Morning Note

Gold makes fresh highs, equities retreat to middle of ranges

Gold broke out to fresh multi-year highs above $1770 as real Treasury yields continued to plunge. US 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) dipped to new 7-year lows at –0.66% and have declined by 14bps in the last 6 days. The front end of the curve has also declined more sharply in the last couple of sessions, with 2-year real rates at –0.81%. Indeed, all along the curve real rates have come down with the 30-year at –0.14%.

Gold has also found some bid on a softening dollar in recent days, with the dollar index down 1% in the last two sessions. Fears that global central banks are fuelling a latent inflation boom with aggressive increases in the money supply continue to act as the longer-term bull thesis for gold.

Gold climbs on falling bond yields, fears of long-term inflation bubble

As previously discussed, gold is a clear winner from the pandemic. Gold was initially sold off in February and the first half of March as a result of the scramble for cash and dollar funding squeeze. Since then gold has made substantial progress in tandem with risk assets since the March lows because of central bank action to keep a lid on bond yields. The combination of negative real yields and the prospect of an inflation surge due to massively increased money supply is sending prices higher.

Whilst the Covid-19 outbreak is at first a deflationary shock to the economy, the aftermath of this crisis could be profoundly inflationary. Gold remains the best hedge against inflation which may be about to return, even if deflationary pressures are more pronounced right now.

Covid-19 second wave fears keep stocks range bound

Stocks are a little shaky this morning after a strong bounce on Tuesday. European markets opened lower, with the FTSE 100 slotting back under 6,300 at the 61.8% retracement, which called for a further retreat to the 50% zone around 6220. The DAX is weaker this morning and broke down through support at 12,400, the 61.8% level.

The Dow is holding around 26,100 and the 50% level of the pullback in the second week of June, while the S&P 500 is finding support on the 61.8% level around 3,118. Equity markets continue to trade the ranges as investors search for direction on how quickly the economy will recover and whether second waves threats are real.

On the second wave, the US looks clearly to have suffered a new, and in the words of Dr Fauci, ‘disturbing surge’ in cases. Virus hotspots like Texas, Florida, California and Arizona are seeing cases soar. Such is the worry the EU may ban Americans from travelling to its member states. Tokyo has also reported a spike in cases, whilst Germany is locking down two districts in North Rhine-Westphalia and there has been an outbreak in Lower Saxony.

On stimulus, Treasury Sec Steve Mnuchin said the administration is looking at extending the tax deadline beyond July 15th and is seriously looking at additional fiscal support to build on the $2.2tn Cares Act.

Dollar retreats, RBNZ decision hits NZD

In FX, the dollar has been offered this week, allowing major peers to peel back off their lows. GBPUSD has regained 1.25, while EURUSD has recovered 1.13. The kiwi was offered today after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left rates on hold but said monetary policy easing would need to continue. The RBNZ said it will continue with the Large Scale Asset Purchase programme of NZ$60b and keep rates at 0.25%. The central bank noted that the exchange rate ‘has placed further pressure on export earnings…[and] the balance of economic risks remains to the downside’.

Crude off multi-month highs, mixed on API data

WTI (Aug) pulled back having hit its best level since March, dropping beneath the $40.70 level that was the Jun 8th peak, but remained clinging to $40. Prices have slipped the near-term trend support. Again, I’m looking at a potential double top calling for a pull back to $35. However, the fundamentals are much more constructive, and indicate a stronger outlook for demand and supply than we had feared in May.

API data showed inventories rose 1.7m barrels last week, gasoline stocks declined by 3.9m barrels, while distillate inventories fell by 2.6m barrels. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, fell by 325,000 barrels for the week. EIA figures today are forecast to show a build of 1.2m barrels.

Chart: Gold up over 20% from its March low

A candlestick graph showing gold prices in 2020

Seneste markedsnyheder

Week Ahead: Markets brace for ugly earnings season

Read More

Stocks choppy after sharp risk reversal, gilt yields strike fresh lows

Read More

Risk rolls over in early US trade

Read More

Stocks tread water, US jobs numbers on tap

Read More

Natural gas update – EIA sees rising prices

Read More

US oil inventories preview: EIA raises WTI price forecast

Read More

Investors eye UK mini budget, gold heads to $1800 as stocks slip again

Read More

Equities feel the hangover

Read More

Banks lead European stocks higher

Read More
Previous
Next

Tilmed dig Markets.com

Velkommen til en mere individuel strategi for en verden med handel. Med VIP-service, der behandler dig som et menneske, og ikke et nummer. Tilmeld dig i dag for at se en verden af finansmarkeder, på din måde.

Opret konto

CySEC (EU)

  • Kundemidler holdes i adskilte bankkonti
  • FSCS investorgaranti op til 20.000 EUR
  • Beskyttelse mod negativ saldo

Produkt

  • CFD
  • Aktiehandel
  • Quantranks

Markets.com drives af SafeCap Investments Limited (”Safecap”). Reguleret af CySEC under licensnr. 092/08 og FSCA under licensnr. 43906.

FSC (GLOBAL)

  • Kundemidler holdes i adskilte bankkonti
  • Elektronisk verifikation
  • Beskyttelse mod negativ saldo

Produkt

  • CFD
  • Strategy Builder

Markets.com drives af TradeTech Markets (BVI) Limited ("TTMBVI”) Reguleret af BVI Financial Services Commission ("FSC") under licens nr. SIBA/L/14/1067.

FCA (UK)

  • Kundemidler holdes i adskilte bankkonti
  • FSCS investorgaranti op til 85.000 GBP *afhængigt af kriterier og berettigelse
  • Beskyttelse mod negativ saldo

Produkt

  • CFD
  • Spread Bets
  • Strategy Builder

Markets.com drives af TradeTech Alpha Limited ("TTA”) Reguleret af Financial Conduct Authority (‘FCA’) under licensnr. 607305.

ASIC (AU)

  • Kundemidler holdes i adskilte bankkonti
  • Elektronisk verifikation
  • Beskyttelse mod negativ saldo

Produkt

  • CFD

Markets.com drives af TradeTech Markets (Australia) Pty Ltd ("TTMAU”) Er indehaver af Australian Financial Services licens nr. 424008 og reguleres med hensyn til leveringen af finansielle tjenester af Australian Securities and Investments Commission ("ASIC”).

FSCA (ZA)

  • Kundemidler holdes i adskilte bankkonti
  • Beskyttelse mod negativ saldo

Produkt

  • CFD
  • Strategy Builder

Markets.com drives af TradeTech Markets (South Africa) (Pty) Limited ("TTMSA”) Reguleret af Financial Sector Conduct Authority ("FSCA") under licens nr. 46860.

Valg af en af disse tilsynsmyndigheder vil vise de tilsvarende oplysninger for hele webstedet. Hvis du gerne vil vise oplysninger for en anden tilsynsmyndighed, vælges denne. Klik her for yderligere oplysninger.