عقود الفروقات هي أدوات مالية معقدة، وتنطوي على مخاطر عالية لخسارة الأموال بشكل سريع بسبب الرافعة المالية. 73.9% من حسابات مستثمري التجزئة يخسرون الأموال عند تداول عقود الفروقات مع هذا المزود. عليك الأخذ بعين الاعتبار ما إذا كنت تفهم طريقة عمل عقود الفروقات، وما إذا كان بوسعك تحمل المخاطر العالية لخسارة أموالك.
Nikola shares tumble (again)
Volume leaders today include Apple as normal, as well as Peloton after a blow-out earnings report – EPS of $0.27 almost treble the street consensus of $0.10 indicating the stay-at-home Covid trend is playing out well for the brand. A new cheaper version of its bike should help, too. Apple shares were flat, with Peloton up just +1%, well below its highs.
Hidenburg Research slams Nikola, shares tumble
Nikola shares fell about 15% on high volumes after the Hindenburg Research article. Whilst shares had fallen yesterday following publication, it seems investors have taken fright at the lack of any detailed refutation by Nikola.
A statement today from the company only said the allegations are not accurate and described the report as a ‘hit job’. If it is a hit job, it’s been a very well timed one with the stock having jumped only a couple of days prior on the tie-up with GM. But the lack of detail from the company so far has left investors unimpressed.
Without being able to comment on the details of the report, short attacks can and do happen, and more often than often there is rarely smoke without fire.
Equities move higher into the weekend
Elsewhere, the S&P 500 ticked higher after testing yesterday’s cash close at 3,339, with the 50-day line offering further support untested at 3,321.90. Yesterday’s tap on the 21-day SMA at 3,425 looks a long way off. Nasdaq also higher as risk is catching some bid into the weekend.
European equity markets are closing the day out with some decent weekly gains in the bag. Overall we have seen a real divergence between the US and Europe this week with equity markets this side of the pond doing better. Partly that is down to the rotation out of tech, but also we need to be aware of election risk that will play an increasing role in driving sentiment over the next month and a half.
Crude oil found some bid as the risk sentiment improved as the US session progressed.
Listening to the usual talking heads it seems there is more appetite for value after the three-day tech rout saw the penny drop for many that valuations had gotten out of hand. Let’s see how that goes with Ocado and Next on stage next week.
Brexit headline risk keeps pressure on GBPUSD
In FX, DXY ran out of gas at 93.38 as it tries to make another stab at the top of the descending wedge. GBPUSD tried three times to break below 1.2770 today but the level has just about held for now – sterling remains exposed to Brexit headline risks and bulls may be thin on the ground.
Post fix it looks pretty meek and liable to further downside into the weekend with UK-EU trade talks next week in focus. The current consolidation range looks pretty bearish and flaggy but we should always caution that sellers can get exhausted into the weekend just much as buyers can and there may be some profits being taken.
FTSE lags as dollar continues to drop
Back to school: the unruly mob are back. But that is enough about MPs going back to work – children start the autumn term this week and the furlough scheme starts to unwind with the government reducing its contribution to employees’ wages to 70% in September.
Furlough forever is simply not an option – zombie staff, zombie businesses. But it means unemployment is surely set to rise – and consumer confidence always follows. The chancellor is floating a tax raid – better to monetize the debt surely?
Stocks soft after strong August
Stocks were a tad weaker on Monday, but August was a great month. The MSCI World index rose 6.6% and the S&P rallied over 7% to record their best August since 1986. The Nasdaq rose 10%. August is usually a poor month for stocks.
Tuesday morning saw a firm bounce for the major European bourses, though the FTSE 100 lagged as it played catchup following the bank holiday. A stronger sterling is also dragging on the big dollar earners. AstraZeneca has started large-scale human trials of its coronavirus candidate vaccine in the US.
The Federal Reserve has put a floor under markets and a ceiling on rates, delivering conditions where stocks can only float higher. We call this TINA – There Is No Alternative. It’s not sustainable of course, but it won’t stop the Fed and other central banks continuing to inflate the bubble. The Fed’s policy shift on inflation has marked a important change for the central bank and it may be followed by the ECB and others.
Vix futures – the so-called ‘fear gauge’ are telling another story. These have started to grind higher despite stocks rallying, which raises a warning about the future path of the market. As previously mentioned, volatility should rise as the election approaches and the races proves far tighter than it currently looks. In summary, the options market is sending a signal that the stock market is not.
Strong China manufacturing PMI lifts sentiment, despite soft readings from France, Spain
Sentiment this morning is helped by data showing Chinese factory activity rose at the fastest pace since 2011. French and Spanish manufacturing PMIs softened, dropping under 50 to signal contraction, while Italy’s was a little better than expected at 53.1.
Some of the moves in US shares are striking. Apple rose over 3% to $129 after splitting, whilst Tesla shares rocketed 13% on its busiest day ever. Stock splits shouldn’t make a difference, except this time they have. Tesla is up 74% for the month.
Zoom races higher after smashing earnings forecasts
Zoom rose almost 23% in after-hours trade after it reported a 355% rise in revenues to $663.5m for the July quarter, smashing forecasts for around $500m. Zoom has proved to be a Covid winner of epic proportions – but shouldn’t we all be going back to the office by now? The UK significantly lags Europe and others in ‘getting back to work’ statistics – this has a huge implication for productivity and for the wider economy.
The dollar continues to soften and trying to guess the bottom is akin to catching a falling knife. The dollar index sank to fresh two-year lows in the wake of the Fed’s inflation shift. Perennial dollar bulls have been caught off guard with the unwind, however the Fed’s recent shift on inflation targeting only underlines that bears called this early.
More inflation and a central bank prepared to let it happen should reduce the purchasing power of the dollar and therefore it ought to weaken. However, with the buck usually a safe harbour, it shouldn’t soften too much more.
The pound was up, with GBPUSD pressing on the post-election euphoria high of last December a little above 1.34. There are Brexit risks ahead – talks recommence next week – but for the moment the major driver of this is the dollar’s weakness. Gold futures rose to $2,000/oz as the weaker dollar lifted commodity markets and US real rates – 10-year TIPS – have sunk again as inflation expectations rise.
الأسبوع المقبل: تقسيم AAPL وTSLA وتعديل Dow والرواتب غير الزراعية في محور الاهتمام
ما الذي يحدث بعد ذلك مع Apple وTesla فور دخول تقسيم أسهمهما حيز التنفيذ؟ كيف تتفاعل الطلة الجديدة لمؤشر Dow مع تحديثات السوق؟ وهل يمكن للرواتب غير الزراعية الأمريكية مواصلة توجه النمو القوي؟
تقسيم Apple وTesla
سيبدأ هذا الأسبوع كلٌ من Apple وTesla في التداول بسعريهما الجديدين بعد إتمام تقسيميهما الحديثين. ينخفض AAPL إلى الربع، وTSLA إلى الخمس. وشهد كلا السهمين زيادة عظيمة في القيمة منذ إعلان التقسيم، مع قفز Apple فوق 500 دولار للسهم في الأسبوع الماضي ومواصلة Tesla الارتفاع بعد تجاوزه 2،000 دولار.
كثيرًا ما تنخفض الأسهم بعد عمليات التقسيم، حيث يبيع حملة الأسهم بعض من أسهمهم الإضافية لجني بعض الأرباح من ارتفاع القيمة الحديث، لكن هذا قد يكون أمرًا مؤقتًا. ستكشف Apple قريبًا عن أحدث مجموعات iPhone، والتي تشمل طرازات 5G التي طال انتظارها. يمكن أن يشهد حدث Tesla القادم «يوم البطارية»، والمقرر عقده يوم 22 سبتمبر، إعلان الشركة ابتكارات جديدة تحسن من مجموعة سياراتها وأدائها.
يمكنك أن تعرف المزيد حول تقسيم الأسهم وكيف تؤثر على أي تداولات مفتوحة هنا.
طلة جديدة لمتوسط Dow Jones الصناعي
بعد تقسيم سهم Apple، سيصبح متوسط Dow Jones الصناعي مختلفًا تمامًا من هذا الأسبوع فصاعدًا. إن Dow مؤشر أسعار مرجحة، بخلاف S&P 500 المؤسس على القيمة السوقية، لذا فإن 75% انخفاض في سعر سهم Apple فرض القيام بالعديد من التغييرات.
بداية، لم يعد لسهم Apple الترجيح الأكبر في المؤشر، بل سيهبط من المركز الأول إلى حوالي المركز 17. يعني هذا أن تقلبات السهم سيكون لها تأثير أقل على Dow مما كان لها فيما سبق. سيصبح سهم United Health السهم الأكبر في المؤشر، وبالتباعية سيكون له نفوذ أكبر.
بالإضافة إلى هذا، فإن العديد من الأسهم قد سقطت من المؤشر لتفسح المجال لأسهم جديدة للحفاظ على تشكيله الذي تمثل الأسهم التقنية فيه ربعه تقريبًا. يمكنك قراءة المزيد حول التغيرات هنا.
أرباح Zoom Video Communications
لقد صار Zoom أداة ضرورية للأعمال في جميع أنحاء العالم منذ بداية الجائحة. وقد شهد أيضًا ارتفاعًا شديدًا مفاجئًا في الاستخدام الشخصي، مع مستخدمين يستخدمونه في كل شيء من المواعدة الليلية إلى بث حفلات الزفاف وحتى الجنازات. فارتفع عدد المستخدمين فجأة إلى 354% عام مقابل عام أثناء الربع الأول للشركة، مع ارتفاع الإيرادات إلى 169%.
نتيجة لهذا تكالب المستثمرون على السهم، حتى ارتفع ZM بصورة صاروخية بنسبة 330% حتى الآن هذا العام.
ويتطلع المحللون هذه المرة إلى مبيعات بقيمة 500 مليون دولار تقريبًا وأرباح سهم بقيمة 0.45 دولار للسهم – وهو ما يساوي نمو عام مقابل عام بنسبة 462.5%.
هل يقلص بنك الاحتياطي الأسترالي معدل الفائدة النقدية الرسمية؟
يجتمع بنك الاحتياطي الأسترالي هذا الأسبوع. وقد أطلق صناع السياسة المزيد من التيسير الكمي في الشهر الماضي، وأقروا بأنه سيكون هناك تضرر اقتصادي من قرار تطبيق حظر كامل على فيكتوريا – ثاني أكبر ولاية من حيث السكان والناتج، لكنهم تركوا معدلات الفائدة دون تغيير.
تظهر العقود الآجلة النقدية من ASX أن أغلبية ضئيلة من المشاركين في السوق يتوقعون أن يخفض بنك الاحتياطي الأسترالي الفائدة إلى 0% هذه المرة. وبالرغم من هذا طرح المحافظ فيليب لوي من قبل فكرة خفض الفائدة إلى 0.1% إذا كان هناك حاجة ضرورية للمزيد من التعديلات، لذا فحتى إن رأى صناع السياسة حاجة إلى المزيد من التيسير فقد لا يصلون إلى الصفر.
الرواتب غير الزراعية الأمريكية
بالطبع ستكون بيانات الرواتب غير الزراعية الأمريكية التي تصدر يوم الجمعة، محور الاهتمام الرئيسي لهذا الأسبوع. مرة أخرى تجاوز نمو الوظائف التطلعات في الشهر الماضي، بالرغم من أن معدل التعافي انكسر إلى 1.763 مليون، حيث أن عودة ارتفاع أعداد حالات كورنا أبطأت من التوظيف.
وواصلت مطالبات البطالة الحديثة إظهار انخفاض أعداد المطالبات الأولية والمستمرة؛ حيث انخفض عدد المتقدمين إلى تأمين البطالة لأول مرة دون 1 مليون في الأسبوع المنتهي في 8 أغسطس، للمرة الأولى منذ بدء الجائحة. لقد انخفض متوسط المطالبات لأربعة أسابيع بصورة مستمرة لعدة أسابيع، وكذلك أرقام المطالبات المستمرة.
تسليط الضوء على XRay هذا الأسبوع
اقرأ كامل الجدول الزمني لتحليل السوق المالي والتدريب عليه.
