Morning Note: Oil Sanctions, Canada Data, Ripple's Space Gamble

Oil Prices Rise as U.S. Tightens Iran Sanctions and OPEC+ Cuts Output

On Thursday, the U.S. Treasury announced new Iran-related sanctions, marking the first time an independent Chinese refiner was among the targeted entities and vessels involved in supplying Iranian crude oil to China. This move represents Washington’s fourth round of sanctions against Iran since February, when U.S. President Donald Trump pledged to reinstate a maximum-pressure campaign aimed at reducing Iran’s oil exports to zero.

Moreover, oil prices also found support from a newly announced OPEC+ plan, unveiled on Thursday. Seven member countries agreed to additional output cuts to compensate for exceeding previously agreed production levels. These reductions will range between 189,000 and 435,000 barrels per day (bpd) per month and are set to continue until June 2026. The plan is expected to offset the scheduled supply increases OPEC+ had previously announced for the coming month.

(US Oil Price Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, the price has recently rebounded from the support zone of 66.20 – 66.50 with bullish momentum. If today’s candlestick manages to close above the 68.50 level, it is possible to continue surging upward to retest the 70.20 – 70.50 swap zone. Conversely, if it faces rejection from bearish pressure and closes below the 67.20 level, it could retest the support zone again to determine its next direction.

Investors Await Canada’s Retail Sales Report

Canada’s retail sales grew 3.9% year-over-year (YoY) in December, with January’s forecast indicating a further increase to 4%. This data is set to be released on 21 March at 12:30 GMT. This projected growth is likely driven by continued consumer spending momentum, fuelled by factors such as seasonal demand carryover, wage growth, and overall economic improvements. Additionally, stabilising inflation and rising consumer confidence may contribute to the anticipated uptick.

(USD/CAD Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, the overall trend of the USD/CAD currency pair has been bullish since the beginning of October 2024, as indicated by the formation of higher highs and higher lows. However, strong bearish momentum pushed the price downward at the start of February 2025, and the candlestick pattern has begun to shift to a bearish structure, as evidenced by the lower high pattern formed in March 2025.

Recently, it broke below the swap zone of 1.4340 – 1.4380, retested it, but was rejected, as indicated by a long upper wick candlestick. If it fails to close above the swap zone in the near term, bearish momentum might retake control, pushing the rate downward to retest the support zone of 1.4120 – 1.4170.

How could Ripple Co-Founder’s $1 Billion Bet Affect Ripple’s Price?

Jed McCaleb, the serial entrepreneur who founded the Mt. Gox crypto exchange and co-founded Ripple, has revealed new details about his ambitious space venture, Vast. In a March 20 interview with Bloomberg, McCaleb confirmed that Vast remains on track to launch Haven-1, its under-construction commercial space station, into orbit by May 2026.

If Vast succeeds, it could secure a lucrative contract from NASA to replace the International Space Station, with contract awards expected by mid-2026. However, if the company fails or loses the NASA bid to a competitor, McCaleb could see his net worth shrink by $1 billion, casting uncertainty over the commercial viability of his space station venture.

(Ripple’s Price Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, Ripple's price has been in a bearish trend since mid-January, as indicated by the formation of lower highs and lower lows within a descending channel. Recently, the price found support in the 1.90 – 2.05 zone, with a significant liquidity sweep signalling strong bullish momentum. Moreover, Wednesday’s candlestick closed with a large, solid, bullish body, indicating that the price could potentially surge upward and may retest the upper boundary of the descending channel.

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Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice.