amazon nor Alphabet has felt the need to resist high prices in the past. 

Stocks firm, gold chased higher, Tesla earnings beat

European stocks were firmer after US stocks rallied yesterday to finish at the best level in months, whilst Asia was mixed. The S&P 500 closed at 3,276, its best finish since February as decent corporate earnings supported the bulls who continue to shrug off the rising Covid cases as well as mounting US-China tensions. The broad index also managed to close at the high of the previous session, having previously closed 20 pts short of this level. 

 

There are some concerns with US-China tensions after the closure of the consulate in Houston, with China retaliating by closing the US consulate in Chengdu. But this kind of tit-for-tat is nothing new – we have been dealing with a trade war for years and I think the market is fully expecting friction to increase, particularly as the US presidential election looms and domestic strife makes it all too convenient for the White House to bash China. UK-China tensions are something a little fresher and have led to Chinese authorities taking the English Premier League off air.  

 

Tesla posted its first full year of GAAP profitability, meaning it can now be considered for inclusion in the S&P 500. Excluding special items, EPS came in at $2.18 on revenues of $6bn. Whilst the beat on deliveries reported earlier by the company indicated a strong quarter, this was better than most had forecast. Whilst the stock is still exceedingly rich based on the fundamentals, it’s one with such a backing that it just doesn’t seem to matter. In some ways it’s a talisman for the whole stock market – old fashioned ideas like valuation and discounted free cash flow models simply don’t matter when you have such an incredible amount of liquidity. It’s also a bet on the future of the automotive industry – which carmaker is going to be around in 50 years? 

 

Microsoft shares fell after hours following its quarterly earnings revealed a slowing in cloud growth, with revenues from the Azure business down from 59% to 47%, although overall the company beat on both the top and bottom lines. XBox revenues soared as gamers found ways to pass the time in lockdown. Likewise Americans stocking up on ice cream and other goodies lifted Unilever sales but emerging markets -without the help of an Ocado to bring consumers lockdown treats – were tougher.

 

On the data front, Germany’s Gfk consumer confidence survey was better than expected, printing –0.3 vs the –4.6 expected. South Korea’s economy is in recession after the worst slump 57 years.  

 

Today the focus is on the US weekly unemployment numbers, with initial jobless claims forecast to hold steady at 1.3m. Initial jobless claims last week of 1.3m were almost unchanged from the prior week. As noted after the release of the numbers last Thursday, the improving trend in initial jobless claims has all but halted, which may reflect the spike in coronavirus cases that has coincided with renewed lockdown measures in a number of economically important states such as Texas and California. There are also big worries that temporary layoffs are turning into permanent firings. 

 

Continuing claims fell to 17.3m vs the 18m in the prior week, which was a tad better than the 17.6m expected. The total number of people claiming benefits in all programmes for the week ending June 27th fell to 32m a decrease of 430k from the previous week.  

On the Covid front, US deaths exceeded 1,000 for the second day, whilst California – the most populous and economically important state – saw more than 12k cases on Wednesday, its largest single-day rise. 

 

In FX, the dollar remains on the backfoot with major peers cementing gains. EURUSD has cleared the January 2019 peak at 1.1570 and looking for a further extension towards the next big Fibonacci level at 1.1760 and the September 2018 swing highs at 1.18. The outlook for the euro is more bullish – on a technical note the clearance of 1.15 is a big hurdle out of the way, whilst the agreement on the EU pandemic fund is fundamentally vital to pushing the euro higher. Longer term is could have very far-reaching repercussions for bond investors, too. GBPUSD was trading above 1.27 and the 200-day moving average and testing the descending trend line that forced the pullback on Tuesday – clearance of these two hurdles opens up a path to 1.30 albeit the fundamental bullish thesis on sterling is far cloudier. 

 

Oil nudged up despite the rise in US crude inventories. WTI (Aug) pressed up above $42 after the EIA reported a crude oil inventory build of 4.9m barrels in the week to July 17th, vs the 2m barrel draw expected, albeit the API print had already flagged a likely increase in stockpiles. Stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub rose 1.375m vs last week’s build of almost 1m. 