|07.15 UTC||Daily||European Morning Call|
|12.00 UTC||31-Aug||Master the Markets|
|From 15.30 UTC||1-Sep||Weekly Gold, Silver, and Oil Forecasts|
|17.00 UTC||3-Sep||Election2020 Weekly|
الأحداث الاقتصادية الأساسية
أحترس من أكبر الأحداث على التقويم الاقتصادي هذا الأسبوع:
|12.00 UTC||31-Aug||German Preliminary CPI|
|After-Market||31-Aug||Zoom Video Communications – Q2 2021|
|00.45 UTC||01-Sep||China Caixin Manufacturing PMI|
|4.30 UTC||01-Sep||RBA Official Cash Rate Decision|
|7.15 – 8.00 UTC||01-Sep||Finalised Eurozone Manufacturing PMIS|
|8.30 UTC||01-Sep||Finalised UK Manufacturing PMI|
|10.00 UTC||01-Sep||Eurozone Flash CPI|
|14.00 UTC||01-Sep||US ISM Manufacturing PMI|
|1.30 UTC||02-Sep||Australia Quarterly GDP|
|14.30 UTC||02-Sep||US EIA Crude Oil Inventories|
|1.30 UTC||03-Sep||Australia Trade Balance|
|00.45 UTC||03-Sep||China Caixin Services PMI|
|7.15 – 8.00 UTC||03-Sep||Finalised Eurozone Services PMIs|
|8.30 UTC||03-Sep||Finalised UK Services PMI|
|12.30 UTC||03-Sep||US Jobless Claims|
|14.00 UTC||03-Sep||US ISM Nonmanufacturing PMI|
|14.30 UTC||03-Sep||US EIA Natural Gas Storage|
|1.30 UTC||04-Sep||Australia Retail Sales|
|6.00 UTC||04-Sep||German Factory Orders|
|12.30 UTC||04-Sep||US Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate|
Dow reshuffle: Exxon, Pfizer, Raytheon out; Amgen, Salesforce.com, Honeywell in
Exxon Mobil, Raytheon and Pfizer are to be dropped – all stocks dropped on Tuesday after the announcement late on Monday. As of August 31st, they will be replaced by Honeywell, Salesforce.com and Amgen. All three rose sharply on anticipated rebalancing into these stocks by passive and tracker funds.
It leaves United Health the largest stock on the Dow, with the Apple stock split reducing its weighting as the Dow is a price-weighted index. Many may question why the likes of Amazon, Facebook or Alphabet have not been included instead, but the thinking around index composition for the Dow has never been entirely clear.
What do hedge funds, analysts and insiders say about these new Dow components?
Apple and Tesla announce stock splits – here’s what you need to know
Apple and Tesla have both announced that they will split their stocks at the end of this month. Apple shareholders will be granted three additional shares for each one they hold, while Tesla shareholders will receive another four shares for each one they hold.
The price of each share will be divided by the size of the split to reflect the increased supply: AAPL will start trading at 0.25 times the pre-split price, while Tesla stock will trade at 0.2 times the pre-split price.
But why are Apple and Tesla splitting their stocks, and how will this affect your trades?
Why are Apple and Tesla splitting their stocks?
Apple was the first to announce its stock split earlier this month, followed a few days later by Tesla. Both shares have rallied hard since the announcements although a split shouldn’t theoretically affect their value.
Stock splits usually happen for two reasons: to increase liquidity and to make the stock more attractive to retail investors.
An asset’s liquidity refers to how easily it can be bought and sold without impacting its price. Putting more shares into circulation often increases its trading volume, which can narrow the spread between bid and ask prices. This could make it easier for buyers and sellers to get a fair price for the shares they want or have.
Apple stock currently trades for around $430 per share, while Tesla has surged towards $2,000 recently. The high valuation could be putting investors off. Shares are often bought and sold in standardised blocks – a “board lot” of 100 shares would cost an investor $43,000. If the stock were split today, 100 shares would cost $10,750.
However, modern ways of trading shares (such as leveraged products like Contracts for Difference) have made it more affordable to trade even expensive stocks, so the benefit isn’t as obvious as it used to be
Regardless of the why the decision was made, investors have taken it as a sign of confidence in the stock – Apple and Tesla wouldn’t want to lower their share price if the companies felt that there wasn’t the potential for further appreciation.
How will the stock splits affect my trades?
On August 31st Apple stock will start trading at a quarter of the pre-split price, and Tesla will begin trading at a fifth of the pre-split price.
Any existing positions on AAPL CFDs will be closed at the original opening price and new positions opened at the new split-adjusted price but for four times more units. The same will happen with positions on TSLA CFDs, but with five times more units.
See below for an example – note that the prices given are based upon the market value as of August 20th and are for indicative purposes only.
- Before the split you have 100 units of Apple CFDs, each valued at $462 for a total value of $46,200.
- When the stock is split your position for 100 units will be closed at the original opening price (so P&L will display as zero) and a new position will be opened that is four times larger. In this instance your holdings would now be for 400 units of Apple CFDs.
- The price of each unit will be worth a quarter of the pre-split price, meaning in this example each unit is valued at $115.50 for a total for $46,200 – exactly as before.
