Adelanto semanal: el Tesla Battery Day encenderá el interés de los inversores

El martes, Tesla celebra su ansiado y largamente esperado Battery Day, en el que los inversores prevén que posiblemente se anunciará una tecnología revolucionaria. Entretanto, el flujo de datos económicos incluye el avance de los PMI para la zona del euro, la decisión sobre los tipos de interés del Banco de la Reserva de Nueva Zelanda y el informe laboral semanal de EE. UU.

En los próximos días, se espera la comparecencia del presidente de la Fed, Jay Powell, y del gobernador del Banco de Inglaterra, Andrew Bailey, tras las reuniones del FOMC y el Comité de política monetaria (MPC).

Tesla Battery Day

La junta anual de accionistas de Tesla de este año tendrá lugar el próximo martes, 22 de septiembre de 2020, a las 13:30 horas (UTC -8). Inmediatamente tras su conclusión, Tesla celebrará el Battery Day, el cual ha despertado especulaciones a partes iguales tanto con respecto a las acciones como en cuanto a lo que su CEO, Elon Musk, pueda desvelar en el evento.

Puede consultar nuestra guía completa aquí.

¿En qué punto se encuentra la recuperación económica?

¿Está perdiendo impulso la recuperación económica mundial? Si bien el retroceso posterior a los confinamientos se antojó fácil, la vuelta a los niveles de 2019 resultará mucho más ardua. Está costando cada vez más conseguir ganancias marginales y algunos indicadores económicos más recurrentes están comenzando a estabilizarse. Es el caso de los PMI de la zona del euro, que han empezado a mitigarse.

La última ronda del avance de las encuestas al sector servicios y manufacturero para la zona del euro, Reino Unido y EE. UU. se publicará el miércoles. Mientras tanto, el jueves, los operadores estarán más pendientes que nunca de las solicitudes de prestaciones por desempleo estadounidenses; por su parte, los pedidos de bienes duraderos del país, que se conocerán el viernes, suponen un valioso indicador avanzado de la demanda comercial.

¿Cuál es la respuesta de los bancos centrales?

La semana pasada, la Reserva Federal y el Banco de Inglaterra sugirieron que estaban dispuestas a esforzarse más, según se les ha exigido, y que los tipos de interés se mantendrán bajos durante mucho tiempo. Esta semana le llega el turno de actuar al Banco de la Reserva de Nueva Zelanda (RBNZ), después de que el país informara de su peor recesión en décadas.

La economía del país se contrajo un 12,2 % entre abril y junio, en lo que supone la caída más acusada desde que se inauguró el actual sistema de mediciones en 1987. Este colapso se debe a la interrupción en la actividad debida a las estrictas medidas de confinamiento aplicadas en Nueva Zelanda.

El RBNZ ha contemplado aplicar tipos negativos; de hecho, el asistente del gobernador, Christian Hawkesby, afirmó el mes pasado que el banco central está «preparando la fase preliminar» para poner en marcha mecanismos de políticas adicionales, entre las que se incluyen los tipos negativos. ¿Darán el salto ahora o bien considerarán que la economía se recuperará dado el exiguo número de casos?

Lo más destacado en XRay esta semana

Descubra toda la programación de formación y los análisis del mercado financiero.

15.00 UTC 21-Sep Tesla Battery Day Preview
17.00 UTC 21-Sep Blonde Markets
17.00 UTC 22⁠⁠⁠-⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sep Webinar: Identify Trends and Choose Technical Indicators
14.45 UTC 24⁠⁠-⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sep Master the Markets
17.00 UTC 24⁠-⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sep Election2020 Weekly

Acontecimientos económicos clave

No se pierda las principales citas del calendario económico de esta semana. En la plataforma, encontrará un completo calendario económico y de acontecimientos corporativos. 

