الثلاثاء Feb 15 2022 11:30
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Natural gas prices rose at the start of the week on higher European pricing, but gains could be capped by expected warmer-than-normal weather for the US. Unlike European natural gas contracts, there was no significant impact on US Henry Hub prices from the situation in Russia/Ukraine, albeit prices have trended higher after gapping up on Monday.
Certainly, though, markets are on hook for any moves by Russia, be that to invade or to de-escalate and US prices, though less affected than European markets, will be sensitive to headline risk.
Prices could benefit from the US sending more LNG to Europe should there be more disruptions to local supply. Around two-thirds of American LNG volumes we directed to Europe last month, compared to 61% in December.
Nat gas prices following a have recovered after flows in the Yamal-Europe pipeline were halted. Prices slumped 30% between Feb 3rd and Feb 10th.
Technical picture is mixed. As of Tuesday, prices had cleared the 50-day moving average at 4.08, sitting around the 200-day moving average at 4.26. RSI has turned up, MACD bearish crossover still in play.
According to NatGasWeather.com, US demand will swing between HIGH and MODERATE the next 7-days.
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