Week Ahead: Central banks galore but fiscal response is the key

Week Ahead

It’s a veritable cornucopia of central bank delights this week with the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan all in action, following the ECB and Bank of Canada last week. The Bank of Japan decision may well be overshadowed by Japanese politics as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) elects a new leader days before the national diet elects a new prime minister.

Meanwhile we continue to keep our eyes on the high frequency economic data, with jobless claims and retail sales numbers on tap as well.

FOMC

The Federal Reserve convenes on September 15th and 16th for the first time since Jerome Powell signalled that the central bank would be prepared to tolerate higher inflation as a trade-off for a swifter economic recovery and jobs growth. Unemployment has fallen since the pandemic peak but is not improving quickly enough.

The Fed is not expected to announce any fresh policy change but will reinforce Powell’s message from Jackson Hole on the policy shift. Indeed the main focus for the Fed right now is actually not monetary policy but fiscal as members await any move in Washington to deliver a fresh stimulus package. 

Bank of England

The Bank of England also meets this week, amid mounting speculation that the Old Lady of Threadneedle St will turn to negative interest rates to stimulate the economy.

Speaking to MPs recently, governor Andrew Bailey refused to rule out negative rates – a policy that has systematically failed to deliver the required inflation in the Eurozone. “It’s in the box of tools,” he said. “We’re not planning it at the moment, we’ve got no plans to use it imminently, but it is in the box.”

Meanwhile, again it is the fiscal response that seems to matter more right now – central banks have already shot most of their ammunition. Andy Haldane, the BoE’s chief economist, warned last week that the UK’s furlough scheme should not be extended – but will the chancellor cave to demands to prolong it in order to protect jobs? As the furlough scheme approaches its end in October, the government may be forced to extend in order to avoid a cliff-edge in job losses. 

Japanese yen in focus

There is a fair chance Japanese equity markets and the yen will see heightened volatility this week with two big risk events. On Monday, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) elects a new leader days before the national diet elects a new prime minister.

Following the resignation of Shinzo Abe on health grounds, chief cabinet secretary Yoshihide Suga is the favourite to replace him. Whilst he is the continuity candidate and has pledged to carry on with Abenomics, there is a risk that he may call an election, which could introduce political risk to the JPY and Nikkei 225. The Bank of Japan statement the day after the Diet vote is not anticipated to rock the boat.  

Earnings

On the FTSE, keep an eye out for Ocado Q3 earnings on Tuesday, with investors keen to get a read on how the Marks & Spencer partnership has started. Investors will also want to know the perennial question – where is the cash? Ocado’s share price has rocketed this year on the boom in online retail. Its +80% rally in 2020 puts it behind only Fresnillo in terms of YTD gains.

However, it’s yet to really deliver any returns to investors by way of free profit.

Meanwhile retail bellwether Next (-16% YTD) is a cash cow that even with a collapse in the high street consistently manages to deliver free cash flow. Its half year results follow on Thursday. In July the company reported that while full price sales in the second quarter were down -28% against last year, this was far better than expected and an improvement on the best-case scenario given in the April trading statement. Management guided full year profit before tax at £195m.

Highlights on XRay this Week 

Read the full schedule of financial market analysis and training.

17.00 UTC 14-⁠Sep Blonde Markets
From 15.30 UTC 15⁠⁠-⁠⁠Sep Weekly Gold, Silver, and Oil Forecasts
13.00 UTC 16⁠⁠-⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sep Indices Insights
14.45 UTC 17⁠-⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sep Master the Markets
17.00 UTC 17-⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sep Election2020 Weekly

Key Events this Week

Watch out for the biggest events on the economic calendar this week. A full economic and corporate events calendar is available in the platform. 

