US Presidential Election Weekly: Federal Reserve & US Election

US Presidential Election

Our resident political commentator, XRay regular and Blonde Money CEO Helen Thomas, takes a look at the latest big developments in the race for the White House. This week, the focus is on why the Federal Reserve’s switch to average inflation targeting could help Donald Trump in the polls over the coming weeks.

Don’t forget you can catch more great insight from Helen every week with Blonde Markets and our Election2020 Weekly shows on XRay. For all the latest election updates, including polling data, visit our US Presidential Election 2020 microsite.

US Presidential Election Weekly: Republican National Convention

US Presidential Election

Our resident political commentator, XRay regular and Blonde Money CEO Helen Thomas, takes a look at the latest big developments in the race for the White House. This week, the focus is on the Republican National Convention.

Don’t forget you can catch more great insight from Helen every week with Blonde Markets and our Election2020 Weekly shows on XRay. For all the latest election updates, including polling data, visit our US Presidential Election 2020 microsite.

Stay on top of the US Presidential Election 2020 with our new XRay show

US Presidential Election

Get the headlines and insight you need to trade the US Presidential Election with XRay, your dedicated in-platform streaming service on Marketsx. Join Blonde Money CEO and XRay regular Helen Thomas for Election2020 Weekly for a look at the biggest developments in the race for the White House.

And don’t forget you can also join Helen every week for Blonde Markets to get the wider political and macroeconomic view on what’s driving the markets.

Here’s what to expect from this week’s FOMC meeting

Forex

The Federal Open Market Committee announces its latest monetary policy decisions and guidance on Wednesday. Blonde Money CEO Helen Thomas takes a look at what the Fed might hope to achieve with its latest meeting.

Catch the latest political and macroeconomic insight from Helen each week on XRay.

Watch our exclusive XRay Talk on gold and oil with commodities guru Phil Carr

Commodities

Gold has today surged to a new record high above $1,945.00.

Last week head of trading at The Gold and Silver Club Phil Carr joined Markets.com chief market analyst Neil Wilson to discuss the current state of the commodity markets and what’s on the horizon for gold and oil in the second half of the year.

You can watch the full video below.

We’ll be hosting more talks with leading industry figures on a range of topics over the coming months. Make sure you’re signed up to Marketsx to get your invite to our next exclusive conversation and to ask your trading questions.

Blonde Money ECB and EU Summit Preview

Equities
Forex

What can we expect from this week’s European Central Bank monetary policy decision? Blonde Money CEO and founder Helen Thomas takes a look at what could be in store for markets on the back of the latest announcements, and why the ECB will be watching the upcoming EU Summit as intently as the markets will.

Get the latest macroeconomic and political insight from Helen every week on XRay.

Blonde Money US Nonfarm Payrolls Preview

Forex

Blonde Money Founder and CEO Helen Thomas explains the political impact of today’s US nonfarm payrolls report – how will President Trump use a positive or negative print to his advantage with the 2020 US Presidential Election edging closer?

Catch more insight from Helen every week with Blonde Markets on XRay.

Week Ahead: OPEC meets, Caixin PMI to reveal coronavirus impact

Equities
Week Ahead
XRay

OPEC to the rescue, Democrats approach Super Tuesday, US Nonfarm Payrolls and more on Covid-19

Welcome to your guide to the week ahead in the markets. Watch the latest week ahead video in XRay on the platform now.

OPEC to the rescue?

Oil has been hammered as the coronavirus forced factories across China to cease production and grounded flights across the globe. China is coming back online now, but crude inventories have been building amid the demand drop-off and we could be facing shutdowns in other parts of the world if the virus continues to spread.

Crude and Brent fell to their lowest levels in over 12 months last week, but hope remains that OPEC will ride to the rescue when it meets on Thursday and Friday. The current pact to cut production by 1.7 million barrels per day expires at the end of this month. There is talk of extending the deal and cutting production by another 600,000 barrels per day, but it is uncertain whether cartel ally Russia will agree to such a move.

Caixin PMI

Chinese manufacturing came back online towards the end of February, with travel data showing a larger-than-expected number of workers were able to leave their hometowns and return to work after the extended Lunar New Year holiday. The number of people travelling at the end of the month was still well below usual post-holiday levels, however. Even businesses that have reopened are facing labour shortages, supply chain disruptions, and weak demand. This week’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI will be a key measure as economists slash growth expectations and markets look for clues over how severe the economic impact of a large-scale outbreak in the US or Europe could be.

Democrats approach Super Tuesday

This week will give markets a clearer indication of which Democratic candidate is likely to challenge President Trump in this year’s election. 14 states are due to hold primaries on ‘Super Tuesday’. Only 100 delegates were assigned during three primaries last week, with Bernie Sanders securing almost half of those. A strong performance on Super Tuesday would cement his position as the frontrunner – the number of delegates up for grabs on Tuesday alone is around a third of the nearly 4,000 needed to secure the nomination. Bernie is the worst outcome as far as the markets are concerned due to his socialist policies, so any shift in voting towards more moderate candidates like Joe Biden could see markets breath a small sigh of relief.

US nonfarm payrolls

Usually the highlight of the economic calendar, this month’s nonfarm payrolls may not be so impactful. The monetary policy outlook is currently ruled by coronavirus headlines – markets are betting on a rate cut in April, if not this month, and a solid set of jobs numbers would be unlikely to materially shift those expectations. Markets are thinking about the potential economic impact of a large-scale Covid-19 outbreak in the US, so backwards-looking data may not settle many nerves

Heads-Up On Earnings

2nd March – 01.45 GMTChina Caixin Manufacturing PMI
2nd March – 08.15-09.30 GMTEurozone / UK Finalised Manufacturing PMIs
2nd March – 15.00 GMTUS ISM Manufacturing Index
3rd March – 03.30 GMTRBA Official Cash Rate Decision & Statement
3rd March BeiersdorfQ4 2019
3rd March – 10.00 GMTEurozone Flash CPI Estimate
3rd March – After MarketHewlett Packard EnterpriseQ1 20202
4th March – 00.30 GMTAustralia Quarterly GDP
4th March – 07.00 GMTDS Smith Q3 Trading Update
4th March – 08.15-09.30 GMT Eurozone / UK finalised Services PMIs
4th MarchLegal & GeneralQ4 2019
4th March – Pre-MarcketDollar TreeQ4 2019
4th March – Pre-MarketCampbell SoupQ2 2020
4th March – 15.00 GMTBank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Statement
4th March – 15.00 GMTUS ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
4th March – 15.30 GMTUS EIA Crude Oil Inventories Report
4th March – After MarketZoom Video CommunicationsQ4 2020
5th March – 00.30 GMTAustralia Trade Balance
5th March – All DayOPEC Meeting, Vienna
5th March – Pre-MarketKrogerQ4 2019
5th MarchAvivaQ4 2019
5th March – 15.00 GMTUS EIA Natural Gas Storage Report
5th March – After MarketCostco Wholesale CorpQ2 2020
6th March – 00.30 GMTAustralia Retail Sales
6th March – All DayOPEC+ Meeting, Vienna
6th March – 13.00 GMTUS Nonfarm Payrolls Report

Watch The Week Ahead on XRay

Highlights on XRay this week:
Daily –  08:15 GMT
European Morning Call
  Free Register       

March 2nd – 15.00 GMT
The Trendsignal Podcast
  Free Register    

March 3rd – 10.00 GMT
FXTrademark Course: Trading Strategies
  Free Register       

March 4th – 10:00 GMT
FXTrademark Course: 10 Laws of Trading
  Free Register       

March 6th – 13:00 GMT
Live Trade Setups with Mark Leigh
Free Register

Week Ahead: FOMC’s symmetric minutes, German sentiment, UK inflation

Week Ahead
XRay

FOMC Minutes

The last meeting of the Federal Reserve Committee saw policymakers reaffirming their commitment to letting inflation run hot in order to make up for years of lacklustre price growth. Jerome Powell told reporters after the meeting that “we wanted to underscore our commitment to 2% not being a ceiling, to inflation running symmetrically around 2% and we’re not satisfied with inflation running below 2%”. Expect more underscoring in the minutes, and perhaps more softening of the economic assessment – the post-meeting statement revised its view of consumer spending to “moderate” from “strong” in December.

