Adelanto semanal: un posible acuerdo para el brexit y una nueva tanda de análisis de gastos y de PMI

El brexit se encuentra escrito a fuego, de nuevo, en la agenda para esta semana, ya que parece que por fin se atisba un posible acuerdo. En otras plazas, el canciller Sunak anunciará el último análisis de gastos del país, al tiempo que esperamos la publicación de varios PMI en Reino Unido, la UE y EE. UU. ¿Qué nos deparará la semana entrante?

Brexit

Parece que se vislumbra el final del túnel para las negociaciones del brexit tras años de falta de transparencia y negociaciones en bucle. Michel Barnier será el encargado, previsiblemente, de informar a los Estados miembros el viernes 27 de noviembre. ¿Se podrá de verdad alcanzar un acuerdo?

El Reino Unido finalmente se ha mostrado dispuesto a comprometerse con una serie de asuntos clave en los que parecían no ponerse de acuerdo, como las normas de competencia.

El optimismo también procede de la reorganización de la plataforma de asesores más veteranos del gobierno, al tiempo que las voces más extremistas que clamaban por «salir a toda costa» de Downing Street han perdido eco.

Sin embargo, cualquier sensación de optimismo debería venir de la mano de una dosis de escepticismo, ya que estamos aún ante una posibilidad que se puede antojar remota. Determinados países, como Francia, pueden oponerse a los pactos sobre la pesca, lo que obligaría a seguir con las negociaciones.

El par GBP/USD actualmente se mantiene en 1,32, aunque cualquier repunte podría verse limitado por el nivel de agresividad en las negociaciones bilaterales en este punto.

Lo que sí está claro es que aún seguimos inmersos en el laberinto del brexit, lo que nos lleva a preguntarnos qué nos augurará la semana que viene.

Análisis de gastos

El 25 de noviembre, el canciller de Hacienda británico Rishi Sunak concluirá su análisis de gastos anual para 2020.

En esencia, se trata de una Declaración de otoño (o Presupuestos de otoño; Autumn Statement) descafeinada que describe los planes de gasto público previstos para los próximos meses.

Se trata de un análisis de gastos anual y no de las perspectivas habituales que se realizan a 3 o 4 años. Al fin y al cabo, 2020 no ha sido un año especialmente «normal» y se ha tenido que adoptar un enfoque distinto del gasto con respecto a las perspectivas habituales, ya que el país sigue batallando con la pandemia.

Los principales puntos de debate del análisis de gastos son los siguientes:

  • ¿Cómo se tratará el gasto por coronavirus? ¿Se creará un fondo aparte de «reserva para la Covid», por ejemplo?
  • En cuanto a los planes de gasto con respecto al brexit, dado que aún está pendiente un acuerdo, ¿cómo se tratarán los gastos relacionados con el brexit?
  • En cuanto a la generosidad de los planes de gasto del canciller, ¿de dónde obtendrá los fondos?
  • En cuanto a los compromisos de gasto previos, ¿realmente los ha cumplido?
  • Con respecto a la retribución del sector público, ¿los trabajadores de servicios esenciales obtendrán un aumento salarial?
  • En lo que respecta a la infraestructura y las inversiones, ¿se aumentará el gasto en infraestructuras, sobre todo a la luz de la propuesta de prohibir la venta de vehículos de combustión interna en 2030?
  • En cuanto a adoptar una perspectiva más amplia en materia fiscal, de gasto y de finanzas públicas, ¿cuáles son los planes generales del canciller? ¿Cómo ha afectará la pandemia a estos planes?

PMI

Nos aguarda la semana grande de los PMI. Los Estados miembros de la UE, EE. UU. y Reino Unido publicarán nuevos datos de estos índices.

La publicación del PMI de octubre se acogió con mucho optimismo en EE. UU., ya que apuntaba a que la economía seguía creciendo con fuerza ese mes. Más concretamente, el sector manufacturero registró un buen comportamiento. A nivel corporativo, en general, también impera el optimismo, puesto que se espera más estímulo.

Por su parte, la perspectiva de la UE no fue tan halagüeña. A raíz de los datos de octubre, las previsiones se han inclinado hacia la recesión. El sector manufacturero se encuentra por debajo del índice mundial, mientras que el sector servicios sigue en una situación difícil con la segunda tanda de confinamientos. El 4T podría deparar una doble recesión, pero esperaremos a lo que indiquen los nuevos datos.

El Reino Unido también ha hecho frente a una recaída tras un septiembre optimista. Octubre fue similar al de la UE para los británicos: el sector servicios y el manufacturero registraron un rendimiento inferior. La producción apenas se encuentra actualmente un 10 % por debajo de los niveles previos a la pandemia.

Datos económicos estadounidenses

Además de los datos de los PMI, EE. UU. sacará a la luz esta semana más indicadores de confianza económicos.

En primer lugar, conoceremos los datos de confianza de los consumidores de la Universidad de Michigan. En octubre, los datos mejoraron con respecto a septiembre y cabe la posibilidad de que el optimismo de los PMI resulte en una mayor confianza de los consumidores.

Esta semana también se publicará una nueva tanda de datos de desempleo de EE. UU. Las solicitudes de prestaciones por desempleo han fluctuado durante las últimas semanas, pero parece que se encuentran en descenso. Desde la semana del 9 de noviembre, las solicitudes han descendido desde 757 000 hasta 709 000, ¿continuará esta tendencia?

Datos económicos principales

Date Time (GMT) Currency Event
Sun Nov 22 9:45pm NZD Retail Sales q/q
NZD Core Retail Sales q/q
10:00pm AUD Flash Manufacturing PMI
AUD Flash Services PMI
Mon Nov 23 All Day JPY Bank Holiday
8:15am EUR French Flash Services PMI
EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI
8:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI
EUR German Flash Services PMI
9:00am EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI
EUR Flash Services PMI
9:30am GBP Flash Manufacturing PMI
GBP Flash Services PMI
2:45pm USD Flash Manufacturing PMI
USD Flash Services PMI
Tue Nov 24 7:00am EUR German Final GDP q/q
7:45am EUR French Prelim GDP q/q
9:00am EUR German ifo Business Climate
11:00am GBP CBI Realized Sales
3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence
USD Richmond Manufacturing Index
8:00pm NZD RBNZ Financial Stability Report
Wed Nov 25 12:30am AUD Construction Work Done q/q
5:00am JPY BOJ Core CPI y/y
EUR ECB Financial Stability Review
1:30pm USD Prelim GDP q/q (second release)
USD Unemployment Claims
USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
USD Durable Goods Orders m/m
USD Goods Trade Balance
USD Prelim GDP Price Index q/q
USD Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m
3:00pm USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
USD Core PCE Price Index m/m
USD New Home Sales
USD Personal Income m/m
USD Personal Spending m/m
USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
Tentative GBP UK One Year Spending Review
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories
5:00pm USD Natural Gas Storage
7:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thu Nov 26 12:30am AUD Private Capital Expenditure q/q
7:00am EUR German GfK Consumer Climate
Tentative GBP Monetary Policy Report Hearings
12:30pm EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
All Day USD Bank Holiday
11:30pm JPY Tokyo Core CPI y/y
Fri Nov 27 7:45am EUR French Consumer Spending m/m
EUR French Prelim CPI m/m

Datos económicos y resultados clave

Date Company Event
23-Nov Prosus N.V. Q2 2021 Earnings
24-Nov Medtronic PLC Q2 2021 Earnings
23-Nov Naspers Interim results
25-Nov Deere & Co. (John Deere) Q4 2020 Earnings
24-Nov Xiaomi Q3 2020 Earnings
24-Nov VMware Inc. Q3 2021 Earnings
24-Nov Autodesk Inc. Q3 2021 Earnings
24-Nov Analog Devices Inc. Q4 2020 Earnings
24-Nov Dell Technologies Q3 2021 Earnings
24-Nov Compass Group plc Finals
24-Nov AO World Interim results
24-Nov Best Buy Co. Inc. Q3 2021 Earnings
24-Nov HP Inc (HPQ) Q4 2020 Earnings
24-Nov Dollar Tree Inc Q3 2020 Earnings
25-Nov United Utilities Interim results

Stocks ease after Moderna rally, Tesla leaps on S&P500 inclusion, OPEC eyes extending cuts

More good news on the vaccine front has delivered another confidence boost to global markets with Wall Street building on Friday’s record highs and European markets nearing breakout from the post-trough bottom-to-top range.

Moderna’s positive vaccine news came exactly one week after Pfizer’s with much the same impact on the market. It may not quite be the game-changer of a week ago, but it adds further support to some of the back-to-normal, value type rotation which has been the outstanding impact on markets so far and had reasserted itself by last Friday after a mid-week pause.

The vaccine news sent the FTSE 100 to close to its best level since the pandemic-induced sell-off.

The early June intra-day high at 6,511 is now only a few points above, whilst the record close at 6,484 is near. News that Moderna’s vaccine is almost 95% effective was not a huge surprise to the markets but underscores the faith being shown in the rotational trade out of growth and into value areas of the market.

This would tend to favour the FTSE vs say the DAX.

Again, as we saw with the Pfizer news, the Nasdaq lagged the Russell 2000, but all boats were lifted by the vaccine update. Among the biggest risers yesterday dwell in the airline/travel arena Rolls-Royce, Whitbread, IAG and Melrose, whilst Carnival, Norwegian Cruise Line, Royal Caribbean and United Airlines led the way on the S&P 500 and Boeing notched big gains at the top of the Dow. Ocado and JustEat declined

In the meantime, we may need to endure more hardships – imminent vaccines are the perfect cover for maintaining lockdowns for longer. The economic recovery is going to be patchy and uneven across sectors as lockdowns and other restrictions – not least the fear factor remaining a strong driver of consumer habits – but the vaccine-led ‘back to normal’ direction is now at last clear.

Poor old AstraZeneca shares fell as Moderna (+9% on the day) made the announcement – there is a risk that the high efficacy of the Pfizer/Biontech and Moderna trials kills off some competing candidates in development.

Pfizer shares also fell 4% as its vaccine is not the only show in town. Biontech says its vaccine will be ready for delivery in early January.

The IATA warned that travel restrictions would curtail the rollout of vaccines – perhaps talking its book a bit but it’s got a point when it calls for the reopening of key passenger routes.

Today, European markets were flat to a little negative as investors looked to take stock of the pre-vaccine, post-pandemic outlook. Asian shares were mixed but of note the Nikkei 225 in Japan trades at its highest in almost 30 years.

Tesla shares in Frankfurt rose over 10% after gaining 13% in US after-hours trade following news that the car maker will be admitted to the S&P 500 in December. It’s now less than 10% off its all-time high. Talk of possible inclusion in the S&P 500 was a big factor in driving the stock higher earlier this year and the disappointment of being initially snubbed left the shares down. Inclusion in the index will require funds to buy the stock.

Airbnb announced plans to press on with its stock market listing this year despite the obvious hit to the travel sector from the pandemic.

In a filing on Monday the company reported it had made a profit of $219 million in the third quarter, on $1.34 billion in revenue. This was down on a small amount from the $227 million in profit during the same quarter last year – its only profitable quarter in 2019 – which was on $1.65 billion in revenue.

However, the first half of the year was exceptionally tough for Airbnb as it chalked up net losses of $916 million on revenue of $1.18 billion. It plans to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker ABNB.

The Asian recovery story has been helping to lift the mood – China industrial production up 6.9% in the 12 months to October and Japan’s 5% Q3 GDP rebound are encouraging, whilst a mega trade pact involving 15 key Asian economies is fuelling optimism. Greater Chinese influence in the region is assured – good for GDP but not so good for many other aspects of free society.

The euro shrugged off fears of a full-blown crisis within the EU after Hungary and Poland vetoed the €1.8tn budget and the €750 pandemic recovery fund. As ever with the EU, a way will be found to get around the problem. But it does raise a risk that the ultimate fund is punier than it might have been and arrives far too late. EURUSD trades at week highs above 1.1870 at send time.

