Brexit compromise, dire PMIs, a lift for Facebook and a drop for Lyft

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Morning Note

Facebook up on Deutsche Bank Instagram note, Lyft receives first “Sell” rating

Despite the negative news-flow swirling around Facebook as it battles concerns over privacy and extremist content, stock has continued to climb today, registering a 3.3% gain. A new note from Deutsche Bank states analysts believe that Friday’s addition of a Checkout on Instagram feature for the image-sharing platform could bring in revenue of $10 billion by 2021. Facebook is currently trying to move away from its reliance on ads, which currently generate 98% of revenues.

Finding alternative revenue streams is important for the company as it faces pressure to clamp down on who it is allowing to advertise, especially as the platform comes under scrutiny for the role of paid ads during elections and other political events.

At the other end of the spectrum is Lyft, which yesterday closed below $69.00; under its IPO price. The stock has been hit by its first “sell” rating. Michael Ward of Seaport Global has set a target price of $42 per share, claiming the current price represents a “leap of faith” in the willingness of consumers to forgo car ownership in favour of ride-hailing services.
Executives at rival ride-hailer Uber may not be looking forward to their upcoming float as much now. Lyft’s performance could significantly dent the price investors are willing to pay; it seems that holding a company valued at many times earnings and yet to post a profit isn’t quite the golden opportunity many first believed.

Looking at the wider markets, sentiment remains positive after fresh signs that the US and China are nearing a deal to end the months-long trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Recession fears are easing and global stocks climbed to six-month highs, while a move out of safety pushed the German ten-year yield back above 0%.

Asian shares hit a fresh seven-month-high, with the Hang Seng up 0.9% to break above the 30,000.00 handle before consolidating around 29,950.00, and the Nikkei 225 up 1.3% to flirt with 21,800.00.

European shares are also higher; the DAX has registered a 1% gain. Signs that the UK government may be moving towards a softer Brexit have helped nudge the FTSE up nearly 60 points; resistance remains around 7,400.00.

Cable caught between Brexit compromise and service sector stumble

Having exhausted all other Brexit options, Theresa May last night announced that the UK needed another short Article 50 extension, and extended an offer of talks to Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. May still doesn’t want the UK to take part in European Elections, but wants to avoid a no-deal Brexit; currently scheduled for April 12th.

It marks a significant change in strategy, and cable responded positively. Sterling was up 0.5% against the dollar this morning, but gains were trimmed following a dire reading from the March services PMI. Analysts expected the reading to drop from 51.3 in February to 50.9, but the sector instead recorded a contractionary 48.9.

Taken together, the PMIs are waving a red flag for the UK economy. Only the manufacturing sector continues growing, and that is because of companies stockpiling ahead of Brexit.

The uncertainty facing businesses is an anchor on the UK economy, but can May and Corbyn craft a deal between them that appeases Parliament? The move certainly signals the Prime Minister is ready to consider a softer Brexit, but will anyone buy it?

During normal times, a consensus between Conservative and Labour leaders would have a strong chance of uniting the house. But we have to remember the circumstances and the leaders in question. Tories aren’t likely to vote for anything with Corbyn’s fingerprints on, while the Labour party isn’t exactly Corbyn’s biggest fan either.

Cable remains higher – a deal that potentially avoids further economic damage is clearly better than no deal that threatens even more (so markets believe). A soft patch for the economy can be overlooked if things get cleared up quickly, and hope this is the case has kept GBP/USD supported around $1.3175.