09.00 UTC 14-Sep Eurozone Industrial Production
01.30 UTC 15-Sep RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
02.00 UTC 15-Sep China Industrial Production & Retail Sales
06.00 UTC 15-Sep UK Unemployment Rate, Claimant Count Change
09.00 UTC 15-Sep Germany, Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment
After-Market 15-Sep Adobe – Q3 2020
After-Market 15-Sep FedEx
06.00 UTC 16-Sep UK Consumer Price Index
12.30 UTC 16-Sep US Retail Sales
14.30 UTC 16-Sep US EIA Crude Oil Inventories
18.00 UTC 16-Sep FOMC Interest Rate Decision, Economic Projections
18.30 UTC 16-Sep FOMC Press Conference
22.45 UTC 16-Sep New Zealand Quarterly GDP
01.30 UTC 17-Sep Australia Employment Change, Jobless Rate
04.00 UTC 17-Sep Bank of Japan Rate Decision & Statement
11.00 UTC 17-Sep Bank of England Interest Rate Decision
12.30 UTC 17-Sep US Weekly Jobless Claims
14.30 UTC 17-Sep US EIA Natural Gas Storage
23.30 UTC 17-Sep Japan Inflation Rate
06.00 UTC 18-Sep UK Retail Sales
12.30 UTC 18-Sep Canada Retail Sales
14.00 UTC 18-Sep US Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment Index

Upbeat start for European equities

Morning Note

No Monday morning blues for equities after the Bank of Japan announced more stimulus and we’ve some good news from Italy at last and even Deutsche Bank has reported a profit.

The BOJ laid down the gauntlet to the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, who both meet later this week, by raising its package of support. The BOJ will now buy unlimited government bonds (JGBs), catching up with market expectations, and is increasing how much corporate and commercial paper it buys.

The moved gave an upbeat tone to trading in Asia. Tokyo rose 2.7% whilst Hong Kong rose 2%. European shares followed suit with the FTSE 100 opening above 5800 and the DAX reclaiming 10,500. Indices remain in consolidation phase and risk rolling over as momentum fades, but the news today is quite positive. US futures are positive after closing higher on Friday but falling over the course of the week.

Italian and German yield spreads came in after S&P didn’t downgrade Italian debt. This is good news for the ECB, which may well increase its pandemic asset purchase programme by €500bn this week.

On the Covid-19 front, Italy is also making progress and will relax lockdown measures from May 4th. Spain has reported its lowest daily death toll in a month. Boris Johnson is back to work.

Meanwhile Deutsche Bank reported exceeded expectations on profits and revenues in the first quarter but warned on loan defaults as a result of Covid-19. Investors shrugged off the warning and shares rose 7%, sending European banking stocks higher by around 3%. It’s a very big week for earnings releases – HSBC, BP, Shell, Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook and the rest.

Oil has taken a turn lower as fears of approaching ‘tank tops’ imminently. The June WTI contract is starting to show stress, gapping lower at the open last night and trending lower to approach $14. Brent is –5% or so at $23.50. Goldman Sachs estimates global storage capacity will be reached in just three weeks, which would require a shut-in of 20% of global output. That would chime with what we’ve been tracking and suggests OPEC+ cuts of 9.7m are – as anticipated – not nearly enough. It will make the Brent front-month contract liable to volatility, though perhaps not quite what we have seen in WTI. Baker Hughes says oil rigs in the US were down 60 in the week to Apr 24th to 378, the fewest active since 2016 and well under half the number this time a year ago.

In FX, speculators are dialling up their net long bets on the euro. The Commitment of Traders (COT) from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows euro net longs rose to 87.2k contracts in the week to Apr 21st, the most since May 2017. Traders turned long at the end of March and have been adding to positions since. The last time a move like this occurred in EUR positioning in 2017 it preceded a 15% rally in EURUSD.

Meanwhile, speculators net short bets on the USD are now at the highest in two years as traders call the top in the dollar. Traders habitually call the top in the dollar and get it wrong. Various actions taken by the Fed to improve liquidity and an easing in the market panic we saw in March has helped, but the dollar remains the preferred safe harbour in times of market stress.

EURUSD – the last time specs turned this long was in May 2017.

DAX – rangebound, approaching top Bollinger band.

Week Ahead: Markets bet on Fed rate cut

Equities
Forex
Indices
Week Ahead

Welcome to your guide to the week ahead in the markets. Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan policy meetings ahead.

Markets bank on Fed cut 

Equity markets have recovered from the August doldrums to push higher, with the S&P 500 hitting 3,000 again. All eyes will be on the Fed this week as it’s expected to cut rates – the question will be how many more cuts should the market bank on? Market pricing suggests a 90% chance of a cut, with a roughly 70% of at least another by the end of the year. The FOMC decision will be announced at 18:00 (GMT) on Wednesday. 