Brexit – the endgame approaches. We are in the final few days of talks if, realistically, both sides want to get the treaty ratified at home.

The departure of Dominic Cummings is a problem for the UK government as it seems to strengthen the ‘deal at any cost’ voices within, which weakens the British position and likely as not has only led to the EU hardening its stance.

Expect lots of sources comments on the wires reflecting the posturing that is still going on, but the real work is taking place out of the public gaze. David Frost, the UK’s top negotiator, is reported to have said a deal could be done by next Tuesday.

Cable is steady at 1.32.

Rear-view economic data is meaningless right now due to the combination of near-term lockdowns scrubbing a few percentage points off activity and growth, and the prospect of vaccines seeing everything back to normal next year.

Nevertheless, US retail sales on tap later seen at +0.5% (+0.6% core).

Retailers have done well during the pandemic as consumers have spent less on experiences like holidays and dining out and more on stuff from gadgets to groceries.

But how have consumers in the US fared since the end of $600-a-week stimulus cheques? September saw a blow-out for the sector as retail sales grew at the fastest pace in three months, rising 1.9% after a +0.6% move in August.

Consumers have built up a lot of savings and are ready to deploy these in the economy – October may see another strong month though the election may be a factor.

In September department stores sales rose 9.7%, whilst clothing sales were up 11%, but are still down 7.3% and 12.5% respectively on last year. Meanwhile, Fed chair Jay Powell is to deliver a keynote speech at the 25th Bay Area Business Hall of Fame event, where Nancy Pelosi will be attending.

Oil prices were supported as the JMMC meetings continue with a clear indication that OPEC and allies are looking to postpone the planned increase in production in January by several months.

As part of the deal struck back in April between OPEC and allies led by Russia, daily production cuts would be reduced by 2 million barrels per day from January.

However, with demand slowing amid fresh lockdowns and stifled consumer confidence, it’s thought that OPEC+ will maintain cuts of 7.7 million bpd for a further three to six months, instead of tapering the cut to 5.7 million bpd in January. Forecasts for weaker demand in 2021, with the surplus seen at a max of 1.5m bpd vs 0.2bpd under previous forecast, indicate that OPEC+ will need to act.

Adelanto semanal: los datos de consumo estadounidenses comparten el foco con las ganancias y ventas minoristas

Se alcanzará un acuerdo en torno al brexit esta semana? No lo sabemos: las negociaciones prosiguen de momento, pero el tiempo apremia. Entretanto, esta semana estaremos atentos a los datos de consumo estadounidenses, así como a las cifras de las ventas minoristas de octubre y a los últimos resultados de Wal-Mart, Home Depot y Target, entre otras empresas.

El brexit y la incertidumbre

En el momento de escribir estas líneas, las negociaciones del brexit continúan, pero no parece que vayan a concluir pronto. De cara a la galería, todo sigue igual, pero ambas partes aún no han logrado acercar posturas en cuanto a las denominadas condiciones de competencia equitativas y a los derechos de pesca. Como es habitual, la libra será susceptible al riesgo de publicación de noticias adversas. El GBP/USD repuntó la semana pasada hasta los 1,33 en lo que supone un máximo desde principios de septiembre. Sin embargo, ¿qué posición adoptará el mercado en caso de un brexit sin acuerdo (bautizado como cliff-edge) cuando el periodo de transición finalice a finales de año?

Ganancias y ventas minoristas en EE. UU.

Esta semana conoceremos la evolución de la confianza de los consumidores estadounidenses, además de las cifras de ventas minoristas de octubre y los últimos resultados de algunas de las empresas minoristas más importantes, como Wal-Mart, Target, Home Depot, Lowe’s y TJX. La pandemia ha favorecido a los minoristas, ya que el gasto de los consumidores ha fluido más hacia los bienes tangibles, como dispositivos electrónicos o alimentación, en detrimento de las experiencias, como en viajes o restauración. Sin embargo, ¿cuál ha sido el comportamiento de los consumidores en EE. UU. sin la ayuda de 600 $ semanales?

Septiembre fue un mes vertiginoso: el ritmo de crecimiento de las ventas minoristas fue el más rápido en tres meses, pasando del 0,6 % en agosto al 1,9 %. El ahorro de los consumidores ha aumentado considerablemente y pronto lo gastarán: octubre puede revelarse como otro mes halagüeño, aunque las elecciones pueden pasar factura. Las ventas en centros comerciales crecieron un 9,7 %, mientras que la venta de ropa ascendió un 11 %, aunque aún se mantienen, respectivamente, un 7,3 % y un 12,5% por debajo de los niveles del año pasado.

La rotación en el punto de mira

La semana pasada, observamos una importante huida de los valores de crecimiento y un gran impulso de los valores cíclicos y de valor ante las novedades en torno a la vacuna de Pfizer, que impulsó la reflación. Aunque, conforme avanzaba la semana, se moderaron los flujos, el Nasdaq 100 se vio presionado, mientras que los valores industriales y de pequeña capitalización del Russell 2000 presentaron un buen comportamiento. La renta variable europea también experimentó un rally, dado que el FTSE 100 alcanzó máximos de varios meses con sus sólidos componentes cíclicos. Descubra la predicción de los principales bancos de inversión de Wall Street acerca de la evolución de los mercados este año y en 2021.

Para terminar…

¿Seguirá Trump adelante con sus denuncias de fraude electoral? Actualmente, Georgia recuenta manualmente los votos. El mercado prácticamente ha dejado de tener en cuenta al presidente, pero ¿acaso los inversores se muestran demasiados confiados en que se producirá una crisis constitucional en el país? La verdad es que la mayoría de los republicanos reconoce su derrota, pero no perderán de vista la segunda vuelta de la votación al Senado en Georgia, que tendrá lugar en enero: no pierden la esperanza de que Trump pueda lograr los votos suficientes para contrarrestar la victoria demócrata. De hecho, si el Partido Demócrata se hace también con el Senado, sus escaños quedarán repartidos equitativamente y el voto de calidad le corresponderá a la Vicepresidenta.