If you didn’t already have a position in Apple and wanted to trade it, or want to expand an existing position, you would be able to buy the same quantity of units for a lower price, or more units for the same cost as before.
In effect, the size of your AAPL and TSLA positions will be multiplied by the same quantity as the stock prices are divided by, meaning the value of your holdings will not change.
How the Apple split will impact the Dow
Anyone trading the Dow will also need to pay attention to the Apple stock split.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index, so when Apple’s stock price drops thanks to the split the company will no longer be the index’s biggest constituent (that will be UnitedHealth).
Moves in Apple stock will therefore have less of an influence on the Dow than they currently do.
Will other companies copy Apple and Tesla?
Investors are now looking to other tech giants to see whether they decide to follow suit. Amazon and Alphabet will be of particular interest – Amazon’s stock price is over $3,100, while Alphabet is trading near $1,500 at the time of writing.
A lower stock price for Apple would make the stock more attractive, and Amazon and Alphabet may want to ensure they aren’t pricing potential investors out of the market. However, as the huge cost of an individual share in either of them proves, neither Amazon nor Alphabet has felt the need to resist high prices in the past.
Fed minutes waltz away with risk appetite
FOMC minutes are casting a shadow over markets and underline that any recovery is not going to be a straight line of advances. The Fed layered on the risks and caution thick, but didn’t come up with any sweeteners for the market in the shape of more easing.
The US dollar roared back, gold tanked, and stocks are wobbling after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting left investors a little disappointed. Members clearly backed away from yield curve control and seemed to be in less of a hurry to push for clearer forward guidance.
‘With regard to the outlook for monetary policy beyond this meeting, a number of participants noted that providing greater clarity regarding the likely path of the target range for the federal funds rate would be appropriate at some point,” the minutes said. This use of the phrase ‘at some point’ indicated members are not in a rush to tie rate hikes to specific economic goals. The Fed also noted that most members judged yield curve control ‘would likely provide only modest benefits in the current environment’.
The FOMC meets again in mid-September and will be reviewing the recent economic progress. For now it seems the Fed doesn’t feel the need to go quickly on more explicit forward guidance as the economy is still ‘in’ the pandemic – as long as cases rage we know what the Fed will do. The question comes on the exit – how quickly does the economy need to recover into the autumn for the Fed to feel the need to tie tightening to specific economic goals – the purpose of which would be to keep markets on an even keel.
Equities trip on FOMC minutes
The S&P 500 flirted with 3,400 in the early part of Wednesday’s session but shot 50pts lower after the minutes were released, ending down 0.44% to 3,374.85. The Dow and Nasdaq both tripped up as well. Asian markets fell overnight. European equity indices are taking their cue from this weak handover and dropped over 1% in early trade, before stocks pulled off the lows after China’s ministry of commerce said this morning that US-China trade talks would resume in the coming days. Vix futures are still pointing to increased volatility as we head towards the US election in November.
Apple hits $2tn market cap
Apple advanced to a new record high and became the world’s first $2tn company as it rose above $467 but closed flat at $462.83. There is a lot going on here – some of which is driven by Apple’s business and some of which is due to external factors. Apple has created a brand with immense power, and investors have really bought into the pivot towards Services to generate more sustainable revenues than being a pure play hardware manufacturer.
The upcoming rollout of 5G iPhones is a prime factor, as is its very strong balance sheet. I also think we could throw in the upcoming stock split as a factor as despite the fact it ought not to matter to the share price, it will undoubtedly make it easier for retail investors – a growing crop of US day traders – to buy the shares. Cf Tesla. And it’s a Covid-winner – the thirst for high quality growth has been well documented.
Dollar up, Brexit headline risks could weigh on sterling
The dollar caught a strong bid after the minutes. EURUSD fell from 1.1940 to 1.1840 where it has found support and is pushing off this level to pare some of the losses this morning. Cable also shipped two big figures in the last day and is now under 1.31 with near-term horizontal support at 1.3050. Brexit headline risks remain as trade talks continue this week – update coming tomorrow but we could get wire reports to knock the stuffing out of sterling. Overall if this is a cyclical dollar bear market then we would see this as a temporary blip.
Delivery Hero – a beneficiary of an increase in orders due to the pandemic – has been named the replacement for the disastrous, scandal ridden Wirecard on the DAX. The food delivery company will join the German blue-chip index on Monday. Delivery Hero is on course to deliver one billion orders this year, thanks in large part to the lockdowns.