06:00 UTC 

22-Sep  Kingfisher – Half-Year Results 
14.00 UTC  22-Sep  Eurozone Consumer Confidence 
02.00 UTC  23-Sep  Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision 
07.15 – 08.00 UTC  23-Sep  Eurozone Flash Services / Manufacturing PMIs 
Pre-Market  23-Sep  General Mills – Q1 2021 
08.30 UTC 23-Sep  UK Flash Services / Manufacturing PMIs 
14.30 UTC 23-Sep  US EIA Crude Oil Inventories 
23.50 UTC  23-Sep  Bank of Japan Meeting Minutes 
08.00 UTC  24-Sep  German Ifo Business Climate 
Pre-Market  24-Sep  Accenture – Q4 2020 
12.30 UTC 24-Sep  US Weekly Jobless Claims 
14.30 UTC  24-Sep  US EIA Natural Gas Storage 
After-Market  24-Sep  Costco Wholesale Corp – Q4 2020 
11.00 UTC  25-Sep  Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin 
12.30 UTC 25-Sep  US Durable Goods Orders 

 

Tesla Battery Day primer: Can Musk deliver as TSLA rallies on event hype?

Tesla Battery Day primer

  • Battery Day event scheduled for Sep 22nd
  • Signs of speculative buying ahead of event
  • Elon Musk hints at more energy dense batteries

Investors are charged up with excitement ahead of Tesla’s Battery Day event. Shares have rallied about 25% in the last week after the stock tapped on the 50-day simple moving average following some heavy selling in the middle of the Nasdaq’s early September pullback.

This of course followed disappointment at missing out on S&P 500 inclusion, and some very aggressive bid that took place in and around the stock split. So is Battery Day all hype, or is there something to it?

Tesla’s 2020 annual meeting of stockholders will be held on Tuesday, September 22, 2020, at 13:30 Pacific Time. Immediately after this meeting, Tesla will hold the Battery Day event.

CEO Elon Musk, in his usual caution, said in January that the event will ‘blow your mind’. Recently he toned it down a bit, teasing ‘many exciting things’. Whilst we should always take his pronouncements on Twitter with a pinch of salt, clearly there is a high degree of expectation and speculation – and speculative buying of TSLA stock – taking place in the run-up to the event.

Batteries matter

To deliver on its EV promise, Tesla needs to own the battery space. Without this, it’s not so different to an OEM. Musk commented on this at Tesla’s Q4 2019 earnings call in January, explaining that in order to ramp up Model Y production, introduce the Cybertruck and launch the Semi electric truck, a lot more batteries would be needed.

“So, the thing we’re going to be really focused on is increasing battery production capacity because that’s very fundamental because if you don’t improve battery production capacity, then you end up just shifting unit volume from one product to another and you haven’t actually produced more electric vehicles,” Musk said.

And whilst Tesla has a lead in the powertrain stakes, traditional players may catch up. “It’s worth noting that the Model S has like a 100 kWh pack, the [Porsche] Taycan has like a 95 kWh pack. The Model S is steadily approaching 400 miles of range. The Taycan has 200 miles of range. So we must be using that energy pretty efficiently, and the powertrain is a big part of that,” Musk added in January.

Whilst battery production is one thing, making the batteries more efficient is quite something else. Tesla’s acquisition of Maxwell, an ultra-capacitor manufacturer and battery technology business based in San Diego, is a considerable factor.

What to expect from Tesla’s Battery Day

My expectation is that Musk is about to announce if not a leap then a progression in battery technology that brings EV costs down to, or close to, traditional automobiles. It would be a surprise if Tesla were not able to say it has made further progress on batteries that are more energy dense and have a longer life.

We note for example, that on August 24th this year Musk said battery cells of 400 Watt hours per kilogram (Wh/kg) with a high cycle would be possible in volume within 3 to 4 years, way beyond the current 260 Wh/kg in the Model 3, which could indicate knowledge of some improvement coming in the Tesla batteries.

There has also been speculation that Tesla may unveil “silicon nanowire anode” technology that can greatly increase battery density and cell life. All of this remains speculation, of course.

If Tesla can both lower costs and increase battery energy density and life, it would be a significant step forward for the company and further cement its lead in the EV space. However, given the recent rampant speculation on the stock and Musk’s capacity to somewhat overstate his case, there is a considerable risk of a buy-the-rumour, sell-the-fact trade.

Tesla Stock Signals

Whilst client flows remain positive (87% bullish), analysts remain downbeat – the average price target of $300 vs the current $450 for the stock implies a 34% downside. We also note that hedge funds have been decreasing their holdings.

Baillie Gifford, one of the top shareholders, recently reduced its stake as the holding approached fund limits, but also because of fears that valuations had just got silly. Our insider signals tool also delivers a sell signal on the stock.

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