Principales datos económicos de esta semana

 

Date  Time (GMT)  Currency   Event 
Sun Nov 15  11:50pm  JPY  Prelim GDP Price Index y/y 
    JPY  Prelim GDP q/q 
Mon Nov 16  12:01am  GBP  Rightmove HPI m/m 
  2:00am  CNH  Fixed Asset Investment 
    CNH Industrial Production y/y 
    CNH  Retail Sales y/y 
    CNH  Unemployment Rate 
  4:30am  JPY  Revised Industrial Production m/m 
    USD  Empire State Manufacturing Index 
  3:30pm  AUD  CB Leading Index m/m 
Tue Nov 17  12:30am  AUD  Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 
    USD  Core Retail Sales m/m 
    USD  Retail Sales m/m 
    USD  Import Prices m/m 
  2:15pm  USD  Capacity Utilization Rate 
    USD  Industrial Production m/m 
Wed Nov 18  12:30am  AUD  Wage Price Index q/q 
  7:00am  GBP  CPI y/y 
    GBP  Core CPI y/y 
    GBP  PPI Input m/m 
    GBP  PPI Output m/m 
    GBP  RPI y/y 
  9:30am  GBP  HPI y/y 
  10:00am  EUR  Final CPI y/y 
    EUR  Final Core CPI y/y 
  Tentative  GBP  Bank of England Monetary Policy Report Hearings 
  1:30pm  CAD  CPI m/m 
    USD  Building Permits 
    USD  Housing Starts 
  3:30pm  USD  Crude Oil Inventories 
Thu Nov 19  12:30am  AUD  Employment Change 
    AUD  Unemployment Rate 
  7:00am  CHF  Trade Balance 
  9:00am  EUR  Current Account 
  1:30pm  CAD  ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 
    USD  Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 
    USD  Unemployment Claims 
  3:00pm  USD  CB Leading Index m/m 
    USD  Existing Home Sales 
  3:30pm  USD  Natural Gas Storage 
  11:30pm  JPY  National Core CPI y/y 
Fri Nov 20  12:01am  GBP  GfK Consumer Confidence 
  12:30am  JPY  Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  7:00am  EUR  German PPI m/m 
    GBP  Retail Sales m/m 
    GBP  Public Sector Net Borrowing 
  1:30pm  CAD  Core Retail Sales m/m 
    CAD  Retail Sales m/m 
  3:00pm  EUR  Consumer Confidence 
  All Day  All  G20 Meetings 

 

Principales informes de resultados de esta semana

No se pierda nuestra Serie especial diaria de la temporada de ganancias en XRay para tener toda la información.

17-Nov  Walmart  Q3 2021 Earnings 
18-Nov  NVIDIA  Q3 2021 Earnings 
17-Nov  Home Depot  Q3 2020 Earnings 
18-Nov  Lowe’s Companies  Q3 2020 Earnings 
19-Nov  Intuit Inc  Q1 2021 Earnings 
20-Nov  Naspers  Q2 2021 Earnings 
18-Nov  Target Corp  Q3 2020 Earnings 
18-Nov  TJX Cos. Inc  Q3 2021 Earnings 
16-Nov  Vodafone Group  Q2 2021 Earnings 

 

Adelanto semanal: Elecciones y brexit, ¿la saga continua?

La carrera presidencial estadounidense debería haber finalizado y los inversores se centrarán en las consecuencias específicas en las políticas, pero no parece que Donald Trump vaya a irse pacíficamente. ¿Acusarán los mercados una prolongación de la indecisión del resultado electoral? Hasta ahora, con un Senado republicano, impera el apetito por el riesgo. Entretanto, las negociaciones en torno al brexit serán cardinales para la libra y la renta variable británica, puesto que el tiempo para alcanzar un acuerdo se acaba.

¿Abandonará Trump la presidencia pacíficamente?

Probablemente no, pero ¿acaso importa? Mientras escribimos estas líneas, las probabilidades apuntan a una derrota de Donald Trump en las elecciones, pero parece que no se quiere ir sin pelear en los tribunales. El presidente explorará todas las vías, pero no sabemos si habrá algún mecanismo que logre evitar que Joe Biden le suceda. La semana pasada, los mercados se mostraron aliviados ante una Casa Blanca demócrata y un Senado republicano: es positivo para las acciones de crecimiento, como las principales tecnológicas, pero no tanto para las acciones de valor.

Brexit

El tiempo se acaba: los pares del GBP son susceptibles a un importante riesgo de la publicación de noticias adversas en torno al brexit, pero para el cable (o el par GBP/USD) el 1,30 se mantiene como el punto de anclaje. Ambas partes quieren llegar a un acuerdo, pero ninguna a toda costa. En cualquier caso, se podría decir que la respuesta monetaria y fiscal y ante el daño económico en realidad ofrece cobertura a una salida sin acuerdo. El encuentro informal entre jefes de Estado de Berlín previsto para el 16 de noviembre —para entonces, Macron, Merkel y compañía querrán que haya un texto listo para firmar— atraerá todas las miradas, pero antes estaremos al tanto del desfile de titulares.

Principales datos económicos de esta semana

En el ámbito de los datos económicos, la mayoría están desfasados dado que ahora Europa está confinada y EE. UU. está lidiando con las secuelas de las elecciones presidenciales. Estaremos pendientes del PIB británico y de la decisión sobre los tipos de interés del Banco de la Reserva de Nueva Zelanda el miércoles.

Acceda al calendario económico en la plataforma para consultar la lista completa de eventos.

