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Week Ahead: Walmart and Home Depot Earnings, UK April Jobless Claims, May PMIs
We may be reaching the tail end of earnings season, but there are still some eagerly awaited releases lined up this week. Highlights will be reports from Walmart and Home Depot; stock in these companies has seen strong bid even as the wider market has tanked.
We also have the FOMC minutes, a host of PMIs, and jobless claims data from the UK for April. Here’s your full breakdown of the coming events you need to know about.
Japan Q1 GDP estimate
Preliminary Q1 GDP data for Japan is due early on Monday, but as with all Q1 growth data it will serve as the prelude to something much worse. The economy is expected to have contracted -1.2% on the quarter, after a -1.8% decline in the final three months of 2019. Annualised growth is expected to print at -4.6%, again a slowdown from the -7.1% drop recorded in 2019 Q4.
Forecasts for Q2 expect a 22% decline, the worst since the end of the Second World War. Will the Q1 figures give us any indication of how accurate those estimates might be, or will markets ignore the data and wait for more clarity?
How many UK jobs have been lost in lockdown?
The UK reports jobless claims data for April, when the workforce suffered an entire month of lockdown. The number of people filing jobless claims grew by over 12,000 in March: April’s figure is likely to print around 650,000. Unemployment rate figures are also scheduled, but these cover March and so are extremely backwards-looking by this point. A little later on Tuesday morning, the Labour Productivity Index for the first quarter is expected to print at -2.6%.
UK inflation set to collapse
April UK inflation data will feel the impact of collapsing retail sales, shuttered businesses, climbing unemployment and furloughed workers. Annualised price growth is expected to slump from 1.5% in May to 0.2% last month, with prices predicted to shrink -0.7% on the month after stagnating in April. The core inflation rate is predicted to drop to 1% on an annualised basis and -0.3% on the month. The contraction in producer prices is predicted to have accelerated to -3.9% on the year, and to have doubled to -0.4% on the month.
High hopes for Walmart, Home Depot earnings
Markets think Walmart and Home Depot are well-positioned to weather the coronavirus pandemic. Both stocks are over 4% higher year-to-date at the time of writing, compared to a -13% drop for the S&P 500. Walmart actually hit record highs at the end of April.
The Wall Street Journal recently reported that Walmart saw a 20% increase in sales during March alone. Markets clearly expect a lot from the leading retailers, but can Walmart and Home Depot deliver?
Both Walmart and Home Depot have “Strong Buy” ratings according to our Analyst Recommendations tool. Walmart has an average price target of $132.79 which represents a 7% upside on prices at the time of writing. Home Depot has a target price of $238.15, a 4% upside.
FOMC meeting minutes
We already know a lot more about the current thinking of the Federal Reserve thanks to last week’s speech from chair Jerome Powell. The minutes of the meeting at the end of April could be moot: Powell’s speech gave away what would likely have been the headlines from the minutes, namely that it was likely more stimulus would be necessary, but negative interest rates are not something being considered at this time.
Eurozone economic sentiment set to go negative again
April’s ZEW Economic Sentiment surveys for the Eurozone and Germany unexpectedly leapt back into positive territory. Assessment of current conditions remained dire, but investors began to focus on recovery.
But the reality of the recession that lies between where we are now and where we’re trying to get back to is expected to hit sentiment hard again this month, with the German reading forecast to plummet back to -14 and the Eurozone wide reading dropping to -10.
UK PMIs headed lower, Eurozone set to bounce off lows
This week we get the flash PMI readings for May. UK manufacturing is expected to drop to 26.6, while the services index will slip to 9. The overall composite PMI is expected to drop from 13.8 to 9.2.
Manufacturing and services in the Eurozone and its member states, however, are expected to rebound from their lows as economies began relaxing lockdown measures. Germany’s manufacturing index is predicted to jump around 10 points to 45, while services is forecast to more than double to 37 points. Overall the composite index is expected to climb from 17.4 to 40. The Eurozone composite is expected to rise from 13.6 to 34.
It’s worth remembering that these figures still represent a huge rate of contraction across all areas of the economy. The Eurozone economy may have bounced back from the initial shock of COVID-19, but there is still a long road ahead – and expectations for how long are getting bigger all the time.