 

Gold continues to march higher as real rates hit all-time lows with 10yr TIPS finishing at –0.88%. Gold pressed up to $1,876 this morning to mark a new 9-year peak. The momentum that is chasing this trade should easily enable bulls to find the $1921 all-time high last achieved in 2011 – you get the feeling there is a lot of appetite to take out this level, but expect some considerable resistance and another pullback to $1800 may be required first. After clearing the all-time high there is a chance of a move to $2k, but we should question whether the support from declining real rates will continue to act as a driver of gold prices without a significant inflationary follow-through. Nevertheless, it’s clear that the combination of a very uncertain macro backdrop, fresh geopolitical risk, the threat of inflation stemming from the massive injection of both monetary and fiscal stimulus make gold a clear-cut Covid winner. 

Adelanto semanal: La posibilidad de una vacuna y las ganancias de Tesla en el punto de mira

Esta semana descubriremos si Tesla puede justificar su inmensa valoración con la publicación de sus resultados del segundo trimestre.

Ganancias del 2T de Tesla

Tesla (TSLA) ha experimentado un impresionante repunte en 2020, con un aumento del 270 % en lo que va de año. En los últimos 12 meses, sus acciones se han incrementado más de un 500 %, en lo que solo se puede describir como uno de los avances más extraordinarios de la historia corporativa. A lo largo de este periodo, el S&P 500 se anotó en torno a un 7 %. Las valoraciones están por las nubes y las acciones cotizan en los mismos múltiplos que las tecnológicas —y por un buen motivo, dirían algunos—, pero el interés por operar en corto sobre la acción (es decir, el porcentaje de acciones que se prestan a aquellos operadores que apuestan por una caída del mercado) es relativamente alto, ya que se encuentra en el 7,5 %.

Las acciones de Tesla se han disparado en el último año 

Sin embargo, esta semana nos centramos en lo importante, ya que Tesla publicará sus resultados financieros para el 2T de 2020. Probablemente, el próximo 22 de julio, la empresa anuncie, por cuarto trimestre consecutivo, beneficios, lo que le allanaría el camino para entrar en el S&P 500. Además, esto explicaría el último rally, ya que los fondos han resuelto que necesitarán tener un trozo del pastel.

Las acciones avanzaron hasta máximo históricos en torno a los 1800 $ tras el anuncio de la empresa de que produciría 90 650 vehículos en el segundo trimestre, un dato muy por encima de las estimaciones de la empresa y de las expectativas de Wall Street, que cifraban esta producción en 83 000 vehículos. Tesla ha logrado este aumento de producción gracias a la reapertura del complejo de Fremont y la planta Shanghái tras el cierre forzoso del primer trimestre a causa de la Covid. Además, el crecimiento de las ventas en China se evidenció en los casi 12 000 vehículos Model 3 vendidos en mayo. Otro de los impulsos a las acciones de Tesla vino del aumento de precio objetivo sobre las mismas por parte de Wedbush Securities desde 1000 $ hasta 1250 $, mientras que el escenario alcista le concedía un precio objetivo de 2000 $.

No hay consenso entre los analistas sobre Tesla… 

…pero los fondos de inversión libre han aumentado sus participaciones.

Esta semana, también estaremos pendientes de los resultados de Microsoft, Coca-Cola y Unilever.

Los resultados de la vacuna de AstraZeneca y Oxford University

La esperanza de lograr una vacuna sigue apuntalando el sentimiento del mercado de renta variable, a pesar de los indicios de una recuperación más lenta que el crecimiento en forma de «V» que todo el mundo esperaba. Gran parte de esta esperanza se localiza en una vacuna en estudio desarrollada por AstraZeneca y Oxford University, cuyos resultados de los ensayos clínicos de fase I se publicarán el lunes y podrían marcar la pauta para el resto de la semana en los mercados de renta variable.

Asimismo, observaremos cómo responden las acciones de AstraZeneca, las cuales experimentaron un fuerte repunte este año, erigiéndose como la principal acción del FTSE 100.

Datos económicos fundamentales

Como es habitual, el jueves esperamos los últimos datos sobre las solicitudes de prestaciones por desempleo iniciales y continuas de EE. UU., los cuales nos ayudarán a vislumbrar el ritmo de la reapertura y la recuperación económicas.

El viernes, se publicarán las ventas minoristas registradas en junio en Reino Unido, las cuales se espera que mejoren tras un holgado repunte del 12 % en mayo, al que le precedió un descenso del 18 % en abril, en pleno auge de la pandemia.