Date  Time (GMT)  Currency  Event 
Mon Nov 9  5:00am  JPY  Leading Indicators 
  6:45am  CHF  Unemployment Rate 
  7:00am  EUR  German Trade Balance 
  9:30am  EUR  Sentix Investor Confidence 
  11:50pm  JPY  Bank Lending y/y 
    JPY  Current Account 
Tue Nov 10  12:01am  GBP  BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y 
  12:30am  AUD  NAB Business Confidence 
  1:30am  CNH  CPI y/y 
    CNH  PPI y/y 
  7:00am  GBP  Claimant Count Change 
    GBP  Average Earnings Index 3m/y 
    GBP  Unemployment Rate 
  7:45am  EUR  French Industrial Production m/m 
  9:00am  EUR  Italian Industrial Production m/m 
  10:00am  EUR  ZEW Economic Sentiment 
    EUR  German ZEW Economic Sentiment 
  11:00am  USD  NFIB Small Business Index 
  3:00pm  USD  JOLTS Job Openings 
  6:01pm  USD  10-y Bond Auction 
  11:30pm  AUD  Westpac Consumer Sentiment 
  11:50pm  JPY  M2 Money Stock y/y 
Wed Nov 11  1:00am  NZD  Official Cash Rate 
    NZD  RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement 
    NZD  RBNZ Rate Statement 
  2:00am  NZD  RBNZ Press Conference 
  6:00am  JPY  Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y 
  All Day  EUR  French Bank Holiday 
  All Day  CAD  Bank Holiday 
  All Day  USD  Bank Holiday 
  Tentative  GBP  NIESR GDP Estimate 
  11:50pm  JPY  Core Machinery Orders m/m 
    JPY  PPI y/y 
Thu Nov 12  12:01am  GBP  RICS House Price Balance 
  4:30am  JPY  Tertiary Industry Activity m/m 
  7:00am  EUR  German Final CPI m/m 
    GBP  Prelim GDP q/q 
    GBP  Construction Output m/m 
    GBP  GDP m/m 
    GBP  Goods Trade Balance 
    GBP  Index of Services 3m/3m 
    GBP  Industrial Production m/m 
    GBP  Manufacturing Production m/m 
    GBP  Prelim Business Investment q/q 
  9:00am  EUR  ECB Economic Bulletin 
  10:00am  EUR  Industrial Production m/m 
  All Day  EUR  Eurogroup Meetings 
  1:30pm  CAD  NHPI m/m 
    USD  CPI m/m 
    USD  Core CPI m/m 
    USD  Unemployment Claims 
  4:00pm  USD  Crude Oil Inventories 
  7:00pm  USD  Federal Budget Balance 
  9:30pm  NZD  BusinessNZ Manufacturing Index 
  9:45pm  NZD  FPI m/m 
Fri Nov 13  7:30am  CHF  PPI m/m 
  7:45am  EUR  French Final CPI m/m 
  All Day  EUR  ECOFIN Meetings 
  10:00am  EUR  Flash Employment Change q/q 
    EUR  Flash GDP q/q 
    EUR  Trade Balance 
  1:30pm  USD  Core PPI m/m 
    USD  PPI m/m 
  2:30pm  GBP  CB Leading Index m/m 
  3:00pm  USD  Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 
    USD  Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 
  3:30pm  USD  Natural Gas Storage 

 

Principales informes de resultados de esta semana

No se pierda nuestra Serie especial diaria de la temporada de ganancias en XRay para tener toda la información.

Date  Company   
9-Nov  McDonald’s Corp.  Q3 2020 Earnings 
9-Nov  Softbank Corp.  Q2 2020 Earnings 
10-Nov  adidas  Q3 2020 Earnings 
10-Nov  Deutsche Post AG  Q3 2020 Earnings 
11-Nov  Tencent Holdings Ltd  Q3 2020 Earnings 
11-Nov  Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp  Q3 2020 Earnings 
11-Nov  Air Products and Chemicals Inc.  Q4 2020 Earnings 
11-Nov  Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd  Q3 2020 Earnings 
12-Nov  Walt Disney  Q4 2020 Earnings 
12-Nov  Cisco Inc.  Q1 2021 Earnings 
12-Nov  Siemens AG  Q4 2020 Earnings 
12-Nov  Deutsche Telekom AG  Q3 2020 Earnings 
12-Nov  Merck KGaA  Q3 2020 Earnings 

 

Trump returns, big tech faces antitrust concerns

Don’t be afraid: President Trump returned to the White House, but it might not be for much longer. Whilst Trump almost revelled in his victory over the virus, telling Americans not to fear it, Joe Biden’s lead in the polls is rising. Trump has work to do in the battlegrounds to swing back in his favour.

Wall Street climbs on stimulus hopes

Wall Street rallied as we saw decent bid come through for risk that left the dollar lower and benchmark Treasury yields higher amid hopes that policymakers in Washington are close to doing a deal on stimulus. House Democrat leader Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin spoke yesterday but failed to reach agreement on a fresh stimulus package.

Negotiations are due to resume today and whilst the mood seems to be better, getting agreement so close to the election will be tough but not impossible.

The S&P 500 rose 1.8% to close at the high of the day above the  3,400 level but the intra-day high at 3,428 from Sep 16th remains the top of the channel that bulls will look to take out – failure here may call for a retreat towards the middle of the range again.

Stimulus hopes will drive sentiment, but election risk is also a factor. Vix futures for Oct at $30.86 compared with November’s $32.23.

European markets turned lower in early trade on Tuesday as bulls failed to follow through on the relief rally on Monday – still very much range bound.

As noted last week the key is the 3300 level on the Stoxx 50 and 6,000 on the FTSE 100 to signal the market has broken the range. The S&P 500 is closer to doing it.

Benchmark yields rose firmly with 10-year Treasuries breaking out of the recent dull range towards 0.80%, settling at 0.77% near 4-month highs. The 30-year yield also hit its highest since Jun 9th.

With polling and odds improving for a Democrat clean sweep, the market is starting to price in more aggressive stimulus, greater issuance and bigger deficits. Fed chair Jay Powell speaks later today about the US economic outlook at the National Association of Business Economics annual meeting.

Cable eyes Brexit latest Brexit headlines

Brexit talks rumble on – are we closer to a deal? Deadlines are fast approaching and on the whole it seems more likely than not that we at least see a skinny deal or sorts.

EC vice president Maros Sefcovic has been on the wires this morning underlining that ‘full and timely’ implementation of the withdrawal agreement is not up for debate. The British Parliament and government say otherwise.