Germany ZEW sentiment

Industrial production data last week raised further questions over the outlook for the Eurozone. Production fell 4.1% during 2019, and now there’s the added threat of disrupted supply chains thanks to the coronavirus outbreak. Last month’s ZEW sentiment index surged to 26.7 from 10.7 in December, but recent developments suggest that optimism may have been premature.

UK CPI

A soft inflation reading in December had seen markets divided over whether or not the Bank of England was finally about to cut interest rates, having been on hold so long due to Brexit uncertainty. In the end Governor Mark Carney left things unchanged before passing the baton to Andrew Bailey. Another round of soft inflation data this week might not be enough on its own to persuade the Monetary Policy Committee that a rate cut is necessary, but if Friday’s preliminary Markit PMIs also show weakness markets are likely to raise bets on easing soon.

Eyes on OPEC

Oil markets had been hoping that OPEC would ride to the rescue this month, bringing forward its March meeting as the coronavirus outbreak hammers global oil demand. It now seems that this is unlikely, but any rumours to the contrary will still have a strong impact on oil. A change in diagnostic methods last week saw the number of coronavirus cases and deaths race higher, but equities largely shrugged this off. It’s commodities that are bearing the brunt of the economic impact, so key risks remain for oil on virus and OPEC-related headlines.

Heads-Up On Earnings

The following companies are set to publish their quarterly earnings reports this week:

17th Feb – 21.30 GMTBHP Billiton Q2 2020
18th Feb – 00.30 GMTReserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
18th Feb – 04.00 GMTHSBC Holdings Q4 2019
18th Feb – 09.30 GMTUK Unemployment Rate, Average Earnings
18th Feb – 10.00 GMTEurozone/Germany ZEW Survey Results
18th Feb – Pre-MarketWalmartQ4 2020
18th Feb – Pre-MarketMedtronicQ3 2020
18th Feb – Pre-MarketGlencoreQ4 2019
19th Feb – 09.30 GMTUK Consumer Price Index
19th Feb – 13.30 GMTCanada Consumer Price Index
19th Feb – 19.00 GMTFOMC Meeting Minutes
20th Feb – 00.30 GMTAustralia Employment Change/Unemployment Rate
20th Feb – 01.30 GMTPeople’s Bank of China Interest Rate Decision
20th Feb – 07.00 GMTGermany GfK Consumer Confidence
20th Feb – 09.30 GMTUK Retail Sales
20th Feb – 12.30 GMTECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
20th Feb – 15.30 GMTUS EIA Natural Gas Storage
20th Feb – 16.00 GMTUS EIA Crude Oil Inventories
20th FebBAE SystemsQ4 2019
21st Feb – 06.00 GMTAllianzQ4 2019
21st Feb – 09.30 GMTUK Market Flash Composite (Inc Flash Manufacturing/Services PMIs)
21st Feb – 10.00 GMTEurozone Consumer Price Index
21st Feb – Pre-MarketDeere & CoQ1 20202

Watch the Week Ahead on XRay

Highlights on XRay this week:

Daily08.15 GMTEuropean Morning CallFreeRegister
18th Feb14.15 GMTLive Trading Room with TrendsignalFreeRegister
18th Feb16.30-17.10 GMTAsset in Focus: Oil Gold and SilverFreeRegister
19th Feb 12.00 GMT Midweek Lunch Wrap FreeRegister
21st Feb13.00 GMTLive Trade Setups with Mark LeighFreeRegister

Week Ahead: Brexit crunch time, US earnings season kicks off

Equities
Forex
Indices
Week Ahead

Welcome to your guide to the week ahead in the markets.

European Council Summit 

It’s make or break time for Brexit. EU heads of state hold their next summit this week, starting on Thursday. The meeting also marks UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s last chance to agree a Brexit deal, but the UK’s latest proposals have not met a warm reception. If nothing is forthcoming, the recently passed Benn Act obligates the PM to request an extension by Saturday at the latest. Boris seems to have some plan to circumnavigate the legislation, although Downing Street is unsurprisingly quiet on the details. 

