Week Ahead: FOMC minutes and NFP dominate the calendar

Week Ahead

While Chinese PMIs will be in focus at the start of the week, the US economic calendar will dominate over the next few days, with the latest ISM Manufacturing PMI, FOMC meeting minutes, and the June nonfarm payrolls report all on the way.

China PMIs 

It’s time for the latest China PMIs – as these are the first of the month’s global PMI data they are the first chance markets have to see how things are shaping up. 

China’s recovery may be in jeopardy now thanks to new Covid-19 outbreaks, but the latest PMIs will nonetheless serve as something of a blueprint for how other nations might fare, as they too look past battling the virus and begin focussing more on getting their economies up and running again. 

Germany, Eurozone inflation 

Consumer prices shrank -0.1% across the Eurozone during May, although this is hardly a shock. Inflation data this week could show further declines, which is to be expected given the huge collapse in demand, surging unemployment, and the stimulus being pumped out by the European Central Bank. Last week Fitch predicted that core Eurozone inflation will decelerate throughout the next 18 months and end 2021 below 0.5%. 

A sustained period of deflation will be bad for the economy, but in the short term these readings are expected and so the market impact of CPI data has been somewhat lessened of late. 

Germany retail sales 

Consumer activity has rebounded sharply in the US and UK since restrictions were eased – can Germany follow suit? US retail sales jumped 17.7% in May, beating market expectations of an 8% rise, while UK sales were up 12% against the 5.7% forecast. 

German retail sales dropped -5.3% in April, but this was far better than the -12% fall expected by analysts, with a surge in online sales helping soften the rate of collapse. Sales are expected to have climbed 2.5% in May as physical retailers began to reopen, but as with the US and UK data we could see a much bigger reading. 

US ISM manufacturing 

US manufacturing is struggling to recover from the shock of the pandemic. May’s ISM PMI ticked higher after the lowest reading in more than a decade in April, but missed market expectations by half a point. A sharper rebound is forecast for June, but the manufacturing PMI released by IHS Markit last week disappointed expectations by remaining in contraction territory, even as the Eurozone and UK readings returned to growth. 

FOMC meeting minutes 

The FOMC dealt markets a blow as a result of its last meeting, releasing worse-than-expected economic projections that did much to kill the idea that the US would enjoy a V-shaped recovery. Policymakers noted that interest rates would stay near zero until at least 2022 and that the rate of asset purchases would increase over the coming months. 

Minutes of the meeting will give more details, with markets particularly interested in any mentions of yield curve control (YCC), which is likely to be the next policy tool deployed by the Fed to keep a lid on rates. The time of this move is still uncertain, but the minutes may provide some clues. 

US nonfarm payrolls report 

It’s the US Independence Day bank holiday on Friday, due to July 4th falling on Saturday this year. This means the June nonfarm payrolls report is due out on Thursday. 

Last month’s data stunned with a 2.5 million increase in employment against forecasts of an -8 million drop, indicating that the US economy may be recovering faster than previously thought. 

Recently weekly jobless claims figures have disappointed, however – although the numbers have continued to fall, the decline in new claims has been softer than expected. Is this pointing to a more permanent scarring of the labour market, and if so do we need to reign in expectations that the NFP can continue to deliver such strong numbers? You can get instant reaction to the data and analysis of the market response with our free NFP Live webinar – register free today. 

Highlights on XRay this Week 

Read the full schedule of financial market analysis and training.

07.15 UTC Daily European Morning Call
From 15.30 UTC 30-Jun Weekly Gold, Silver, and Oil Forecasts
17.00 UTC 01-Jul Blonde Markets
19.00 UTC 01-Jul Introduction to Currency Trading: Is it For Me?
12.25 UTC 02-Jul

US Nonfarm Payrolls: Live Market Analysis

 

Key Events this Week

Watch out for the biggest events on the economic calendar this week:

12.00 UTC 29-Jun German Preliminary Inflation
23.30 UTC 29-Jun Japan Unemployment / Industrial Production
After-Market 29-Jun Micron Technology – Q3 2020
01.00 UTC 30-Jun China Manufacturing, Non-Manufacturing PMIs
06.00 UTC 30-Jun UK Finalised Quarterly GDP
30-Jun easyJet – Q2 2020
09.00 UTC 30-Jun Eurozone Flash CPI
12.30 UTC 30-Jun Canada Monthly GDP
14.00 UTC 30-Jun US CB Consumer Confidence
After-Market 30-Jun FedEx Corp – Q4 2020
01.45 UTC 01-Jul Caixin Manufacturing PMI
06.00 UTC 01-Jul Germany Retail Sales
Pre-Market 01-Jul General Mills – Q4 2020
Pre-Market 01-Jul Constellation Brands – Q1 2021
12.15 UTC 01-Jul US ADP Nonfarm Payrolls Report
14.00 UTC 01-Jul ISM Manufacturing PMI
14.30 UTC 01-Jul US EIA Crude Oil Inventories
18.00 UTC 01-Jul FOMC Meeting Minutes
01.30 UTC 02-Jul Australia Trade Balance
12.30 UTC 02-Jul US Nonfarm Payrolls (Friday is US Bank Holiday)
01.30 UTC 03-Jul Australia Retail Sales
All Day 03-Jul US Bank Holiday – Markets Closed