Meanwhile the European Parliament is not budging on its demands over the EU budget – whilst the recovery fund was announced to much fanfare, it needs to be delivered for Europe’s economy to recover more quickly than it is.

Democrats to target tech giants

Big tech stocks need monitoring after reports that a Democrat-led House panel will call for an effective breakup of giants like Apple, Amazon and Alphabet. It comes after a long anti-trust investigation by the panel led by Democratic Representative David Cicilline.

If approved and legislation is enacted, it would be the most significant reform in this area since Teddy Roosevelt. Certainly, the concentration of capital in a handful of big tech stocks is worrisome for lots of reason. Even if approved, getting from draft to legislation will not be easy. However, if there were a Democrat clean sweep, it could open the door to some aggressive reforms.

As I noted over a year ago, given that the FAANGs have been at the front of the market expansion in recent years, any breakup or threat of it may act as a drag on broader market sentiment. Calls have been growing louder and louder for the authorities to at least look at antitrust issues for the tech giants.

Political pressure is building – lawmakers sniff votes in tackling big tech. The shift really happened two years ago with the Facebook scandals, which really broke the illusion that Silicon Valley is in it for the little guy.

AUDUSD sinks on dovish RBA meeting

The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates on hold, refraining from a cut below 0.25% but maintaining a decidedly dovish bias that still indicates a further cut may occur this year.

The RBA said it will keep monetary policy easy “as long as is required” and will not increase the cash rate target until progress is being made towards full employment and it is confident that inflation will be sustainably within the 2–3% target band. It kept its options open and stressed that it will continue to consider additional monetary easing.

After a decent run since the Sep 25th low AUDUSD was smacked down from its 50-day SMA at 0.7210 to trade around 0.7150. Currently contained by its 50- and 100-day SMAs.

The dollar index broke the horizontal support and the 21-day SMA, with the price action testing the trendline off the September lows. After the RSI trend breach and the MACD bearish crossover flagged yesterday was confirmed. 50-day SMA around 93.25 is the next main support.

The softer dollar gave some support to GBPUSD as it tests the top of the range and big round number and Fibonacci resistance at 1.30 this morning. Markets are also pushing back expectations for negative rates in the UK, which may be feeding through to a stronger pound.

Brexit risks remain but the odds of a deal seem to be better than evens, at least a ‘skinny’ deal that keeps dollar-parity wolves from the door.

The weaker dollar, higher inflation outlook is pushing up gold prices, which have broken above $1,900 but faces immediate resistance at the 21-day SMA on $1,916. Yesterday’s potential MACD bullish crossover has been confirmed.

Sterling’s RoRo Yo-Yo day

The pound endured some wild whipsaws today on a range of Brexit headlines. First sterling slid through the morning as the EU lodged its legal complaint over the internal market bill. GBPUSD hit the LOD at 1.2820 by 10am.

But then GBPUSD rallied aggressively through 1.295 on reports officials were close to entering the tunnel, with the FT’s Whitehall correspondent quoting one as saying: ‘We’ve gone from about 30% chance of a deal to the other way around. I think it’s almost certain we’ll enter the tunnel.’ The implication that officials see a 70% likelihood of a deal got sterling bulls running the stops.

Sterling pushed up to a fresh two-week high, but the 1.30 round number was not tested as the rally ran out of legs at 1.2980. The 1.30 level is the big horizontal and Fibonacci resistance to unlock the move to the mid-1.30s once a Brexit deal is signed.

However, cable was back down almost one big figure again, taking a 1.28 handle after an EU official said there is no sign of a landing zone on fisheries, or level playing field. At send time GBPUSD was sitting on the 1.29 round number around the mid-point for the day.

What we learned from this:

Sterling is on the hook to some wild price swings on headlines, which we knew would be the case. No one wants to try 1.30 unless there are more concrete rumours from ‘sources’. Talks wrap up tomorrow – more market-moving headlines to come.

Twitter is a very good source of information for trading – cable shot higher a couple of minutes after the initial 70/30% tweet. Algos were slow to respond for once – shows they don’t read Twitter very well – yet (H/T @PriapusIQ).

It does seem like there are tentative signs of ‘progress’ despite all the chuntering around the internal market bill, which looks increasingly like a sideshow to the main event of trade talks.

In short, a deal seems more likely than not. I’ve moved from 60/40 to 50/50 after the IMB to back to 60/40 again.

Equity markets hungover ahead of Presidential debate + Brexit breakthrough?

There is the whiff of a hangover for investors this morning as European shares stumbled after an exuberant rally in the previous session that left the major bourses around 2-3% higher to start the week. We haven’t made it back to the key mid-Sep levels and bulls may be looking at downside risks in the shape of the slowing economic recovery and pre-election jitters.

Nancy Pelosi and Steve Mnuchin may be able to cut one last stimulus deal before the election, but it still looks like the odds of it passing the House and Senate are less than evens.

The FTSE 100 and DAX both fell 1% and the failure by bulls to build any momentum from these one-day bounces is a sign of tepid sentiment.

First presidential debate in focus

It’s all going to kick off later tonight, as the first US presidential debate takes place in Cleveland. The fun starts at 9pm US eastern time and will last one and a half hours. Trump won in Ohio, a typical battleground rust belt state, by eight points last time around but it is leaning towards Biden in 2020, according to the polls.

But we know polls only tell a portion of the story – it’s in the battlegrounds where it counts.

JPM did an investor survey of potential election outcomes – 79% said the worst-case scenario is a Democrat president and Senate, whilst 49% said the best case would be a Republican president and Senate.

We know which way Wall Street is leaning, but there is not a clear sense that the result will materially impact the course of equity markets. As discussed last week, whilst a Democrat clean sweep – the Blue-nami – would mean higher taxes and regulation, other factors may play into the bulls’ favour, notably the chance of a comprehensive fiscal package.

More importantly, the global recovery from the pandemic, the Fed and earnings will be key drivers for equities after the election. The only thing the market wants is to get the election out of the way – the real danger to near-term valuations would be a long period of legal disputes post-election, which may mean price action continues to chop sideways within the range set in the second half of September.

Vix futures are starting to look interesting again with the spread from Oct to Nov widening to $2 with the near month trading at $31 and November at $33, with December at $31.

Sterling up on hopes of breakthrough in Brexit talks

Brexit breakthrough? Hopes of a deal are on the up, amid reports that the EU is prepared to ditch its requirement to reach a broad agreement before drafting a text. This means they can start on the joint legal text whilst there are still a few outstanding issues that need to be resolved.

This has positive overtones, but the two sides still appear no closer on these critical last steps.  European Commission Vice President Maros Sefcovic said yesterday: “The UK’s positions are far apart from what the EU can accept.”

Sterling drove to a two-week high, with GBPUSD rising to 1.29 before paring gains to sit around 1.2850 this morning.

Bank of England deputy governor warns over negative rates

But it the rally was less about Brexit than it was about comments from Dave Ramsden, the deputy governor of the Bank of England, who sounded a strong sound of caution over negative interest rates. The MPC seems to be airing its dirty laundry in public – the comments came only a day after Silvana Tenreyro pointedly backed negative rates.

Anyways it looks there is some clear ideological disputes among rate setters that needs to be worked out over the autumn, implying as Andrew Bailey suggested last week that negative rates are not likely on the near horizon, albeit they are being considered actively.

The problem for the Bank would be an unemployment crisis into Christmas that could put pressure on the MPC to act.

The dollar peeled off its recent two-month highs in the 94.60 region which is offering the near-term resistance. The pullback called for last week has been slow to emerge with a couple of retests of this level but near-term weakness is certainly becoming more evident.

Elsewhere, oil markets remain trapped in a tight range but could be heading for a pullback as global inventories start to build. API numbers later today, EIA numbers on tap Wednesday. Watch the Chinese numbers too as global inventories swing to builds.

Surging cases numbers cripple demand, whether rational or not. Contango spreads indicate softer demand and inventory builds ahead. The price action alone on WTI is a not a pretty picture for bulls.

Coming up, there is a slew of Fed speakers later today with Clarida, Quarles, Harker and Williams on the slate. Richard Clarida is probably the most important, with the Fed governor due to speak on Future Considerations for Treasury Market Resilience. Meanwhile, the Treasury market is completely dead as yields remain trapped in their tight ranges.

Chart: The S&P 500 is still trapped by the moving averages

The market rallied 1.6% on Monday and ran slap into the 50-day SMA, shy of the 21-day SMA. We have to see whether this marks the swing high and calls for another pullback.

Risk appetite resurfaces, HSBC shares soar

Risk appetite has returned after last week’s turbulence. European bourses rose 1-2% in early trade on Monday after Wall Street’s rally on Friday lifted the boats. The S&P 500 was still down for the week, but with the broad market -10% from its all-time highs at the low, those looking for a correction after the hot summer rally may have found it already.

The market tested 3200, which is where it reached at the peak in June before the pullback and where it closed 2019. Bonds have not taken part in the drawdown – US 10-year Treasuries have barely budged this month and remain stuck around 0.66%. This might imply that the September sell-off is more about a repricing of risk assets based on valuations and profit-taking after the summer run-up, rather than deeper fears about a prolonged stagnation in the economy.

Volatility likely on US presidential debate, NFP this week

Nevertheless, with the first US presidential debate and the last jobs report before the election coming this week, there is ample scope for markets to remain volatile. Until we clear the highs from a fortnight ago – 3400 on SPX, around 3300 on Stoxx 50 and 6,000 on the FTSE, the downside bias remains.

Rising numbers of coronavirus cases imply a softer recovery, depressed consumer sentiment and the need for more fiscal support to generate upside. Markets don’t seem to be moving too much on vaccine news and rumours – there may be a realisation that a vaccine is not a silver bullet that will repair all the damage done in 2020, even if it makes 2021 look brighter.

Ping An adds to HSBC stake

HSBC shares rallied 10% after Ping An Asset Management increased its stake in the bank. HSBC’s largest shareholder only marginally bolstered its holding to 8% from 7.95%, but the vote of confidence translated into a very substantial rally for the shares both in Hong Kong and London.

HSBC had lately sunk to a 25-year low after being named in reports relating to money laundering, so maybe this was some simple averaging-in by Ping An. Shares are only back to where they were a fortnight ago – when stocks have been beaten down as much as HSBC they are often ripe for larger percentage swings as investors try to figure out what is the real value.

If you think Britain’s banks are fundamentally sound, shares are priced compellingly. Lloyds at 25p trades at 0.35 of book value.

BoE Tenreyro defends negative rates

Bank of England rate setter Silvana Tenreyro defended negative rates in an article over the weekend, in what we could construe as a careful piece of choreography to communicate the bank’s shift towards a state of outright financial repression.

She said there were ‘encouraging’ signs that there are no longer the same obstacles to cutting rates to below zero. But she’s been positive on negative rates for several months so we should probably not read too much into her comments.

Andrew Bailey remains the most important voice of the MPC and whilst he did not seek to quell speculation last week that the Bank is considering how to use negative rates, he did stress that it’s not in a hurry to pull them out the toolbox.

Brexit talks in focus for GBP

Brexit talks resume this week and despite all the noise, both sides want a deal. Whilst the UK threw a spanner in the works with the internal market bill, the real substance of the trade deal is what matters. On that front the EU and UK are about 90% there. The problem is the remaining elements and without these sorted there is no deal.

Nevertheless there is hope that they will enter the ‘tunnel’: the period of closed, detailed talks that would lead to a deal. If there is white smoke this week then sterling will rally strongly, but I would expect this to drag on for a while longer, for deadlines to be missed and for GBP crosses to remain exposed to negative headline risk.

The euro retained its downside bias after more jawboning from the ECB.  Ignazio Visco, Italy’s central bank governor, said the euro’s recent strengthening is “worrying us because it generates further downward pressures on prices at a time when inflation is already low”. A slate of ECB speakers this week are likely to lean hard on governments to deliver fiscal support.