Bank of England to stand pat 

Wages are rising at 4% and inflation is on target at 2% – perfect conditions for the Bank of England to raise rates. But the uncertainty over Brexit and signs of a slowdown in GDP growth are likely to leave policymakers standing pat for the time being. The Monetary Policy Committee decision is due at 11:00 (GMT) on Thursday. 

Anything from Bank of Japan? 

The Bank of Japan is also in action Thursday, with markets anticipating no change to its ultra-loose monetary policy. In fact, governor Haruhiko Kuroda said recently that cutting rates deeper into negative territory is among its policy options. Meanwhile, inflation remains stubbornly low, sinking in July to its weakest level in two years. 

Kingfisher and Next earnings 

Results from Kingfisher and Next are among the main events on the corporate diary. For Kingfisher it’s likely to be more of the same with trading tough in France, whilst things are improving in the UK, where B&Q enjoyed a decent bump in like-for-like sales in the first quarter. Next interims come after it delivered a blockbuster trading statement at the end of July as sales growth in Q2 picked up markedly and was well ahead of expectations. Full price sales rose 4%, a thumping beat on the -0.5% guided in May. 

Corporate Diary

These are the upcoming company announcement to put in your calendar.

September 17thAdobe IncQ3
September 17th FedEx CorpQ1 2020
September 18thKingfisher PlcInterim Results
September 19thNext PlcInterim Results

Coming Up On XRay

Watch live or catch up on YouTube. Plus, if you subscribe via the MARKETSX platform, you can submit questions in real time.

07.15 GMTSept 16thEuropean Morning Call
15.30 GMTSept 17thAsset of the Day: Bullion Billions
15.45 GMTSept 17thAsset of the Day: Oil Outlook
19.00 GMTSept 17thLIVE: Trader Training
18.00 GMTSept 18th The Stop Hunter’s Guide to Technical Analysis (part 3) 

Key Economic Events

There’s a lot going on in the coming week, here are the events we to watch out for.

01.30 GMTSept 17thRBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
09.00 GMTSept 17thGerman/Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment
08.30 GMTSept 18thUK CPI Inflation
18.00 GMTSept 18thFOMC Monetary Policy Decision Annoucement
18.30 GMTSept 18thFOMC Press Conference
22.45 GMTSept 18thNew Zealand GDP (QoQ)
01.30 GMTSept 19thAustralia Employment Change/ Employment Rate
04.00 GMTSept 19thBank of Japan Interest Rate Decision
07.30 GMTSept 19thSwiss National Bank Rate Announcement
11.00 GMTSept 19th BoE Monetary Policy Decision Announcement

Little help for rangebound yen likely from Bank of Japan commentary

Forex

The Bank of Japan releases its Summary of Opinions and monetary policy meeting minutes this week. Policy normalisation is moving at a glacial pace, so the safe-haven yen is unlikely to find support on the latest comments from policymakers.

Central banks around the world are tilting towards the dovish end of the spectrum. This is epitomised by the futures market’s pricing in of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve this year. However, when it comes to caution, the Bank of Japan is the archetype – it was the first to implement quantitative easing and continues to pump trillions into the economy while tinkering with the yield curve and keeping rates negative.

The plan is unlikely to change any time soon, especially now that global conditions appear to be weakening. There is little certainty on a macro level to suggest the BOJ’s work is anywhere near done, even if the fears of a worldwide recession that tanked markets at the end of 2018/beginning of 2019 were overdone.

This leaves the yen facing more of the same; a narrow trading range against its major peers.

USD/JPY edges higher as fears over US growth fears ease

The US dollar has been slowly pressuring the yen lower over the course of the past few months. Strong US data has helped ease fears over the need for the Federal Reserve to pivot too severely into dovish territory.

EUR/JPY rangebound as ECB and BOJ battle for dovish crown

The EUR/JPY pairing was almost slap-bang in the middle of its multi-week trading range at the time of writing. While the European Central Bank could bring quantitative easing back into play later in the year, which would be yen-supportive, the long-term outlook remains that it will be the weakening of overseas policy outlooks that push JPY higher in the near-term, not the machinations of its own BOJ.

Yen unable to take advantage as Brexit uncertainty keeps pound floored

GBP/JPY is just a pinch overbought on the Relative Strength Index. The chart above shows how the pairing has settled into a narrow channel over the past few weeks. Brexit uncertainty is keeping sterling on pause, however the yen is unable to capitalise on this due to the lack of optimism surrounding Japanese monetary policy.

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