Heads-Up on Earnings
The following companies are set to publish their quarterly earnings reports this week:
|18-May||Ryanair – FY 2020|
|Pre-Market||19-May||Walmart – Q1 2021|
|Pre-Market||19-May||Home Depot – Q1 2020|
|19-May||Imperial Brands – Q2 2020|
|Pre-Market||20-May||Lowe’s – Q1 2020|
|Pre-Market||20-May||Target Corp – Q1 2020|
|Pre-Market||20-May||Analog Devices – Q2 2020|
|20-May||Experian – FY 2020|
|Pre-Market||21-May||Medtronic – Q4 2020|
|Pre-Market||21-May||Best Buy – Q1 2021|
|After-Market||21-May||Intuit – Q3 2020|
|After-Market||21-May||Ross Stores – Q1 2020|
|After-Market||21-May||Agilent Technologies – Q2 2020|
|After-Market||21-May||Hewlett Packard Enterprise – Q2 2020|
|After-Market||21-May||NVIDIA – Q1 2021|
|22-May||Deere & Co – Q2 2020|
Highlights on XRay this Week
|17.00 UTC||18-May||Blonde Markets|
|18.00 UTC||18-May||The Ten Rules of Trading|
|15.30 UTC||19-May||Weekly Gold Forecast|
|18.00 UTC||19-May||Reading Candlestick Charts: Trading Patterns and Trends|
|11.00 UTC||20-May||Midweek Lunch Wrap|
Key Economic Events
Watch out for the biggest events on the economic calendar this week:
|23.50 UTC||17-May||Japan Preliminary Quarterly GDP|
|01.30 UTC||19-May||RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes|
|06.00 UTC||19-May||UK Claimant Count Change / Unemployment Rate|
|09.00 UTC||19-May||Germany / Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment|
|06.00 UTC||20-May||UK Inflation|
|12.30 UTC||20-May||Canada Inflation|
|14.30 UTC||20-May||US EIA Crude Oil Inventories|
|18.00 UTC||20-May||FOMC Meeting Minutes|
|07.15 – 08.00 UTC||21-May||FR, DE, Eurozone Flash Services and Manufacturing PMIs|
|08.30 UTC||21-May||UK Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs|
|12.30 UTC||21-May||US Jobless Claims|
|13.45 UTC||21-May||US Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs|
|22.45 UTC||21-May||New Zealand Quarterly Retail Sales|
|06.00 UTC||22-May||UK Retail Sales|
|12.30 UTC||22-May||Canada Core Retail Sales|
Week Ahead: Inflation readings to shape central bank views
There are a lot of things going on this week, with inflation leading the headlines.
With investors betting the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in September, Tuesday’s US inflation figures will be of key importance for the direction of global markets. Core CPI advanced 2.1% in June, its biggest increase in a year and a half. If inflation pressures continue to build, it could undermine doves on the FOMC calling for more hikes. UK inflation figures are released on Wednesday.
China and Germany growth
Fears about a slowdown in China and Germany are at the heart of investor concerns for the global economy. As such a batch of data from the two countries this week will be important for risk assets. China’s industrial production figures and the German preliminary GDP print on Wednesday will be the most closely watched.
Walmart and US retail sales
Q2 earnings season is well past its peak but US retail giant Walmart delivers its quarterly numbers on Thursday before the market opens. Q1 earnings were a positive surprise with EPS of $1.13 beating expectations of $1.02. The key comp sales number hit 3.4%, making it the best quarter in 9 years. Despite fears for the US economy, consumer confidence and retail sales gauges remain robust. On that front, US retail sales numbers are due on Thursday shortly after Walmart reports.
Tencent and Alibaba
We’ll also be watching earnings from China giants Tencent and Alibaba. The ongoing trade dispute between the US and China is sure to be a weight, however Chinese consumers have remained relatively robust. For Alibaba, in addition to its ecommerce platform, we’ll be watching to see how well its cloud computing business is doing. Both represent important bellwethers for the Chinese economy.
Earnings season is still going strong, with these earnings releases in the next week.
|Pre-Market||14th August||Tencent Holdings Ltd – Q2 Earnings|
|After-Market||14th August||Cisco Inc – Q2 Earnings|
|Pre-Market||15th August||Walmart – Q2 Earnings|
|15th August||Alibaba – Q2 Earnings|
|After-Market||15th August||NVIDIA Corp – Q2 Earnings|
Tune in live or watch on catch-up.
|07.15 GMT||12th August||European Morning Call|
|17.00 GMT||12th August||Blonde Markets|
|12.30 GMT||13th August||LIVE: US CPI Coverage|
|15.30 GMT||13th August||Asset of the Day: Bullion Billions|
|10.00 GMT||15th August||Walmart Earnings Preview: LIVE|
Watch out for the following economic events in the coming week.
|08.30 GMT||13th August||UK Average Earnings|
|12.30 GMT||13th August||US CPI Inflation|
|09.00 GMT||13th August||Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment|
|01.30 GMT||14th August||Australia Wage Price Index|
|02.00 GMT||14th August||China Industrial Production|
|08.30 GMT||14th August||US CPI Inflation|
|01.30 GMT||15th August||Australia Unemployment Rate|
|08.30 GMT||15th August||UK Retail Sales|
|12.30 GMT||15th August||US Retail Sales, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index|