Chart: GBPUSD tests near-term resistance at 1.28

Nikola shares tumble (again)

Volume leaders today include Apple as normal, as well as Peloton after a blow-out earnings report – EPS of $0.27 almost treble the street consensus of $0.10 indicating the stay-at-home Covid trend is playing out well for the brand. A new cheaper version of its bike should help, too. Apple shares were flat, with Peloton up just +1%, well below its highs.

Hidenburg Research slams Nikola, shares tumble

Nikola shares fell about 15% on high volumes after the Hindenburg Research article. Whilst shares had fallen yesterday following publication, it seems investors have taken fright at the lack of any detailed refutation by Nikola.

A statement today from the company only said the allegations are not accurate and described the report as a ‘hit job’. If it is a hit job, it’s been a very well timed one with the stock having jumped only a couple of days prior on the tie-up with GM. But the lack of detail from the company so far has left investors unimpressed.

Without being able to comment on the details of the report, short attacks can and do happen, and more often than often there is rarely smoke without fire.

Equities move higher into the weekend

Elsewhere, the S&P 500 ticked higher after testing yesterday’s cash close at 3,339, with the 50-day line offering further support untested at 3,321.90. Yesterday’s tap on the 21-day SMA at 3,425 looks a long way off. Nasdaq also higher as risk is catching some bid into the weekend.

European equity markets are closing the day out with some decent weekly gains in the bag. Overall we have seen a real divergence between the US and Europe this week with equity markets this side of the pond doing better. Partly that is down to the rotation out of tech, but also we need to be aware of election risk that will play an increasing role in driving sentiment over the next month and a half.

Crude oil found some bid as the risk sentiment improved as the US session progressed.

Listening to the usual talking heads it seems there is more appetite for value after the three-day tech rout saw the penny drop for many that valuations had gotten out of hand. Let’s see how that goes with Ocado and Next on stage next week.

Brexit headline risk keeps pressure on GBPUSD

In FX, DXY ran out of gas at 93.38 as it tries to make another stab at the top of the descending wedge. GBPUSD tried three times to break below 1.2770 today but the level has just about held for now – sterling remains exposed to Brexit headline risks and bulls may be thin on the ground.

Post fix it looks pretty meek and liable to further downside into the weekend with UK-EU trade talks next week in focus. The current consolidation range looks pretty bearish and flaggy but we should always caution that sellers can get exhausted into the weekend just much as buyers can and there may be some profits being taken.

Sterling stabilises after Brexit furore, equities steady

Sterling stabilised after testing new six-week lows yesterday following the testy exchanges around the internal market bill, but the pound remains highly exposed to negative news around Brexit talks.

The EU Commission said the bill has damaged trust and would, if adopted, represent a serious breach of the withdrawal agreement and of international law. The British position remains resolute. The UK government legal opinion is that it remains a sovereign matter of UK domestic law.

This is serious brinkmanship, and trade talks appear close to collapse. Moreover, it is opposed by the devolved regimes in Scotland and Wales – if it passes and there is no deal, the relationship between Westminster and Holyrood will be close to breaking point and it could accelerate and heighten demands for Scottish independence.

The EU wants the offending bill pulled by the end of the month or they may launch legal action – but stopped short of saying they will walk away from the trade talks. The EU doesn’t want to be the first to walk away. Nevertheless, there has been a material escalation of no-deal risks, which was reflected in the pound’s price action yesterday.

The clock is ticking and whilst we continue to stress that a deal will always look further away than it is due to the nature of the posturing and public statements, the move on the internal market bill comes somewhat out of left-field (although it was actually reported back in Feb that the govt was working on it) and it does not pertain to the talks themselves.

We should also note that it is not guaranteed to pass both British chambers in its current form. Europe’s finance ministers are gathering today so expect a lot of headlines criticising the British – plus ca change. The good news is there is UK-Japan trade deal ‘in principle’ – hopefully that means cheaper wagu steak.

Euro up after ECB meeting, UK GDP disappoints

GBPUSD dropped under 1.28 but has found some support at this level and pared back losses a touch. Against the euro, the pound plunged to its weakest since March, as the single currency also found bid after the European Central Bank sounded a bit more optimistic on the economy and a little less dovish than the market had thought.

The ECB indicated it would not overreact to the appreciation of the euro, which was a green light for the currency to rally. ECB sources suggested they don’t think the euro is overvalued and don’t want to start a currency war – let’s wait and see what happens when 1.20 gets tested again.

Meanwhile, Britain’s economy faces even greater uncertainty from Brexit as it tries to rebuild in the wake of the pandemic. GDP rose 6.6% in July, but this was short of expectations and still well below pre-pandemic levels. All areas of manufacturing, particularly distillers and car makers, saw improvements, the ONS said without a hint of irony.

In July, monthly GDP was 11.7% lower than the pre-pandemic levels seen in February 2020.

The good news is that because of the way the UK measures education in GDP numbers, means things should pick up as the number of pupils returning to school rises. It also means the decline in GDP might not be so bad compared with peers as it looks.

Among the service sector, accommodation & food services remain worst hit, but we know it got a big – albeit temporary – boost in August from the Eat Out scheme.

Impasse over US stimulus continues

European markets were flat on Friday after US markets pulled back on Thursday, declining for the fourth day in five, with the Nasdaq down another 2% and the and the S&P 500 falling 1.75% on the back of the previous session’s rally.

The resumption of the downtrend came as Senate Republicans failed to pass their $500bn stimulus package, with Democrats complaining it does not go far enough. The impasse has doused hopes Congress can agree a package in the near-term and could give a tailwind to bears who have the bit between their teeth.  US futures are higher.

Concerns about the US economy remain. US jobless claims just aren’t heading in the right direction. The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending August 22 was 29,605,064, an increase of 380,379 from the previous week. In the week to Sept 5th initial claims hit 884,000, unchanged from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 3,000 from 881,000 to 884,000. US CPI numbers out later today are the main eco event to watch, but the furore over the internal market bill is not going away.

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