Another sub-1m print for US jobless figures?
US initial jobless claims today are expected to come in under 1m again, with continuing claims at 15m. Last week’s report showed jobless claims fell under 1m for the first time since the pandemic, but unemployment levels remain exceptionally high and the concern is that temporary layoffs become permanent. The rate of change is not going to improve – the easy wins are behind us and the hard slog lies in front.
EIA crude oil inventories showed a draw of 1.6m barrels last week, while gasoline stocks declined by 3.3m barrels. WTI crude prices nudged up to $43.20 before pulling back as risk assets came under pressure from the Fed minutes. Copper prices broke above $3 for the first time in over two years but failed to sustain the move after the minutes and pared gains.
Tomorrow morning watch for Eurozone PMIs (ignore) and UK retail sales. Sales rebounded 13.9% in June after May’s 12.3% jump, which almost took total sales back to where they were before the pandemic. We know however that these masks huge shifts in how people spend their money. We also know that when furlough schemes end and we get a real increase in unemployment, people will be tightening their belts.
FTSE 100 completes 400pt round trip this week
Stocks turned broadly weaker yesterday as investors reacted to some stinky data from Europe and the US. Overnight Asian data has also had the whiff of soft cheese that’s been left out too long. Stocks are softer once more, though most of Europe is on holiday so the focus is on London until New York opens.
The S&P 500 eased back almost 1% to relinquish the 61.8% retracement at 2934 but closing at 2912 it finished well off the lows. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 recorded their best months since 1987 as equity markets rebounded on central bank largesse, government bailouts and the outperformance of US tech over just about anything else. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was up 19% for the month and is nearly flat for the year. It’s shame we don’t really have any tech firms left, as nothing else is growing.
The FTSE 100 endured a terrible session, finishing 3.5% weaker as Shell tumbled, just holding onto 5900 and the 38.2% retracement of the drawdown. At Friday’s open the index shipped another 2% to break under 5800 and move back to where it opened on Monday at 5,752, completing a 400-pt round trip this week. This will be a level bulls will seek to defend. RBS shares rallied 3%, whilst Lloyds fell 4%. RBS said profits fell 59% to £288m as it set aside £800 for loan losses. But revenues were down just 1.6% at £3.2bn – Lloyds reported an 11% decline in revenues. Something doesn’t look right.
South Korean exports declined 24.3%, the worst slump in 11 years. Japanese factory activity fell to its lowest since 2009. The AIG Australian PMI dropped by 17.9 points to 35.8 in April, its largest month-to-month fall in the 28 years since it began. New Zealand consumer confidence fell 21 points in April to 84.8, where it troughed in 2008. Today’s main event will be the US ISM manufacturing PMI, which is seen declining to 36.7 from 49.1 a month ago.
Donald Trump is threatening new tariffs on China in retaliation for the coronavirus – trade tensions back on the agenda won’t be terribly positive for risk appetite but for now remains something on the margins. But the US and Europe will demand China steps up – if we talk about what permanent changes are taking place or what trends have accelerated sharply, then deglobalisation has to be at the forefront.
Apple shares declined in extended trading after it reported a slowdown in revenue growth and declined to offer guidance for the June quarter. It will however continue to buy back stock and increased its share repurchase programme by $50bn. Revenues from iPhones declined 7% to $29bn, but Services revenues rose 16% to $13.3bn. Overall revenue growth was down to +0.5% vs 9% in the previous quarter.
Amazon shares also dipped after hours as it warned massive costs incurred because of Covid-19 could lead it to a first quarterly loss in 5 years. Amazon always spends big when required and is prepared to make the investment at the expense of short-term earnings per share metrics.
Despite these results, both Apple and Amazon are in the camp where you think they will be thriving under the new world order. More smartphone time – yes, more home delivery – yes, more cloud servers required – yes.
Crude oil continues to find bid with front month WTI running to $20 before dropping back to $19. Crude prices are stabilising as OPEC+ cuts begin to take effect this month, potentially easing the supply-demand imbalance. Markets are also more confident about US states reopening for business, which will fuel demand for crude products like gasoline. Texas oil regulators don’t seem prepared to mandate production cuts, with chairman Wayne Christian against plans for 1m bpd reduction.