Earnings Season 

The third quarter earnings season on Wall Street gets underway this week, with S&P 500 companies seen posting a year-on-year earnings per share decline for the third straight quarter. 

As usual banks get the season off to a start. Financials posted decent gains in Q3, boosted by a strong +4.5% gain in September.  

JP Morgan (Tuesday) is expected to deliver EPS of $2.45. In Q2 the company reported net income up 16% to $9.65 billion from last year’s $8.32 billion. EPS beat the $2.50 expected at $2.82, rising from $2.29 in the same quarter a year before. Net interest income is the concern in early September at the Barclays conference boss Jamie Dimon said he sees full-year 2019 net interest income down $500M from the last guidance.  

Citigroup (Tuesdayposted good numbers in Q2 as well with EPS of $1.95 topping the $1.80 expected, although trading revenues were down. For Q3 the Street expects EPS growth of c13% at $1.97 a share. Revenues are expected to rise a little less than 1% to $18.54bn. 

Wells Fargo (Tuesday) beat in Q2 but lower net interest income and comments about higher expenses acted as a drag. EPS for Q3 is seen as at $1.20, up 5.3% year-on-year, on revenues seen –5% at $20.85bn. In September the bank’s CFO lowered the net interest income for the third time in five months, with the company now seeing this key profit metric down 6% this year compared with 2018. Bulls will be clinging to anything positive on net interest income. 

Netflix (Wednesday) has had a tough comedown and Wall Street has turned cold on the stock as the risk of a competitive spiral from the rise of rival streaming services threatens to derail the company’s remarkable growth. Investors have shown concern about subscriber growth rates that have started to falter. In Q2 global net adds of 2.7m massively missed expectations for 5m.  

Eco data 

On the high frequency economic data front we are looking at the RBA meeting minutes and Chinese inflation figures early on Tuesday, with the German ZEW economic sentiment survey likely to be key for the European session. 

Wednesday sees the CPI inflation numbers for the UK and Canada, with US retail sales also in focus. 

Thursday, we have the Australian unemployment data, which is a key factor in the RBA’s thinking on monetary policy, before the Phill Fed manufacturing index ahead of the US session. 

On Friday the focus will be the data out of China, with GDP, industrial production and fixed asset investment figures due. 

Tentatively scheduled for Friday is the US Treasury Currency Report, which outlines countries that the US deems currency manipulators.

Corporate Diary

Earnings season is upon us again, here are the notable releases this week.

October 15thJPMorgan Chase & Co
October 15thJohnson & Johnson
October 15thWells Fargo & Co
October 15thCitigroup
October 16thIBM
October 16thNetflix
October 17thMorgan Stanley
October 17thPhilip Morgan
October 18thAmerican Express

 Coming Up in XRay

There are plenty of great sessions coming up on XRay this year. Watch them live on XRay or catch up in a time to suit you.

Don’t forget to ask your questions in advance to xray@markets.com

07.15 GMTOct 14thEuropean Morning Call
10.00 GMTOct 14thLIVE Earnings Season Preview
15.45 GMTOct 15thAsset of the Day: Oil Outlook
19.00 GMTOct 15th LIVE Trader Training
18.00 GMTOct 17thThe Stop Hunter’s Guide to Technical Analysis (Part 7)

Key Economic Events

There are lots of releases this week that are likely to impact the markets. Also remember that trade tensions and Brexit rumble on which make also cause volatility.

09.30 GMTOct 15thRBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
09.00 GMTOct 15thGerman ZEW Economic Sentiment
08.30 GMTOct 16thUK CPI
12.30 GMTOct 16thUS Retail Sales
14.30 GMTOct 16thEIA Crude Oil Inventories
00.30 GMTOct 17thAustralia Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
08.30 GMTOct 17thUK Retail Sales
12.30 GMTOct 17thPhilly Fed Manufacturing
02.00 GMTOct 18thChina GDP, Industrial Production

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