Ese mismo viernes, también conoceremos los avances de los PMI de la zona del euro, que hace un mes reflejaron un crecimiento moderado. Los PMI, al ser índices de difusión, se encuentran particularmente condicionados por la velocidad y la magnitud de la contracción económica. Por lo tanto, aunque puedan experimentar un crecimiento en forma de «V», no significa que la recuperación vaya a seguir el mismo camino. Los PMI solo se centran en la opinión de los encuestados acerca de si la situación ha mejorado o empeorado con respecto al mes anterior, por lo que ofrecen una instantánea bastante incompleta acerca de la actividad económica en época de crisis. Si el índice se sitúa por encima de 50, la situación es mejor que el mes anterior, un nivel que, a día de hoy, es fácil de alcanzar.

Lo más destacado en XRay esta semana

Descubra toda la programación de formación y los análisis del mercado financiero.

07.15 UTC Daily European Morning Call
17.00 UTC 20-Jul Blonde Markets
From 15.30 UTC 21-Jul Weekly Gold, Silver, and Oil Forecasts
14.45 UTC 23-Jul Master the Markets with Andrew Barnett
17.00 UTC 23-Jul Introduction to Currency Trading – Is it For Me?

Top Earnings Reports this Week

Here are some of the biggest earnings reports scheduled for this week:

After-Market 20-Jul IBM – Q2
07.00 GMT 21-Jul UBS – Q2
Pre-Market 21-Jul Coca-Cola Co – Q2
Pre-Market 21-Jul Philip Morris – Q2
Pre-Market 22-Jul Biogen – Q2
After-Market 22-Jul Tesla – Q2
After-Market 22-Jul Microsoft – Q2
After-Market 22-Jul Gilead Sciences – Q2
07.00 GMT 23-Jul Unilever – Q2
Pre-Market 23-Jul AT&T – Q2
Pre-Market 23-Jul Twitter – Q2
After-Market 23-Jul Intel – Q2
23-Jul Southwest Airlines – Q2
Pre-Market 24-Jul Verizon – Q2
Pre-Market 24-Jul American Express – Q2

Key Events this Week

Watch out for the biggest events on the economic calendar this week:

01.30 GMT 21-Jul RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
02.30 GMT 21-Jul RBA Governor Lowe Speech
12.30 GMT 21-Jul Canada Retail Sales
00.30 GMT 22-Jul Japan Flash Manufacturing PMI
01.30 GMT 22-Jul Australia Retail Sales
12.30 GMT 22-Jul Canada CPI
14.30 GMT 22-Jul US EIA Crude Oil Inventories
06.00 GMT 23-Jul German GfK Consumer Climate
12.30 GMT 23-Jul US Weekly Jobless Claims
14.30 GMT 23-Jul US EIA Natural Gas Storage
06.00 GMT 24-Jul UK Retail Sales
07.15-08.00 GMT 24-Jul Flash Eurozone Services, Manufacturing PMIs
08.30 GMT 24-Jul Flash UK Services, Manufacturing PMIs
13.45 GMT 24-Jul US Flash Manufacturing PMI

US Election2020 fast update: Biden ramps clean energy plans

  • Biden plans $2tn clean energy investment
  • Clean energy stocks may prosper under Democrat clean sweep
  • Potential risks?

Clean energy stocks were among yesterday’s best gainers as Joe Biden, presumptive US Democrat president, outlined a $2tn green energy and infrastructure spending plan. Traditional oil companies also rebounded, with Chevron and Exxon up over 3% and Schlumberger, EOG Resources and Halliburton both adding over 5% as Biden appeared to steer clear of any fracking bans.

Biden plans “irreversible path” to net-zero emissions

First the numbers – it’s more money, faster with a more ambitious target than in the primaries after – it has all the hallmarks of Bernie Sanders on it. The $2tn over 4 years exceeds the $1.7tn over ten imagined in Biden’s primary campaign.

Biden outlined plans to set the US on an “irreversible path” to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, with an ambitious goal to build a carbon pollution-free power sector by 2035. There is a clear break being made with the oil & gas sector implicit in this, but crucially we did not hear an aggressive take on fracking or proposals to restrict US shale.

The focus was on job creation in new industries, not on going after the oil & gas sector per se, albeit the proposals clearly imply a far more aggressive shift away from fossil fuels than a Trump administration would pursue. As much as it cemented the Democrats as the green party, this is an election pitch to voters in some key swing states who may have lost their jobs.

Meanwhile, the Democrat proposals would also involve upgrading millions of commercial and residential properties over 4 years to increase energy efficiency, with among other things the installation of solar panels, which is a potentially huge growth area (Sunrun, Solaredge, FirstSolar).