In FX, yesterday saw a pretty aggressive 4pm fix as we approached the month end. GBPUSD made a big-figure move and rallied through 1.25 and beyond 1.26 but turned back as it approached the Apr 14th swing high at 1.2650 and the 200-day SMA. It looked an easy fade but the euro also spiked but has held its gains, with EURUSD trading at 1.0960, having briefly dipped to 1.0830 after the ECB decision.
GBPUSD fades after hitting near-term resistance
EURUSD – clears 50-day SMA, looking to scale Apr 14th high
Week Ahead: Bumper week with FOMC, ECB, FAANGS & GDP
Welcome to your guide to the week ahead in the markets. Remember you can now find all the key events affecting the markets in our new Events Calendar in the platform.
European Central Bank rate decision
Last week ECB president Christine Lagarde allegedly told EU leaders during a private video summit that the bloc could be facing a drop in GDP of up to 15%, and that their efforts to contain the outbreak have been both too little and too late. Monetary policy can only go so far, but the ECB does still have room to manoeuvre. Expansion of QE will likely be the first port of call if policymakers decide more needs to be done, but minutes from the March 18th meeting show that cutting rates was floated, too.
FOMC decision – has the Fed got any ammunition left?
What’s left for the Federal Reserve to do? Rates have been slashed to zero, and that’s where futures markets see them staying well into 2021 at least. And it’s hard to announce more QE when you’ve already committed to unlimited asset purchases. The key question is what the FOMC has left in reserve in case its vast stimulus measures aren’t enough. Will policymakers set negative rates? Will they buy corporate stocks? Will they explicitly target yields on government bonds? Markets will be looking for reassurance that policymakers still have plenty of ammunition left.
Bumper week of earnings with Apple, Alphabet, Facebook reporting
Netflix has already reported earnings, but this week sees the rest of the FAANG group offering up their quarterly figures. Tesla and Microsoft are also amongst the heavy hitters providing updates this week.
US, Eurozone GDP
We’ve seen piecemeal evidence of the impact COVID-19 has had on the US and Eurozone economies thanks to industrial data, PMIs, and business sentiment figures. But now it’s time to get the full picture, as the US and Eurozone will both publish estimates of Q1 growth. It was initially believed that moderate growth in January and February would have softened the blow from social distancing and widespread lockdowns that went into effect in March. Now the consensus is that the recession expected in Q2 arrived much earlier. Estimates vary wildly, but no matter how dire the results, the figures for Q2 are likely to be way worse.
Heads-Up on Earnings
|After-Market||28-Apr||Alphabet – Q1 2020|
|After-Market||29-Apr||Microsoft – Q3 2020|
|After-Market||29-Apr||Facebook – Q1 2020|
|After-Market||29-Apr||Tesla – Q1 2020|
|After-Market||30-Apr||Apple – Q2 2020|
|After-Market||30-Apr||Amazon – Q1 2020|
|03.00 UTC||28-Apr||BOJ Rate Decision & Outlook Report|
|07.00 UTC||28-Apr||Spanish Unemployment Rate Q1|
|14.00 UTC||28-Apr||US CB Consumer Confidence|
|01.30 UTC||29-Apr||Australia Quarterly CPI|
|12.00 UTC||29-Apr||Germany Preliminary CPI|
|12.30 UTC||29-Apr||US Advance GDP QoQ|
|14.30 UTC||29-Apr||US EIA Crude Oil Inventories|
|18.00 UTC||29-Apr||FOMC Rate Decision|
|09.00 UTC||30-Apr||Eurozone Flash GDP|
|11.45 UTC||30-Apr||ECB Rate Decision and Statement|
|12.30 UTC||30-Apr||US Initial Jobless Claims|
|14.30 UTC||30-Apr||US EIA Natural Gas Storage|
Netflix, Apple, Disney: Who will you back in the battle of the streamers?
Netflix was once the king of streaming, but its dominance could be coming to an end. Competition has already been fierce thanks to Amazon Instant Video and Hulu, but the streaming market is about to get a lot more crowded.
NFLX has now turned negative on a year-to-date basis, with the stock feeling the pressure thanks to an uncertain outlook for the company. Both Apple and Disney are launching their streaming services this year and Netflix is sure to suffer as a result – especially as both drastically undercut its pricing.
Apple TV+ launches on November 1st and reportedly has a budget of $6 billion in order to help it get some of Hollywood’s biggest stars involved. Already on the starting line-up are Reese Witherspoon, Jennifer Aniston, Jason Momoa and Oprah.
Apple is offering a first-year subscription completely free with the purchase of any new Apple device – a great way to leverage its existing market even if they do already have other subscriptions.
However, it remains unclear whether Apple TV+ will also have a library of licensed shows and films alongside its own original content. Without this its offering could seem rather sparse at launch. The service will launch with nine shows and Apple plans to add another five over the next few months.
This lack of choice could see consumers treating Apple TV+ more as a supplement to Netflix – are many really going to cancel their subscriptions for the sake of nine shows?
Is Disney a bigger threat to Netflix than Apple?
While Apple has the capital to throw behind new content, Disney represents a more established threat. Its streaming service, Disney+ is set to launch with an extensive back catalogue of beloved classics. And that’s not to mention mega-franchises like Star Wars and the Marvel Cinematic Universe, as well as content from National Geographic. This is a much bigger blow to Netflix.
Like Netflix and Apple, Disney will also be investing heavily in new shows. In the first year the service will premiere over 25 original series, as well as 10 films.
In this respect, Apple seems like something of an outlier. It’s tiny library of original shows may attract Apple enthusiasts, and the small price tag might see it sit alongside consumer’s existing subscriptions. Given that a lot of consumers will be getting the first year free anyway, it will be a while before we know whether those initial subscribers translate to paying subscribers in twelve months’ time.
Apple could be hoping to use its TV+ offering as a way of ensuring brand loyalty. Amazon already does this with its Instant Video Service. It’s only a few pounds or dollars more each year to opt for the full Prime subscription, which also includes free delivery and music streaming.
Even if it is built to sit alongside its competitors, it still creates problems for Netflix. The last time the company raised prices it lost subscribers – with more alternatives out there Netflix will have to think twice before it ups its costs again. Just how loyal are Netflix customers: if the company raises its prices will they drop rivals to free up disposable income or just jump from the most expensive ship?
Iger: Apple and Disney might have merged if Jobs were still alive
As Apple stock nears its all-time highs, Disney CEO Bob Iger muses in an extract from his new autobiography that the two companies probably would have joined forces by now if the company’s founder Steve jobs were still alive.
Bob Iger and Steve Jobs were good friends, having served on the boards of each other’s companies for many years. Jobs had been on Disney’s board since 2006 after the company acquired Pixar for $7.4 billion, while Iger has been a board member at Apple since 2011.
Now, with both companies announcing competing streaming services, Iger has chosen to resign from the Apple board. He had warm words for Apple’s current CEO Tim Cook, his fellow board members, and the company as a whole. But his relationship with Apple could have been closer still, he believes.
In his upcoming autobiography, an extract of which has been published in Vanity Fair, Iger says:
“With every success the company has had since Steve’s death, there’s always a moment in the midst of my excitement when I think, I wish Steve could be here for this.”
“It’s impossible not to have the conversation with him in my head that I wish I could be having in real life. More than that, I believe that if Steve were still alive, we would have combined our companies, or at least discussed the possibility very seriously.”
Appney? Disple? Could Apple and Disney really have merged?
While Iger may have dreamed of a union between Apple and Disney, and many analysts speculated over the prospect, it’s highly unlikely that a deal of that sort could go through today.
Even if Tim Cook likes what he reads in Iger’s autobiography, there would be a huge number of hurdles to overcome.
Regulatory scrutiny, particularly over tech companies, has increased significantly in recent months. The Trump administration, although business friendly and borderline allergic to red tape, is currently in the midst of an antitrust probe into Apple, along with Google, Facebook and Amazon.
Apple has a market capitalisation in excess of $1 trillion. Next to this Disney’s $246 billion market cap may seem quaint, but if Apple were to acquire it, it would be the biggest deal in history. It would have thrown up a huge number of issues at a time when the company is already being heavily scrutinised.
But it’s a deal that would have made sense: Apple has recently announced its own streaming service, but the company has little experience in this realm. Disney’s resources, not to mention its extensive back catalogue of content, could have done a lot to help Apple+ take on Netflix.
Instead, Disney and Apple are left with rival streaming services – Disney’s is $2 per month dearer than Apple’s, but promises to launch with some of the most loved and successful movies, TV shows, and franchises on the planet. Apple has the money to invest in its own great content, but in this respect it will be playing catch up to Netflix.
So even though a merger with Apple may have been desirable, the future is looking pretty solid for Disney on its own. Apple+, on the other hand, remains unproven.