We also note a positive policy position on EV (Tesla, Nikola) with plans to invest in 500,000 electric vehicle charging stations. Biden’s goal is to combine going green with economic recovery: to Build Back Better. He is promising to create 1 million new jobs in the auto industry, domestic auto supply chains, and auto infrastructure, from parts to materials to electric vehicle charging stations, which will depend on the repurposing of the auto industry from ICE to EV.

How will oil and gas sector workers react in key states?

Whilst Biden is playing a strong hand here in tying jobs and economic recovery to the green economy, killing two albatrosses with one very large boulder, there are of course risks to this strategy, notably among the millions of workers in the oil & gas sector in states like Pennsylvania and Texas.

Biden boasts of creating more than 250k jobs “immediately to clean up local economies from the impacts of resource extraction”, but they may see Trump as a better guarantor of their jobs when it comes to the crunch.

Broadly the announcement appeared to be positive for the S&P 500 Energy sector, which rose 3.43%. Our Biden20 Blend clean energy constituents, selected as potential gainers from a Democrat clean sweep, notched broad gains, with some solar energy names taking off after Biden’s announcement.

 

Company Ticker % daily move
Nikola Corporation NKLA -1.5%
Nextera Energy NEE +2.46%
Brookfield Asset Management Inc BAM +2.93%
Tesla TSLA +1.32%
First Solar FSLR +9.91%
Terraform Power TERP +4.59%
Brookfield Renewable Partners BEP +3.92%
Sunrun RUN +12.26%
SolarEdge SEDG +8.74%
Enphase Energy ENPH +6.8%
Ormat Technologies ORA +0.48%
Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure AY -1.95%
Plugpower PLUG +4.09%
Nextera Energy Partners NEP +2.95%

Short sellers triumph as Wirecard collapses – but who’s next?

Those shorting Wirecard will have been rubbing their hands with glee after the events of the past few days.

The company, once one of Germany’s tech darlings, last week filed for insolvency after admitting that almost €2 billion in cash missing from its balance sheet likely didn’t exist.

In the space of 11 days the stock price collapsed from just over €100 to as low as €1.15. In the week ending June 26th, Wirecard short sellers made $1.2 billion, with hedge funds accounting for the bulk of that.

Wirecard has been a heavily-shorted stock for a long time, thanks in part to negative coverage by the Financial Times, which has long warned that the company’s finances don’t add up. The stock was so heavily shorted that in February the German financial regulator took the unprecedented step of banning new short positions on Wirecard for an entire month.

Wirecard stock is a fraction of its former value after the 95% drop witnessed over the past 12 days. While hedge funds are still piling in to short the stock, many shorts have already locked in their profits. So what might be the next big target for short sellers?

GSX: Inflated revenues and fake users?

GSX Techedu is a tech company and online education provider focusing on after-school tutoring for primary and secondary school children, as well as courses in foreign language, and professional development amongst others.

The company has been the focus of short sellers for some time now. As of mid-May over a fifth of its publicly traded stock was sold short – 27.3 million shares, worth $815 million at the time. This makes GSX the fourth largest Hong Kong or Chinese equity traded short on US exchanges after Alibaba, Pinduoduo and JD.com.

The company faces claims from Citron Research and Muddy Waters that it has inflated its revenue figures. Citron, which has called GSX “the most blatant Chinese stock fraud since 2011”, has questioned the 431% year-on-year revenue surge reported by GSX in 2019. Additionally, Muddy Waters believes that around three quarters of the company’s reported students are actually bots rather than paid users.

GSX listed on the New York Stock Exchange on June 6th 2019 with an initial offer price of $10.50. The stock is now trading at around $58, and has surged 146% this year.

You can trade this hotly-watched stock on the Marketsx platform.

Tesla shorts down but not out

Tesla founder Elon Musk has been battling against short sellers for a long time. The huge rally seen in the stock price in recent months, while dealing a painful financial blow to short sellers, seems to have only hardened their resolve. Back at the end of January, a stronger than expected earnings report from Tesla saw shorts lose $1.5 billion in a single day. Then, at the beginning of March as the pandemic panic set in, Tesla’s tumble netted shorts $2.8 billion.

Tesla is the most shorted US stock, with the value of its float out on loan rising around $3 billion in the last two months to over $16 billion. That’s around 11% of its publicly available stock. The stock recently rose to trade above $1,000 per share for the first time, helped by resilient demand for its vehicles in China and progress towards a one million mile battery, which could revolutionise the electric vehicle market.

However, shorts believe there is still a large disconnect between where the stock is now and the fundamentals of the company – it went public ten years ago and, while the stock is up over 4,000% since then, Telsa has never delivered a full year of profitability. Shorts are betting that a lot of the recent gains seen in Tesla stock is because of momentum traders, and that the bubble will eventually burst.

Will Hammerson follow Intu into administration?

In the UK, shopping centre owner Hammerson attracted a lot of attention from short sellers during the height of the pandemic panic in March. It’s the most shorted UK stock, with 13% of its publicly traded shares out on loan. A total of nine hedge funds are betting against the stock, as the impact of the lockdown to battle Covid 19 and the prospect of a sluggish reopening hampered by social distancing measures, threatens the outlook for the company.

Rival Intu, owner of some of the UK’s largest shopping centres, entered administration this month. The company was already heavily laden with debt, and the coronavirus pandemic proved to be the final straw.

The fate of Intu shows just why short sellers are interested in Hammerson: as of the end of last week the collapse in its stock price left Intu valued at just £16 million, down from £13 billion in 2006.

While Hammerson raced higher from its mid-May low as its tenants prepared to reopen their stores, the stock has since lost nearly half its value again.

Where next for TSLA after Musk’s ‘price is too high’ tweet?

Tesla CEO Elon Musk knocked $14 billion off the value of his own company on Friday after tweeting that he thought the stock price was too high.

Musk posted “Tesla stock price too high imo” during a bizarre tirade of messages, that included railing against lockdown and sharing lyrics to The Star Spangled Banner. TSLA dived over 12% in response.

Musk is no stranger to expensive tweets. He had to pay the US Securities and Exchange Commission $20 million in 2018 after posting that he was planning on taking the company private again. He suggested a premium of $420 and that funding for the move was secured, causing the stock to leap over 6%.

The SEC alleged that, “in truth, Musk knew that the potential transaction was uncertain and subject to numerous contingencies.  Musk had not discussed specific deal terms, including price, with any potential financing partners, and his statements about the possible transaction lacked an adequate basis in fact.”

Tesla was also required to pay a $20 million settlement, remove Musk from the board, and implement new procedures and controls with regard to the CEO’s Twitter account. An in-house lawyer for Tesla is supposed to approve his tweets relating to company financial matters.

Musk breaks SEC settlement guidelines with TSLA tweet?

These controls clearly weren’t working too well on Friday – in response to an email from the Wall Street Journal asking if the messages had been authorised or vetted, Musk simply replied “No”.

Is Musk facing another spat with the SEC? Potentially. It’s unclear whether commenting on the stock price counts as a ‘financial matter’, and therefore whether it should have been vetted before it was posted. However, if the SEC deems that it does count, Tesla’s board of directors could also be in trouble, as it’s the company’s responsibility to see that these compliance procedures are followed.

A small fine here or there is nothing a billionaire need concern himself with, but the danger for shareholders is that the CEO and the board need to be on top form during these extraordinary times. The last thing a company like Tesla needs is for its CEO to be fighting with the US authorities – or the board of his own company.

Where next for Tesla shares?

Tesla shareholders have always had to contend with Elon Musk’s erratic behaviour.

In October 2013 he claimed “the stock price that we have is more than we have any right to deserve” while opening a new showroom in London. He told reporters in September 2014 that “I think our stock price is kind of high right now, to be totally honest”.

In February 2015 Musk took a different angle, claiming that Tesla could reach the same market capitalisation as Apple had ($700bn at the time) within 10 years. He repeated the claim in May 2017, but a couple of weeks later was back to stating that the current market cap was “higher than we have any right to deserve”.

Even if Musk and Tesla escape repercussions from the latest tweet, this is just the latest in history of tweets from the CEO on the company’s share price. Traders and investors need to be prepared for unexpected surprises.

Find the latest Tesla ratings with Analyst Recommendations

Tesla currently holds a consensus “Neutral” rating amongst Wall Street analysts and the average price target of $621.33 represents a 14% downside on the current share price.

Many analysts updated their ratings on Tesla on April 30th – the day before Musk’s tweet about the share price. Check the Analyst Recommendations tool to see whether the CEO’s comments change the view on the Street.

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